Audition?

So, the deadline for Iran's mullahs to respond to our negotiation offer is in less than a week. A few days later, we meet with the G-8.

And before both, July 9th is the anniversary of the 1999 student uprising in Iran. Iranians may demonstrate on this day.

I'd say--if I was the devious type--that if we were going to support an uprising in Iran we'd want evidence of their concrete desire to be free before we commit to overthrowing the mullahs. Announcing our support of dissidents who don't have the willingness to go all the way would be worse than doing nothing.

Yet the dissidents will also be wary of rising up without our support. They recall Iraq in 1991, maybe Hungary in 1956, and perhaps the Bay of Pigs, too. You'll recall how the president extolled Hungary's revolt recently (and many months shy of the actual 50th anniversary), implicitly lamenting our lack of support to those freedom fighters. Was this part of a diplomatic dance with dissidents inside Iran? And our continued resolve inside Iraq must help with our efforts to engineer a revolt--if this is indeed what we are doing.

So is July 9th an audition to see if the Iranian dissidents and regime opponents are serious about reclaiming their country? Will Iranian regular armed forces and even some Pasdaran commanders who aren't happy witht he mullahs be watching to see how many people march and protest? Will they watch the strength of the Basij in response?

And if the anniversary is marked by large-scale protests and ineffective repression, would a mullah refusal to respond clearly and positively to our negotiating offer a few days later give us the excuse we need for discussions at the G-8 that lead to our support of a real uprising to overthrow the mullahs?

Pure speculation. For those with a devious mind, of course.