Relations between Japan and Russia have been at a low point since Nov. 1, when President Dmitry Medvedev defied Japan and became the first top Russian leader to visit one of the four northern islands claimed by Japan but held by Russia.
Japan should realize it has a good opportunity to mend ties with Moscow by taking advantage of the growing rift between Russia and China. Japan should explain to Russia the importance of strategically working together.
The author points to increasingly visible Russian worry about China and South Korean efforts that got Russia to issue statements against North Korea over the recent island bombardment as points to bolster the idea that Japan can get Russia to essentially flip.
The author says that Japanese leaders are too preoccupied with the Russian occupation (since 1945) of four northern islands that Japan wants returned.
The Japanese are missing an opportunity. They can be obsessed with the islands all they want. But at least look for ways to get them back with a little more subtlety than simply demanding them back.
Japan should seek better relations based on their mutual worry about China. This doesn't mean that Japan has to be a military ally against China. One, I don't want Japan to drag us into a war on behalf of Russia. Maybe we'd decide to help Russia in case of war with China, but that's a separate question.
Two, Japan has no nukes and China does. That makes it dangerous to be a belligerent in a war and reliant either on Russia or America risking a home city to provide extended deterrence to Japan in war against Chinese threats to use nukes.
But Japan could do what they did for us in the Korean War when Japanese factories were important to supplying our troops during the war--provide supplies to Russia in time of war. Russia's land line of communication back to European Russia is long and fragile. Russia will need every bit of that transportation link for military forces and supplies. Let Japan offer to supply civilian and dual-use supplies to Russia's Far East in time of war. A supply deal would give Japan good leverage to get back their northern islands by threatening to interrupt such supplies.
This approach could take time, obviously. And there ideally won't be a Russo-Chinese War in the future to trigger that particular opportunity. But even an extended period during which Russia sees Japan as a potential friend and ally (and supply source, more to the point) rather than a potential foe will loosen Russia's determination to hold those minor fruits of World War II. Maybe that could lead to a version of the US-British destroyers for bases deal while the US was a neutral in World War II where Japan gets the islands back on 99-year rent-free leases with an option to buy at the end of the lease period.
Russia needs a solid supply line for their Far East in time of war that doesn't slow down the transfer of military forces east that Russia would desperately need in a war. Japan is well positioned to send those supplies to Russia--possibly convoying them through the Sea of Japan up to Russian territorial waters with their own naval and air forces--and still avoid becoming a belligerent in a hypothetical Russo-Chinese War. If Japan makes sure their supplies aren't blatantly military, Japan's alliance with America would tend to blunt Chinese reactions.
Played right, a Japanese opening to Russia could earn Japan their northern islands back.
