Stop Trying to Give Russia Goodness Lessons

Is India moving closer to the West pushing Russia to align more with China? That's Russia's choice. Is India really supposed to decline Western support in order to strengthen China's Mini-Me when China is growing in strength and aggressiveness? Really?

Maybe: 

India’s absolute tilt in the Western camp will further propel Russia into the Chinese fold.

Or, it's a straw man argument because the world isn't as absolute as that claim relies on, and India's move toward the West isn't total and India might actually pull Russia away from China's grip.

And even if Russia bows more deeply to China as a result of closer India-Western ties, we should reject the benefits of India as a friend? 

Stop acting as if Russia has no agency. They've chosen their destructive path and it is folly to pretend America--and now India--can calibrate words and policies to make the Russians nice guys. We can't stop Russia from being its own worst enemy. 

If Russia wants to keep its friendship with India, Russia can choose to stop being the vassal of India's growing enemy. Just as Russia can choose friendship with the West by choosing to stop waging war on Ukraine, stop threatening NATO with tanks and nukes, and in general stop being a-holes more interested in being feared than prospering.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Ship Got Real

The Navy needs to extend its air defense bubble around its warships again. Like a Phoenix rising from the appropriations ashes, a new missile emerges.

The Navy wants to reach out and touch incoming threats in INDOPACOM:

Thirty-two years after the US Navy cancelled its project to replace the Hughes AIM-54 Phoenix long-range air-to-air missile (AAM), the service has introduced into service a likely 300–400+ kilometre-range AAM to fulfil an apparently similar role known as the AIM-174B. Based on the Raytheon RIM-174/SM-6 Standard surface-to-air missile (SAM), the AIM-174 was a previously classified Special Access Program. ...

A possible target set for the now-in-service AIM-174B is what are sometimes referred to as high value airborne assets (HVAA). HVAAs include airborne early warning, electromagnetic combat and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft as well as aircraft capable of carrying long-range anti-ship missiles of various descriptions. The new missile could possibly also provide a capability against air-launched ballistic missiles. 

I'm starting to think the Navy is taking the problem of sea control seriously.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Restoring the Ottoman Empire

America was a colony but is damned as imperial. Turkey was imperial but gets to cast in its lot with the colonized despite trying to rebuild imperial glory. Let's just be happy Turkey is pushing south to Cyprus, Iraq, Syria, Libya, the Horn of Africa, and the Persian Gulf.

Turkey entrenches in the Horn of Africa:

Turkey will deploy an unspecified number of naval forces to Somalia to help the Somali Federal Government (SFG) protect its territorial waters and build the Somali forces’ capacity to counter terrorism, piracy, smuggling, and other threats. The deployment is part of a defense and economic deal that Turkey signed with Somalia in February 2024 to reconstruct, equip, and train the Somali Navy in exchange for 30 percent of the revenue from resources found in Somalia’s offshore exclusive economic zone.

The pull of an imperial past is strong in Turkey under Erdogan.

As the initial link notes, Somalia wants help:

Somalia likely intends to use its partnership with Turkey to counter Ethiopia’s controversial port agreement with the de facto independent breakaway Somaliland region.

You may recall that deal between Puntland and Ethiopia to give Ethiopia access to a port. Which no doubt falls within the "other threats" category.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Libya Must Be Fabulous By Now

Life without America isn't all happiness and bike-path debates. Maybe it's not us. Maybe it's them.

Good luck with that: 

In recent weeks, Libya has been collapsing at every level. Increasing tensions between the ruling families, the Dabaibas and the Haftars, led Saddam Haftar to blockade Libya’s largest oilfield last week and later march his forces west, violating the 2020 ceasefire agreement. A few days later,  the parliament, under the Haftars’ influence, officially unrecognised prime minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba’s government and Libya’s Presidency Council. Then, on 18 August, the Presidency Council dismissed the long-standing central bank governor turned Haftar-ally Sadiq al-Kabir. This could be the final shock that sends Libya’s post-2020 status quo tumbling down into a civil war.

Ah, the glories of leading from behind!

I'm so old I remember when American involvement in foreign countries prevented locals from peacefully sorting out their differences:

Remember when liberals said America should have just gotten out of Iraq after overthrowing the dictator Saddam to allow the locals to work out their problems without America's troop presence mucking things up? Remember how they said America created and caused jihadis to flock to Iraq because we had troops there?

So Libya was the glorious opportunity to prove how a simple drive by shooting of the dictator would allow the locals to avoid the horrible impact of American liberation "occupation" and sort out their differences like reasonable people.

It's all "Hands off X!" and "Hands off Y!" at the soap-averse thug protection protest encampments.

Mind you, just because somebody needs us doesn't mean we have a responsibility to protect them. America's interests should dominate any discussion on our course of action. I'm just pointing out that the sorting out in Libya is just amazing.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Urban Warfare Relationship: It's Complicated

The megacity craze doesn't mean the Army shouldn't master urban warfare. But don't get fixated on megacities.

No doubt: 

Many NATO armies may not be prepared for large-scale urban warfare.

I want to avoid attacking into large cities, as I wrote in Army magazine, but we certainly want to understand how to exploit urban terrain to defend cities or towns. 

And sometimes America does need to take urban areas. Either smaller cities or parts of large cities. So be prepared. 

Still, mega-cities aren't our problem. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Scrapes the Bottom of the Barrel

Russia's effort to look like an ever-expanding horde to demoralize Ukraine and the West took a hit. Is the base of Putin's war supporters the most shocked about this revelation?

In an effort to contain the Ukrainian August Kursk incursion, Russia has redeployed troops from other parts of the front. This alone is odd. One would think Russia has local reserves available. Apparently not.

Unless Russia is ruthlessly maintaining its reserve by taking risks at the front. Which isn't a bad risk given Ukraine doesn't have enough troops to advance anywhere significant, really.

An interesting effect is away from the front:

Nothing since the Wagner mercenary uprising in June last year has put Russian soldiers and the radical patriots close to them so much at odds with the Ministry of Defense and General Headquarters. The atmosphere is rank, and worsening.

The ranks of such radical patriots may be prone to excitable reactions that they quickly put online. Perhaps they will settle down as the front settles down and some ground is recovered. If so, Putin has non-military reasons to cope with Ukraine's incursion sooner rather than later if it was just a military question.

In that light, this is interesting, if true (via Instapundit):

Important Stories said a temporary motorized rifle regiment of Russia's Aerospace Forces has been deployed to Kursk, which borders Ukraine's Sumy region.

