The problem is that Kurds in Turkey might restart terrorism on a larger scale to win their own independence or to join the Kurds of Iraq (I actually doubt that the latter is likely given rivalries between the various groups of Kurds even within Iraq). Sadly, some of our politicians are foolishly promoting division of Iraq in a misguided effort to get us out of Iraq. This would likely prompt Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq. Unfortunately, triggers far less than independence for the Kurdish regions could spark conflict:
It would be ironic if, while the surge is beginning to show success in Baghdad, Senate leaders undercut Iraq's integrity. The Biden-Gelb plan may look good on paper. So did the Oslo Accords and, for that matter, the Bush administration's emphasis on holding free elections where they had never before been held. But in each case, good intentions were undermined by the same Achilles' heel: the unwillingness of U.S. officials to adopt a zero tolerance policy toward incitement and terrorism.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders continue to shelter the PKK. Whether their support is active or passive is irrelevant, for there are no acceptable levels of support for terror. Nor is it responsible to undercut the security of a long-term NATO ally like Turkey. Until Iraqi Kurdish leaders expel terrorists in their midst and renounce interests beyond Iraq's border, any congressional encouragement of ethnic federalism risks plunging the region into chaos.
We can't encourage the Iraqi Kurds to separate. And we can't let the Kurds actively or passively support terrorism in Turkey. The Turks will strike into Iraq if they continue to be hit by terrorists that are receiving sanctuary (even if just passively) in Kurdish regions. We can pressure the Turks to hold off only so long.
Any extra violence in Iraq--no matter what the cause or impact--will be treated as a sign of failure by our anti-war side. And Turkey will not accept terrorism coming out of Iraq any more than we would be happy to endure it. We may endure it from Pakistan, Syria, and Iran just as Turkey endures it from Iraq for now, but patience wears out in time without a solution.
We are not oblivious to the threat, of course:
Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Joseph Ralston, a special envoy tasked with countering the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, said Wednesday in an Associated Press interview that U.S. pressure has resulted in moves against the group's operations by Iraqi and European authorities.We must keep the Iraqi Kurds from wrecking the positive future they have in their current status. Are the Kurds so used to being screwed over that they can't accept their current success? The Kurds can't succeed without our help and if the Kurds spark a larger war, all guarantees for them are off. The Kurds must have patience. And we and they must take enough action against PKK terrorists to keep Turkey below their intervention threshold.
Turkish officials repeatedly have accused the United States of insufficient efforts to prevent attacks into Turkey from Iraq by the PKK, which has waged a guerrilla war for autonomy since 1984 at a cost of 37,000 lives. Turkey also has threatened military incursions into Iraq against the rebels, which the United States fears would alienate Iraqi Kurds, the most pro-American ethnic group in the region.
Ralston said the United States has not yet met Turkish demands for the capture of PKK operatives and destruction of a rebel base in a mountainous area of Iraq near the Turkish and Iranian border. He said, however, that the United States would consider options against the group available to a U.S. military stretched by many challenges in Iraq.
"All options are on the table," he said. "The PKK is a terrorist organization and needs to be put out of business."
Foreign policy is never simple. Competing interests compel us to balance what we do. Which is of course why I have some sympathy for the Pakistanis concerning the Afghan campaign. We want the Pakistanis to control their side of the border to keep Taliban and al Qaeda from hurting us in Afghansitan, but the Pakistani locals aren't cooperative or terrribly friendly about hunting the jihadis in their midst. And too much effort in the wild and barely controlled border regions by Pakistan could rebound against the very existence of a friendly Pakistani government.
If it isn't one thing, it's another.
