Interestingly, Strategypage says Iran is trying to get their Iraqi pawns to take action (as an aside, who are only our allies ever described as "poodles"?):
Iran is trying to persuade pro-Iranian militias in Iraq (the Badr and Sadr groups) to come out against the Israeli attack on Lebanon, and follow up with an attack on American troops in Iraq. In the Arab world, Israel is seen as a puppet of America, propped up by American power so the Israelis can persecute the Arab people (mainly the Palestinians). Anyway, that's how the story goes, and now the Iranians want to see Shia Arabs in Iraq do something about it. The Shia Arabs, like most Arabs, are reluctant to go to war with America.
Aside from answering the question of who strikes first, the Lebanon crisis is interesting because it is not the ideal way to strike first. Have the Iranians been trying since the Samarra bombing to start their offensive in Iraq but had no luck in getting the Sadr and Badr groups to rise up and gett killed in the service of Tehran?
If Iran could not get their local hand puppets in Iraq to fight and went to their backup Lebanese proxies to open an attack, this attack in Lebanon is far less potent since it does not attack our weak point of public opinion by ramping up problems in Iraq and just adds Israel to our side and puts Syria at risk of defeat with Israel in the fight.
But in the end, Sadr, Badr, Hizbollah, and Assad's regime are just tools to be used by Iran and used up if needed to buy time. Once Iran has nukes, the mullahs won't need proxies to defend themselves or strike enemies--they'll be able to do both directly behind a nuclear shield.
Also, since my first worry was that Iran would strike in Iraq to try to reverse our gathering victory there, is their failure to strike inside Iraq an admission that Iran doesn't think it could work or that the local Shia radicals don't think it would work? Or neither?
Finally, with Iran involved, the Hamas operation from Gaza is just a side show. How demeaning is that for Hamas?
Anyway, if Iran is ramping up the fight to hit us, we should take advantage of the opportunity to destroy the mullah regime completely.