The unit, created between May and June, consists of personnel from security and logistics companies, engineers, mechanics, some officers, and servicemen from a Russian spaceport. There are also personnel from special warehouses of the Aerospace Forces and radar stations in Russia's Voronezh region, who were previously in charge of manning Russia's nuclear deterrent.

It doesn't necessarily mean disaster for Russia. In an emergency any army would scrape together support personnel to hold the line. Russia has already seemingly stripped the rest of Russia for combat units to send them to Ukraine. That takes risks where the troops are now gone, both internally and on the border.

There are also risks to taking troops presumably specialized and trained in their specialty to use them as infantry cannon fodder. Early in the war Russia scraped their training establishment for officers to replace high officer losses at the front. One would think that hurt the ability to train officers for a while. This kind of scraping will hurt the parts of the Russian military that aren't fighting.

What will the radical patriots think of the image of wrecking the Russian military in a war that is failing to defeat a much smaller state on its western border? When the Russians may need their entire military for a much bigger threat to its territorial integrity and sphere of influence?

But perhaps Russia has bloated non-ground force military units. That would be one place to hide from the war without fleeing. And bribes could be paid for a cushy Aerospace Force job far from the front. 

Will we see Russian enforcers combing through the non-ground force military to grab those who are "quiet quitting" the war in uniform? If so, will that generate numbers of troops or will it be an opportunity to squeeze another bribe out of these troops who like the quiet life?

Or will the personnel raid go too deep and cripple the ability of the non-ground troop services to do their jobs? And how will the radical patriots react to a war that is wrecking the entire Russian military?

I don't know. But it does tell me that Russia is short of troops on the front, notwithstanding their continued grinding offensive in the Donbas. The horde is thinner than Putin wants us--or his radical patriot base of war supporters--to believe.

UPDATE (Monday): I've thought of Ukraine's Kursk operation as a raid. A raid that may fall back to fortifications on the Russian side of the border, but a raid nonetheless. But without a serious Russian reaction, Ukraine has little need to end the raid. So while I'm not sure what Ukraine is attempting, I'm still calling it a raid.

Is the Kursk incursion "strategic malpractice"? Don't be hasty. As a Battle of Trenton and Princeton raid to inflict a clear defeat on the enemy and bolster your morale, so far so good. If Russia masses to hammer the salient and Ukraine risks too much defending without inflicting a huge cost on Russia? Sure, malpractice.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Belarus is massing troops on Ukraine's northern border:

A Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, or even Belarus' military involvement in the war, would degrade Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko‘s ability to defend his regime (and be very unpopular domestically), and ISW has previously assessed that Lukashenko is extremely unlikely to risk combat with Ukraine that could weaken his regime or drastically increase Belarusian domestic discontent.

If you had to bet you'd say that Belarus is using its skeleton units (they require reservists to bring them up to strength) to pin Ukrainian forces in place. 

But if Lukashenko currently won't attack because of the risk to his regime you have to admit that his calculations could change overnight if Putin gives Lukashenko an offer he can't refuse. So I try not to assume Belarus won't join the war on Ukraine.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Is Ukraine's Kursk incursion going to trigger events that weaken Russia and lead to Ukraine's victory. Plausible but not likely to get that full result of a lot of conditional events flowing from the incursion. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Timely:

A third of the [Russian] military are more enthusiastic volunteers and conscripts. These staff the elite special operations, airborne, security and specialist units. In other words, while the government claims to have a million military personnel on duty, the reality is that there are only about 200,000 troops on active duty who are good at what they do and want to be in the military.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Per ISW, Russia is advancing at a satisfactory pace toward Pokrovsk in their Avdiivka salient. Indeed, Ukraine has pulled back in some areas. This remains a Russian priority. While Russia is stripping troops not on this front to deal with the Kursk incursion. 

I'm biased because I've long looked for this. But could these developments indicate Ukraine is preparing a serious counter-attack to pinch off the Avdiivka salient when the Russian Pokrovsk attack culminates? Hopefully short of Pokrovsk.

UPDATE (Thursday): Strategypage paints a dire picture for the Russians in getting men into uniform. Russia hides their problems, of course. But is it that bad?

UPDATE (Friday): Could Russia really run out of troops to sustain their current loss rate?

Is it so bad that Russia can't afford to keep a relatively small number of men in Africa? "Russia is withdrawing 100 of its paramilitary officers from Burkina Faso to help in the war in Ukraine."

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I also post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. Hell, share links! I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. 

Consequences: "Due to his administration’s passivity, Afghanistan has become a forgotten nation. Worse, under the Taliban’s rule, it remains a nexus of transnational terrorism. ... The absence of American counterterrorism leadership has forced Afghanistan’s near neighbours to engage with the Taliban[.]"

The "island" was destroyed: "A major fire, which may still be ongoing, has broken out on the former Soviet Kiev class aircraft carrier Minsk, which has been rotting away in a man-made lagoon just off a stretch of the Yangtze River in China for years now." A strange ending. 

Our European presence is about to go to five destroyers: "The first of two additional U.S. Navy destroyers the Pentagon plans to deploy to Europe to expand NATO sea power will pull in to Spain sometime in the fall[.]" In 1980 we had 28 warships in 6th Fleet. It's mostly a phantom fleet now.

The Army is modernizing its factories: "The Organic Industrial Base comprises 23 depots, arsenals and ammunition plants owned by the government."

Please don't call it a domino effect. Please don't call it a domino effect: "Preventing a forceful takeover of Taiwan by China is strategically important to America because the 'knock-on' effects of such a conflict would foment global chaos and misery, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said[.]" Whew!

Because China's existing and expanding missile arsenal is stabilizing? "China expressed its 'very dramatic' alarm over a mid-range missile system that the U.S. military recently deployed to the Philippines, and warned it could destabilize the region." May I express my very dramatic not-caring?

This is getting out of hand: "Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships collided at sea, damaging at least two vessels, in an encounter early Monday near a new flashpoint in their increasingly alarming confrontations in the disputed South China Sea." And China lies.

Keep out: "U.S. and South Korean troops kicked off a large-scale exercise Monday aimed at strengthening their combined defense capabilities against nuclear-armed North Korea, which again accused the allies of practicing an invasion." Despite that decades-old accusation, it's no longer preposterous.

AUKUS proceeds: "In Australia, U.S. submarine tender Emory S. Land pulled into HMAS Stirling naval base, Western Australia on Friday, marking its seventh port visit in Australia since the ship left its homeport of Guam on May 17, stated a Navy release."

