Moving In

Stratfor writes that the army is moving in to take over the Egyptian government. The army, they say, has replaced the paramilitary police on the streets rather than supplementing them:

Now that the political structure of the state is crumbling, the army must directly shoulder the responsibility of security and contain the unrest on the streets. This will not be easy, especially given the historical animosity between the military and the police in Egypt. For now, the demonstrators view the military as an ally, and therefore (whether consciously or not) are facilitating a de facto military takeover of the state. But one misfire in the demonstrations, and a bloodbath in the streets could quickly foil the military’s plans and give way to a scenario that groups like the MB quickly could exploit. Here again, we question the military’s tolerance for Mubarak as long as he is the source fueling the demonstrations

Considerable strain is building on the only force within the country that stands between order and chaos as radical forces rise. The standing theory is that the military, as the guarantor of the state, will manage the current crisis. But the military is not a monolithic entity. It cannot shake its history, and thus cannot dismiss the threat of a colonel’s coup in this shaky transition.

There are a number of questions they pose.

--Can the senior officers of the army ease Mubarak out before an incident on the streets compels the army to crack down, thus forfeiting the good will of the people?

--Will mid-level officers see an opportunity to move up and take control?

--Will the Islamist Moslem Brotherhood make a play for power, possibly breaking the unity and discipline of the army by successfully appealing to the lower ranks who likely have portions sympathetic to the Moslem Brotherhood?

I'll ask if the government is truly paving the way for a military takeover on the assumption that the government's paramilitary police can't suppress the unrest? It seems rather early for the government to be calling it quits. Doesn't it make more sense for the government to be regrouping the police behind the shield of the more trusted army while hoping that the initial fury of the protesters will wane without police to confront?

I also question the idea that the protesters will accept a military takeover if that is the plan. Wouldn't that just put the army in the dangerous position of directly confronting protesters that I wondered if they could endure? won't that just make the army the new Mubarak to be opposed? Would protesters really believe that the army would pave the way for honest elections? Why would the army necessarily defuse the public anger?

Stratfor asks good questions, no doubt. And as professionals I have to give them some room to run on their analysis. But I often find I disagree with their analysis of events even if their facts seem impeccable. I guess I wished they asked more questions.

UPDATE: A good article on the balancing act the army is carrying out:

On Saturday, protesters jubilantly climbed atop army tanks and armored personnel carriers enforcing security in Cairo. They hugged and kissed the soldiers and posed for photographs with them. Some spray-painted the military vehicles with slogans demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.

In Tahrir Square in the center of the city, protesters hoisted an army officer waving an Egyptian flag on their shoulders and chanted "The people and the army are one hand together!"

The protests drove Mubarak to appoint intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president on Saturday, clearly setting up a succession that would hand power to his close confidant, a former army general, and keep control of Egypt in the hands of military men.

There were signs that the move could exhaust demonstrators' affection for the military — many protesters said the appointment was cronyism and the government needed purging from the top.

"If he is appointed by Mubarak, then he is just one more member of the gang," 43-year-old teacher Rafaat Mubarak, no relation to the president, said in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria. "We are not speaking about a branch in a tree, we are talking about the roots."

I don't assume the military is acting for itself rather than for the Mubarak regime.