Be Careful What They Wish For

Islamists in Jordan welcome the spread of unrest, believing it will topple pro-American rulers, and Iran believes it inspired Egyptians by their 1978 overthrow of the shah, which will prompt Islamist regimes across the Middle East. But while the odds of pro-American governments falling are simply reflecting the odds of so many regimes friendly to us, the nutballs shouldn't be so sure that the anti-American rulers won't be counted among the victims when the dust settles:

Iran's opposition leader expressed hope Saturday that protests engulfing Egypt can bring the kind of change that has so far evaded his own country.

Mir Hossein Mousavi compared the uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen with the protest movement that followed the 2009 disputed presidential election in Iran.

Sure, you can count the anti-American Middle East Moslem dictatorial governments as Lebanon (with Hezbollah now in charge), Syria, Gaza, Iran, and Libya (Khadaffi is scared--not friendly--despite giving up his WMD programs to us), so they are less likely to provide a victim of the unrest than the far larger number of pro-American dictators, but they won't be immune to the unrest. They just may have an advantage in having more troops willing to shoot at civilians. Which counts for a lot, of course.

And don't forget the relative rock of the Middle East that nobody is talking about as vulnerable to the wave of unrest--Iraq. As a democracy, Iraq has what the rest of the Middle East Moslem world says it wants. I just thought I'd mention that.

UPDATE: Doh. Toss in Sudan as an Arab state that is not our friend, to say the least, that could go if dominos really start falling.