Although the Houthi anti-shipping campaign is ostensibly about punishing Israel: "Costs for operators and prices for customers changed very little. The only real loser is Egypt whose revenue from Suez Canal tolls has sharply declined." Which means its really about Iran attacking Saudi Arabia.

Just give the bikers sabres and go full stupid: "armed Russian dirt bike mounted attackers were shot to pieces by the aimed firepower of the stationary [Ukrainian defenders]."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "which has dragged on ineffectively for over two years, has invited scrutiny of Russia’s military machine." As I predicted on the eve of war.

Is this a problem? "EU Initiative to Arm Ukraine: Beset by Allegations of Mismanagement and Corruption[.]" Sure, it's a problem for Ukraine. But helping Ukraine is lower down the EU's priority list.

Huh: "Military experts have suggested to Fox News Digital that it remains a distinct possibility Iran could declare itself a nuclear power this year with the United States' political future uncertain amid a tightly contested presidential election." If Iran announces enrichment capability, it already has nukes.

Air Force security guards returned fire at drive-by shooters at an entry to a Texas air base. Well that's disturbingly new. Say, guess where we taught Ukrainian pilots English? If Russians slipped across our unguarded border to do this, is that enough to protect the border?

Preparing to battle across the electromagnetic spectrum in northeastern lower peninsula Michigan.

Extraterritoriality: "the European Union may succeed in curtailing American freedom to an extent that the Axis powers could not have imagined. They may win, and our leaders have not said a thing yet about it." Our permit and license for free speech would be enough if our government tells the proto-empire to ef off. 

A Russian speaker in Havana visited TDR and had particular interest in this DOD press release. Hmm.

That is just the beginning of what Russia owes Ukraine: "The Czech Republic will use some of the interest earned on Russian assets frozen in the European Union to buy hundreds of thousands more artillery shells for Ukraine, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday." And spare me the Versailles Treaty nonsense.

Pain: "Inside Ukraine, Russia has switched from attacking Ukrainian military forces to going after civilian infrastructure. This reduces the habitability of Ukraine and forces more Ukrainians to leave their homeland. This is another example of the old Roman adage, “create a desert and call it peace”." Yeah. 

Strategersky. Vladolini still impresses, eh?

Hezbollah could strike American soil. Well, duh. But how dare you criticize Smart Diplomacy!®

From the "Well, Duh" files: "The Taliban continue to face a myriad of problems they are either unable or unwilling to solve. While they are secure in the short term, this may threaten to undermine the group’s hold on power in the coming years." But America decided to send aid rather than keep fighting. RIP R2P.

Do Iran's proxies want to die in larger numbers? "Iran projects power through a web of allied militias that it influences with money and weapons. But as the region sits on the brink of a wider conflict, the degree to which it can rely on its partners will be tested as never before." And how does Iran escape retribution?

China can't just turn on the baby fire hose after throttling the flow to a trickle for decades. And this result of that one-child policy breaks my heart: "an estimated 20 million baby girls 'disappeared' due to sex-selective abortions or infanticide[.]" My God. 

Oddly, the story does not name the group: "An active-duty soldier based in North Carolina has been indicted on charges of having lied to military authorities about his association with a group that advocated overthrowing the U.S. government and of trafficking firearms."

The flanks get together: "The foreign and defense ministers of India and Japan Tuesday held security talks in New Delhi, aiming to bolster their strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific as they seek to counter China’s increasingly assertive economic and military activities in the region."

Germany's army presence in Lithuania will be expanded to a full brigade at a new base under construction. 

The Marines prepare to say goodbye to the Harrier aircraft even as they were deployed during the ongoing Hamas War.

Worst-case: "In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea." Russia shouldn't assume who China aims its nukes at, of course.

Shoot, communicate, move on out: "The Army is restructuring its signal battalions as advancements in technology and a laser-focus on its network dovetail with a shift from brigade to division-centric combat plans." Because the big boys are back in town.

It would be nice to know if JLOTS work or if non-military objectives forced inappropriate use: "Just weeks after the U.S. military dismantled its aid pier off the Gaza Strip, ending its mission there, the Pentagon’s internal watchdog has launched an investigation into the capability used to build the pier."

It does keep Russian air defense pinned for internal defense: "Moscow came under one of the largest attacks by Ukrainian drones since the start of fighting in 2022, Russian authorities reported Wednesday, saying they destroyed all of those headed toward the capital."

Disagreement with Congress over how the Pentagon should prepared to ramp up defense production. Once I'd have sided with the Pentagon. But I've lost confidence in their judgment. Earn it back, I say.

Tanks: "Hungary is replacing its Cold War era force of 164 T-72 tanks with 38 Leopard 2 tanks. NATO has no guidelines for how many tanks each member must maintain but the total number of tanks maintained by all member nations is 4.600. Most of these are the 2,500 U.S. M1A1 tanks." 

If we don't help the Philippines win at the white hull level, the fight will go to the gray hull level: "Recent collisions between Chinese and Philippine ships in the South China Sea reflect Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the region and is clearly meant to test Manila’s relationship with Washington, experts say." 

The Navy could use land-based air power help: "The Air Force will send units from across the United States to the Pacific next summer for an exercise designed to test the way it plans to deploy forces in a potential conflict with China."

The Air Force has raised the idea of a light and cheaper F-35 despite the primary official focus being a 6th generation optionally crewed aircraft.

Et tu, Air Force? "The radar update is not going well, and the engine replacement plan has encountered difficulties, too. These problems have a government watchdog agency concerned that the B-52J has become a money pit."

Finland's defeat in 1940 is a template for Ukraine? "Yet today, the world remembers Finland as bravely fending off the behemoth next door, as they will the Ukrainians ..." Maybe. But Russia was invaded by Germany the next year; lost 20 million people; then had a Cold War with America. Kind of distracted, eh?

It may be a large aviation platform of some sort: "A state-owned Chinese shipbuilder said it's debuted the design of a 'mothership' for its coast guard." 

Via Instapundit, you didn't build that. Xi Jinping is following North Korea's precedent. 

How will Iran attack? "IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi warned on August 20 that Iran will 'definitely' retaliate against Israel 'at the suitable time and place.' Fadavi also warned that Israel 'will be punished more severely than before[.]'" Will any proxy take a spear for the Iran Team?

Iran intends to fight for Iraq: "Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to resume attacks targeting US forces in order to expel the United States from the Middle East." Will America wage Phase IX of the Iraq War?

Are enemy military's worse than they appear. I hope so: "Arizona State University’s Center for American Institutions (CAI) recently released a report called 'Civic Education in the Military.' This document questions the value of DEI in military education and training ... The overall assessment is bleak."

Reports of Ukrainian FPV drones causing most casualties likely is not from drone superiority but from ongoing artillery ammunition shortages: "The most recent allotment of US aid to Ukraine is undoubtably insufficient to address the ongoing artillery disparity between Russian and Ukrainian forces[.]"

Sadly for the Sudanese, they aren't the Queen of the Victim Prom: "Because of more than a year of violence, about 11 million Sudanese have been driven from their homes. Combat is currently occurring in at least 80 percent of Sudan." Why is so much attention focused on the self-destructive Palestinians?

Still, the Russians aren't moping about pining for an "exit strategy": "Russian officials are planning on military reforms after the war in Ukraine is over. The major problem is none of the Russian planners can agree on when the war will end. The Russians are unsure how to end the war."

I wasn't happy with Trump's plan, but it was superior to what we did: "The Trump administration planned to withdraw, but in order to support the pro-U.S. Afghan government, the U.S. would keep the huge Bagram airbase as a logistical hub and intelligence post." 

Maduro will always gain western supporters by promising "true socialism": "Venezuela is at a crossroads, with the government of strongman Nicolas Maduro doubling down on his disputed reelection victory and the opposition vowing to resist 'to the end.'"

China appears to have a new conventionally powered submarine. Subs have long been a major advantage for America. Is China closing the gap? 

Meanwhile in the Red Sea: "The latest strikes across the Israel-Lebanese border came as a Greek-flagged oil tanker was set ablaze in the Red Sea as a result of suspected rocket fire by Yemen’s Houthis." If only there was one problem whose solving could alleviate many regional problems.

News from 1913: "the Balkans — the powder keg of Europe — is now in meltdown." With a 2024 twist: "And the Russia- China-Iran troika is behind it."

Fear: "Taiwan’s Cabinet, the Executive Yuan, this week ratified a record defense budget of NT$647 billion, or US$20.2 billion, meant to help defend Taiwan against the prospect of a Chinese invasion." Wisdom still requires much more.

A line in the sea: "A U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer steamed through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, the Navy’s first transit of the waterway in months and the fourth this year."

NATO believes Russia will lose because: "the NATO alliance provides Ukraine with far more military resources than Russia produces and can do it for a longer time than Russia can handle. The NATO coalition represents a huge economic capacity equal to nearly half the global GDP." I mentioned that.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "“I would feel more confident if we had a more robust active base defense” to safeguard those smaller operating locations that would be used under a concept called Agile Combat Employment[.]" 

Oh, boo hoo: "With few exceptions, newspapers’ front pages no longer contain headlines on Sudan. The genocide and famine — which we knew was coming at least since February — have not mobilized celebrities and political leaders." No matter how many chances Palestinians blow, they demand attention. 

Russia isn't using its huge glide bombs inside Russia because it is afraid of hitting friendly targets. This highlights that Russia is bombarding Ukrainians from the air rather than providing close air support to its troops in contact with Ukrainian forces. 

More American aid to Ukraine. Still no new armored fighting vehicles.

Russia is having problems finding warm bodies: "This led to the recent practice of army recruiting officials raiding businesses looking for Russian men or foreign workers who have avoided registering their status with the government." How long can the facade of a growing horde be maintained?

This author denies carriers are obsolete. He says sure, we could lose one. But the Navy is prepared. And they boost allied morale. I say prepared for what? They don't have to sink to be lost. Morale would suffer if we lose just one. I also say they aren't obsolete--as long as you aren't arguing apples and oranges.

All not for one: "Russia’s closest allies within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)–Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan–have provided neither military nor political backing, leaving Moscow isolated in [the Winter War of 2022]." They can look elsewhere. Strategersky.

Israel's small, reusable, Firefly helicopter drone for their infantry. One battery can be removed to add a warhead. Which is its last use, obviously.

Hadn't heard this: "[Ukraine joining NATO] would be a nightmare for Russia and leader Vladimir Putin has promised peace with Ukraine and implied possibly even return of the 25 percent of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia, if Ukraine does not join NATO." If that land return includes Crimea, that might work.

That ISIL-linked migrant sure disproved the mean stereotype of rage, religion, and violence: "The Syrian man suspected of carrying out a knife attack in Solingen should have been deported to Bulgaria last year[.]"

 

ISW urges the U.S. government to allow Ukraine to use America-supplied weapons to strike deeper into Russia against a wider range of targets. I at least hope we are helping Ukraine develop its own weapons to strike deep to make our refusal moot.

Letting the Wookie Win Creates More Wookies

Let's examine another entry in the "Let the Wookie win" genre.

Ukraine is playing with fire by succeeding?

Only if Ukraine is serious about quickly ending the war and negotiating peace with Russia might this invasion be a good idea. Otherwise, it is a risky offensive undertaken merely for psychological effects. Offensive warfare usually incurs more casualties and burns more weapons and equipment than being on the defense, especially if the defensive side is entrenched, has other battlefield fortifications, or can make the most of rivers, high ground, forests, or other terrain advantages.

Russia's military has lost much more in Ukraine's incursion thus far. His point would make more sense if he said Russia has to be careful counter-attacking dug-in Ukrainian troops holding Russian territory captured quickly at relatively low cost. 

And I agree that Ukraine could lose more than it has gained with this incursion. But that is a simple acceptance of the unknowns of how this will unfold in Kursk and the rest of the front.

But the call to end the war and negotiate peace before anything else happens is a call for Ukraine to lose the territory Russia has kept since it invaded Ukraine in 2022--let alone talk about what Russia took in 2014-2015.

In the end, this is another entry in the "let the Wookie win" school of foreign policy:

America is amazingly resistant to winning and amazingly tolerant of enemies doing what it takes to win.

It assumes the Wookie cannot be beaten. Only made angrier and more dangerous by resisting it. Let's focus on beating the Wookie. Maybe if it loses an arm in this fight it will actually be less likely to rip other people's arms off in the future.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

IPAC is the League of Democracies in Action

Democracies need to push back against the China model of autocracy-led economic growth. One day the Chinese people might think trading freedom for GDP growth isn't the good deal it once seemed to be. Especially if the Chinese Communist Party breaks the implicit deal because it is not providing economic growth even as it crushes freedom.

 

Well what do you know?

The PRC attempted to prevent legislators from at least six countries from attending an international parliamentary forum that works to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) actions to subvert the international order and democratic principles. The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) was established in 2020 by a group of legislators from the Five Eyes, Germany, Japan, Norway, and Sweden to form a coordinated response between democracies to challenges that the PRC’s expanding global influence poses to the free, open, and rules-based international order. IPAC holds an annual summit, which Taiwan hosted this year. IPAC members at this year’s summit in Taiwan launched the 2758 Initiative, which pledges to advocate for resolutions in members’ home parliaments that counter the PRC’s efforts to suppress Taiwan’s status and representation in the international community.

This sure sounds like the League of Democracies that I proposed in 2019. Although I conceived of it as a broader body and not just the national parliamentary body level.

The IPAC isn't based on Taiwan. But this year Taiwan hosted the annual summit.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Socotra Solution?

The United Arab Emirates is leading an effort to de facto take over Yemen's Socotra Island territory in order to watch over the narrow southern strait to the Red Sea. Is this for fighting or watching?

Huh:

According to a report published by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies in November 2023, Socotra Island includes an Emirati intelligence base where Israeli-made sensors can be deployed to locate Iranian missiles and drones.

The military base project on Abd al Kuri Island may be part of a military intelligence integration that includes Emirati and Western bases overlooking the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Technically, this isn't a land grab:

In 2018, as part of the Yemeni civil war, UAE military forces landed on the island and took control of key points. Today, the island is de facto controlled by the Southern Transitional Council, supported by the UAE.

I imagine it was an offer the STC couldn't refuse. Such is life in a dangerous world.

This is a natural response to Iran's effort to extend its interdiction capabilities against Gulf Arab state oil exports to the Red Sea from land bases in surrounding land in Africa or Yemen. 

Of course, for this intelligence to be effective America needs to try to fight the war rather than observe it and conduct a Red Sea production of Resolve Theater.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Iran's Path to Nukes Still Open

The Iran deal was a shield to protect Iran's mullah regime and its nuclear weapons ambitions.

The awful Iran nuclear deal rammed through Congress in an inverted approval process--and Lord knows what it is if it isn't a treaty--bolstered by a dishonest propaganda campaign was a massive mistake with a potentially massive price tag if nuts get nukes.

Amazingly enough, this was the plan for the Iran nuclear deal: 

The media did yeoman’s work obscuring the details and purpose of the agreement, but the fact is, by putting Iran’s bomb under a protective American umbrella, Obama was arming an American adversary to make it his own ally.

Inspections under the deal to block Iran's nuclear weapon path are a sick joke. By design. The deal was a  nuclear shield to ... somehow ... pretend the mullahs are America's friend. 

And God help us, but the mullah calls are coming from inside the house. With (tip to Instapundit) no end in sight.

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

God Save Us from the Futurists

I don't mind preparing for future wars. But advocates seem to forget that you fight the war you have and not the war you wish you had. I fear the siren song of a glorious filtered image of future war distracts from preparing for the ugly war of the near future.

Is this really what we should be focused on?

On the battlefields of Ukraine, the future of war is quickly becoming its present. Thousands of drones fill the skies. These drones and their operators are using artificial intelligence systems to avoid obstacles and identify potential targets. AI models are also helping Ukraine predict where to strike. Thanks to these systems, Ukrainian soldiers are taking out tanks and downing planes with devastating effectiveness. Russian units find themselves under constant observation, and their communications lines are prone to enemy disruption—as are Ukraine’s. Both states are racing to develop even more advanced technologies that can counter relentless attacks and overcome their adversary’s defenses. ...

Future wars will no longer be about who can mass the most people or field the best jets, ships, and tanks. Instead, they will be dominated by increasingly autonomous weapons systems and powerful algorithms.

You know, I recently ran across an artist's imagination of future warfare drawn in 2000 in a defense publication. Hell, you could almost look forward to that artistry of warfare!

Despite drones and AI, soldiers in the mud are still gripping their Cold War-era rifles in shattered buildings and trenches, praying for help from armored vehicles and artillery that still look like Cold War weapons.

And pray tell, if that glorious future is achieved, what happens when you can't keep pace with the destruction of your autonomous weapons systems wielded by powerful algorithms, but your enemy can? Because if you run out of the Buck Rogers stuff, you're back to using any jets, ships, and tanks you can get your hands on. Both sides in the Winter War of 2022 may want to develop more advanced technologies. But they must settle for for mid- to late-20th century gear to keep fighting.

That's definitely a lesson of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The future of war is easy to imagine. But I'm not seeing the future arriving in Ukraine any time soon. The reality of what we face next week or next year is a lot less shiny and gee whizzy. 

UPDATE: Fewer babies is the mother of invention:

This means industrialized nations will not be able to recruit as many soldiers in an emergency as they were earlier. Noting how combat developed in Ukraine, it was obvious that heavier use of drones would reduce the need for troops in combat. Drones not only find and kill soldiers, but they also seek out and destroy enemy drones. Western nations see future wars requiring fewer troops to fight each other and the heavier use of drones to do the fighting. The side that can produce more drones and has a larger stockpile of them at the start of a war has an advantage.

Mass still matters. Whether human or autonomous. Technically, that initial article doesn't reject autonomous mass. But the high-tech focus always seems to develop that way.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Aims High

Ukraine is finally getting F-16s from Western countries. They aren't enough to be decisive across Ukraine. But they could be decisive even in relatively small numbers on the Kherson front.

Ukraine has received F-16s in a process that was agonizingly slow:

Ukrainian officials have previously discussed their intention to use F-16 and other fixed-wing aircraft as part of Ukraine's broader air defense umbrella in coordination with Ukraine's existing air defense systems but have repeatedly stressed that Ukraine will need to receive a substantial number of jets in order to implement this vision.

Is this true?

As of late July, Ukraine has received 85 F-16s contributed by the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark. France has sent over a dozen Mirage 2000 fighters. Most of the required Ukrainian F-16 pilots have completed their training and most of these F-16s will be operational before the end of the year. Ukraine will use these fighters to seize control of the air near the Russian border.

Does Ukraine have those planes in Ukraine? Or are those planes merely committed?

Nearly two years ago I thought there was a way to jump start that process. But we didn't go that way. So here we are. Although perhaps that path isn't too late for expanding what Ukraine is fielding.

After undeserved hype about the plane's impact we hear more voices urging people not to get too worked up over the small number of 4th generation fighters that Ukraine is getting. They're nice planes. They aren't silver bullets.

But they could have a disproportionate impact on the long-quiet Kherson front. I've kept my eye on this front since the beginning of the war as a potential site of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

First, I hoped Ukraine could pull a Remagen Bridge operation to bounce Russian-held bridges across the wide Dnipro River:

I expressed my surprise that Ukrainian counter-attacks around Kharkiv have expanded to the breadth of a counter-offensive. I've expected a counter-offensive on the western edge of the Kherson front to aim for the destruction of Russian army units and subsequent recapture of territory to the Crimea isthmus and then northeast. 

 

Is my map-based analysis ignoring internal Ukrainian politics? Must the Ukrainians demonstrate a roll-back of Russian forces in the east before going on offense elsewhere?

Or is my map analysis wrong? I think securing Odessa from a land threat, threatening Sevastopol, and exploiting Russia's longer lines of supply to the Kherson front (with a shorter Ukrainian line of supply to Western sources) argue for the Kherson front. Am I missing something or just wrong on timing?

Russia's well-conducted withdrawal in 2022--despite Ukraine's counteroffensive that did finally take place there--and subsequent destruction of the river crossings ended that hope.

I worried about giving Russia time in September 2022 after Ukraine's Kharkiv front success:

Does Ukraine have more reserves to commit? And if so, are they earmarked for the Kherson front or the Kharkov front?

Planning for the long run is prudent for Russia, under the circumstances. As long as Russia doesn't lose in the short run. What can Ukraine do before winter arrives to win and what more can the Russian army endure in that time? ISW doesn't think Ukraine can win before 2023 arrives. At this rate, no. But present trends continue--until they don't. 

If Ukraine can't score another big win soon, could the West equip Ukraine for a winter offensive in the south that denies Putin the time to rebuild his army for a spring campaign?

I raised the issue again late in 2022:

In the short run, Ukraine has the edge--if it can carry out a major offensive. In the long run, Russia may regain the edge if its ground forces don't crack under the pressure of casualties, poor morale, and battlefield defeats. I don't know how long the short run lasts.

I had hoped for a winter offensive despite the difficulties in the belief that Russia was getting stronger.

I then put my hopes on a southern offensive in Zaporozhye province against greatly weakened Russian forces. But my fears of giving Russia time to prepare were realized as the belated counteroffensive ground to a halt after making meager tactical gains in the summer of 2023. There are surely many reasons put forward for the failure. And this RUSI report is a good stab at it. But I think the fundamental reason was granting Russia time--the most precious commodity in war.

After the 2023 counteroffensive failed, I hoped that Ukraine's small bridgeheads across the river and a campaign against Russian air defenses in western Crimea could create a protected bubble to prepare for a river crossing campaign:

Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian forces in the Crimean Peninsula feel like shaping operations designed to push Russian naval and air defenses east. Could Ukraine be preparing a Kherson front offensive? 

That would exploit Russia's thinning of troops, fewer fortifications, and longer Russian lines of supply. This offensive would require underwater bridges in place supplemented by pontoon bridges built after the attack begins. The river crossing would be supplemented by airmobile and amphibious forces. And we'd see a surge of special forces, partisan, and air attacks. 

That's what I'd want to do. Does Ukraine have the capabilities?

Russia has been exploiting its air power this year to strike Ukraine's ground units, but it still has a theory of warfighting that doesn't rely on air power the way Western countries do. I imagine Ukraine still has the old Soviet philosophy--from habit and lack of alternatives, eh?

Mind you, I'm not saying air power isn't valuable. Our system of warfare puts more emphasis on air attack at the expense of artillery so it is very important. I'm just saying it isn't the only solution to providing ground forces with timely fire support or for striking targets behind the lines.

The Kherson front would also exploit Russian troops holding at the end of Russian supply lines that won't be better until a railroad along the Sea of Azov through Russian-occupied Ukraine territory bolsters them.

Dropping the Kerch Strait bridge would really strain Russian supply lines that far west.

Indeed, unless Russia's ground forces simply collapse from battering against Ukrainian defenders, this front seems like the only axis of advance with the potential to generate decisive movement. 

Yes, Ukraine got the Russians running on the Kursk front. But it still seems like a raid. A well-executed raid that achieved surprise. But still a raid. Even if multiple brigades are committed to roll north or south along the border to tear up Russian border forces and infrastructure, I don't see opportunities for holding more than tactically significant or symbolic ground along the border inside Russia that would benefit Ukraine.

But maybe the effect sought for the Kursk incursion is a distraction. The odds may be low, but my eyes keep getting dragged back to the Kherson front.

And perhaps the inability of Russia to deal with the incursion demonstrates that Russia lacks reserves to cope with unexpected battlefield problems. Before the Ukrainian incursion, I did write that Russia seems to have erected a facade of growing military strength to convince Ukraine and the West that resistance is futile.

Russia seems slow to react with sufficient force to the Ukrainian attack.Whether the Kursk assault is a raid or intended to capture and hold at least some ground, it appears that Ukraine doesn't have to make a quick decision to pull back. Does that expose the scale of Russia's facade of strength?

ISW writes that neither side is currently capable of making a big effort:

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives.

ISW notes that Russia's broad offensive in the east will culminate at some point, giving Ukraine the opportunity to seize the initiative somewhere. It seems to me that as hard is it seems to carry out, the Kherson front may be the only place Ukraine can break out of the prospect of a long slog back to its borders.

Ukraine says it needs about 130 F-16s to have a broad impact across the front--if reports I've heard are accurate. But how many F-16s would be needed to be able to gain air superiority over the Kherson River? That number might be enough to be decisive.

Perhaps Zelensky will say of his outnumbered pilots, "Never have so many owed so much to so few."

UPDATE (Tuesday): Just going to say my advice of July 2014 holds up pretty well:

If Putin does escalate to openly waged warfare against Ukraine to take eastern Ukraine, Ukraine needs to do three things: preserve the Ukrainian army; wage irregular warfare in eastern Ukraine to stress Russia's still-inadequate ground forces; and strike Sevastopol.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine is seemingly attempting to get Russian forces west of their salient to withdraw, potentially leaving Ukraine with a chunk of Russian territory behind a river:

Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.

It is interesting that Russia hasn't seriously reacted to the incursion. Is this from lack of troops or lack of concern that Ukraine's advance could capture any significant geographic objective? 

Russia certainly has enough troops to advance in the Donbas:

Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ask and I shall receive:

Russian government sources told Meduza that that the Kremlin was initially shocked and worried about Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast but calmed down with a week because Ukrainian forces’ advances were far from more densely populated regional centers such as Kursk City.

The Russians don't see a Ukrainian threat to anything of particular importance. So intend to continue offensive operations inside Ukraine.

UPDATE (Thursday): This is why Ukraine needs to establish control of the air over the Dnipro River to make the Kherson front viable:

Ukraine says it is destroying Russian pontoon bridges in Kursk before they can even be constructed.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian special forces released a video compilation that appeared to show attacks on several Russian efforts to build pontoons, or temporary floating bridges.

Ukraine would be on the receiving end of such strikes if it doesn't put up air defenses to cover its own bridge building. And it needs to push a lot of Russian artillery back out of range of the river, too. 

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia continues to grind forward in the Donbas. Has Ukraine diverted too much to the Kursk front? Or is Russia gambling too much in Kursk?

UPDATE (Thursday): In the short run I hope that Ukraine plans a counter-attack against a Russian salient in the Donbas that exploits Russian reactions to coping with the Kursk incursion to inflict a serious if localized defeat of the Russian ground forces. We'll see.

UPDATE (Thursday): Ukraine's strategic warfare against Russia's rear continues.

UPDATE (Saturday): Ukraine's Kursk incursion has always seemed like a raid to me. But our government says Ukraine wants a buffer zone. 

Maybe. But plenty of Ukrainians inside Ukraine could use buffer zones as Russia grinds forward in the Donbas. I can see wanting better defensive positions that may exist on the Russian side of the border. I can see wanting Russian territory to trade. I'm not sure I buy the buffer explanation. 

I certainly expect Ukraine to pull back from forward positions when Russia finally reacts. So maybe just a partial raid. And I'd like to know how Russia's lack of reaction has changed Ukraine's objective since Ukraine crossed the border.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I started regular The Dignified Rant: Evolved posting on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. I will continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022.

Sh*t got real: "[Secretary Austin] has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region."

The enemy of my enemy is no longer a pariah, eh? "The Biden administration is lifting its years-long suspension of offensive arms shipments to Saudi Arabia, authorizing an initial shipment of air-to-ground munitions and saying it would consider additional new transfers 'on a typical case-by-case basis[.]'"

Is the debris a bug or a feature: "A Chinese rocket carrying the first satellites in a planned communications constellation intended to rival Starlink broke up in low-Earth orbit this week, spreading debris across the orbital regime and worrying experts."

The Russians/Soviets have been oddly good at EW, so good: "In the desert outside of Agadir, American and Moroccan troops are putting new electronic warfare technology and tactics to the test. It’s a small but vital piece of a long-overdue effort to restore and update capabilities disbanded after the Cold War."

Ukraine's Sky Fortress: "consists of nearly 10,000 cell phones mounted on two-meter poles with their microphones activated to detect the unique sounds of [UAVs] flying nearby." Some of the hundreds of gun trucks are sent to the flight path and "destroy most of the drones they encounter." 

Despite my wild speculation, Russia didn't try to frame China: "Beijing has admitted that a Chinese-owned ship damaged a critical Baltic Sea gas pipeline running between Estonia and Finland last October, but says it was an accident." Still, "an accident?" Maybe China chose to help Russia this way.

The ripples of losing a war long ago means Finland has problems now keeping the Russians out of Finland's Aland Islands: "Under a Soviet-era security pact, the islands are completely demilitarised, with no fortifications or military forces allowed in the area."

An update on the Religion of P--oh, why bother: "With hundreds of Hindus and Christians killed and thousands more attacked and wounded, violence on minorities in Bangladesh finally calls western attention to what happens when an Islamist majority is left unchecked to terrorise non-Muslims."

Hitler's solution to the "Jewish problem" wasn't completely final. But modern Europeans are shamefully picking up the ball and running with it. The Belgian cop shrugged with a "it's not my war" excuse for banning Jews to prevent anti-Jewish violence. Oh, it's his war. He chose the other side. Via Instapundit.

Sh*t got real: "Manila announced it will intensify monitoring its air space following an incident last week that saw Chinese fighter jets harass a Philippine aircraft over Scarborough Shoal."

Iran continues to inflict casualties that our government finds acceptable: "A number of U.S. service members suffered minor injuries from a one-way drone attack in Syria Friday, and a few have been transported for further evaluation, the Pentagon said Monday."

Arming up: "Norway has requested to buy 16 of Lockheed Martin’s M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS[.]" A South Korean firm lost the competition. To be fair, South Korea isn't as likely to resupply Norway in a war as America is.

Space Force: "Currently Space Force operates 77 space satellites, including the U.S. GPS, Space Fence [to detect and track active or defunct space satellites and debris, and the], missile warning system[; plus the] NMD (National Missile Defense) system[.]"

Body bags going back to Russia: "Russian military forces in Ukraine have suffered heavy losses since they invaded in early 2022. Recently those set a record for the highest percentage of troops in a unit killed or wounded in a single attack, against Kharkiv[.]" I don't believe Russia can endure that indefinitely.

The idea that attackers suffer three times the loss of defenders is nonsense. I hear analysts say that. But loss ratios vary. Russian defender losses appear to be much higher than attacking Ukrainian losses at the Kursk front, for example.

Oh? "UN chief António Guterres has called for Africa to be given a permanent seat at the UN Security Council as part of reforms to correct historical injustices." With a veto? When they are consumers of UN security and financial programs and not producers? When Japan and India have better cases for status?

Ukraine is setting the stage for nuance in a future American policy that may seek to quickly end the war: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Russia had to be forced to make peace[.]" I've assumed Trump's position would evolve to that reality rather than accept defeat and be labeled a loser.

As people get worked up about Russia using nukes because Ukraine entered its territory at Kursk, such a threat isn't credible. Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine has a higher bar: "aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy[.]"

Big bucks: "Poland on Tuesday signed a $10 billion deal to buy 96 Apache attack helicopters from US manufacturer Boeing in a new upgrade to the country's military capabilities." I hope it isn't a waste of money.

The European Union can ef itself. 

Good: "The State Department today formally approved a series of weapon purchases by Israel, clearing the way for Jerusalem to receive F-15 fighter jets, munitions and vehicles that have a collective estimated price tag of over $20 billion."

Huh: "In a move meant to boost fighting spirit in new Air Force and Space Force recruits, basic trainees are now issued [inert] M-4 rifles early in boot camp which they carry and maintain throughout the course[.]" Not to laugh--I was a REMF--but shouldn't they carry inert bombs? A more useful skill.

The stupid! It burns! Possibly more stupid than this old proposal. So many substitutes for victory.

I suppose this means their victory didn't count? "The Taliban celebrated the third anniversary of its return to power at a former U.S. air base in Afghanistan on Wednesday, but there was no mention of the country’s hardships or promises of hope for the struggling population." "Hope" isn't a jihadi objective.

Hush, hush. Keep it down now. Voices carry: "F-22 Raptors from Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., landed in Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines last week, in a widespread display of fifth-generation airpower across crucial regions in the Indo-Pacific. "

Russia has turned to AI: "In this case Russian propaganda specialists are seeking information that would be useful for a disinformation campaign in NATO countries that would generate popular opposition to NATO efforts to support Ukraine." So far that is failing. Russia is evil and expansionist. Stop them now.

Yes: "Russia believes that Ukrainian efforts to join NATO are part of a NATO plot to surround and weaken Russia. This is not the case because Russia is doing that to itself with corruption, poor leadership and a declining population due to a low birth rate and [emigrating young Russians]." Will Russians notice? 

Why can't we all just hate communists? Their shrieking fanboys (and fangirls) here are morons. 'Murica! Tip to Instapundit.

Notwithstanding a jihadi problem, I keep hearing America shouldn't over-militarize its Africa policy. As if. But: "The U.S. State Department Fumbles Africa Again[.]" Isn't that its mission statement?

Huh: "Germany on Wednesday said its support for Ukraine would remain steadfast, whatever the results of investigations into the sabotage attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022." Germany issued an arrest warrant. I would have bet good money it was an accident.

Oh? "'Jordan is the last holdout,' Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) told Fox News Digital. 'It's the last bastion of the pro-Western or status quo order in the heartland of the northern part of the Middle East.'" Fight for Iraq!

We screwed the pooch in Afghanistan. But except for isolated terrorism options with the aircraft if the Taliban can get any to fly, I'm not worried the light infantry arsenal we left behind. I'm worried about what enemies learned. And what allies learned. I'm worried about losing much more.

Iraq wants more helicopters for when American troops leave. Just don't leave prematurely as we did in 2011, which led to Iraq War 2.0 against ISIL. I mean, we're still fighting for Iraq against Iran's influence. Don't give Iraq to Iran!

Many Germans oppose allowing America to station nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in their country: "In the months leading up to the deployment of American Pershing II and cruise missiles in West Germany in the early 1980s, the country erupted in mass protest." Those missiles unified Germany. You're welcome.

I did not know that. I should have known:

To be fair, they're bastards: "The US expressed frustration Wednesday that North Korea is continuing to refuse to allow teams into the reclusive country to recover the remains of American casualties from the Korean War."

The recruiting slump is over? "The Army is set to expand how many new recruits it can send to basic training starting in October, as officials are confident the service is digging out of a recruiting slump it has struggled with for nearly a decade." What changed? Other than lowering its goal to what it got last year.

Russia is re-stocking their hostage supply: "A Russian court has sentenced a Russian-American woman to 12 years in prison for treason after she made a donation of just over $50 to a US-based charity supporting Ukraine."

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Western sources have reportedly leaked Russian plans drawn up between 2008 and 2014 for 'a series of overwhelming strikes across Western Europe,' the Financial Times reported." It's not like they never mention their nukes. But how many of their 5,500 nukes work?

To be fair, they're bastards: "In early July 2024, a Russian missile struck a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Russia has been attacking Ukrainian hospitals since the start of the war but is now concentrating on medical facilities that specialize in treating children."

Putin created the threat he has whined about for decades: "Without the Ukraine War, European voters would not have approved the return of conscription as a necessary step to increase the size of their armed forces." Pretending a weak NATO was a threat to Russia was deliberate. Stupid. But deliberate.

I randomly ran across an old "helping a friend resist our enemy just plays into the enemy's deep plan" genre post.

Pining for a fully capable Marine Corps ground combat capability. Defenders of the radical Force Design changes like to accuse opponents of the changes as "zombies." But the Force Design proponents seem like the undead lurching forward without thought. The intent of change is fine--if done right and not universal.

Oh: "The U.S. government needs to be quicker about rolling out new integrated deterrence efforts, the Pentagon’s top military officer says, as global tensions have risen since the Biden administration made the concept a key part of its national-security strategy." Integrated deterrence? God help us.

Sh*t got real: "The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of the latest variant of Patriot missiles to Germany in a deal that could be worth an estimated $5 billion[.]" Germany arming up is significant.

Shot across the bow? "China’s Commerce Ministry announced Thursday that it will restrict exports of a mineral used in a wide range of products from batteries to weapons." Or boil the frog slowly?

The battle that saved Poland: "NATO member Poland paid tribute Thursday to its historic 1920 victory over the Red Army by honoring fallen Poles and showing off modern tanks and other equipment that it hopes will deter the threat it sees in modern-day Russia." For a while. Vigilance is necessary.

News to me: "From late April through June this year, a unit of Ukrainian troops surrounded by Russian forces was supplied solely by drones. Food and ammunition were regularly dropped to the Ukrainian soldiers during the 70 day-long battle. Eventually a relief force of Ukrainian troops broke through[.]"

As much as this development is bad for the global economy, I'd rather face that than a stronger China: "Unless the Chinese government introduces major structural economic reforms that encourage domestic consumer spending, China could experience a Japanese-style lost economic decade." Tip to PJ Media.

Not to be political, but FFS: "Vice President Kamala Harris is stonewalling a congressional inquiry into her national security adviser's ties to an Iranian government influence network, the Washington Free Beacon has learned." You may recall that "dial turned to 11" foreign policy insanity. Via Instapundit. 

Good luck: "Venezuela’s main opposition leaders are rejecting calls by two Latin American presidents that it hold new elections — this time with more democratic safeguards — and are insisting that their candidate, Edmundo González, be endorsed as the winner of the presidential vote last month."

Sure, via Instapundit, a Kaliningrad, Russia, independence movement is tiny and going nowhere. But maybe Putin will fear it because if three people rallied under the Soviet flag in Riga, Putin would claim he had to rescue his "compatriots abroad" by invading Latvia. 

Cheese-regulating surrender monkeys: "[European Union] appeasers are turning cartwheels in their attempts to woo Masoud Pezeshkian, the new president of Iran." Via Instapundit.

Attrition: "Over two years of fighting in Ukraine have left Russia with few combat capable troops. Russian losses are nearly twice those of Ukraine’s[.]" Russia is open to a ceasefire now. Fear is appearing.  Ukraine will need continued Western supplies to get Russia willing to surrender conquered territory.

NATO: "NATO has established a separate support command in Germany to coordinate training of Ukrainian forces as well as receipt, storage and distribution of weapons and equipment donated by NATO nations for use in Ukraine." NATO's first war? NATO did send troops to Afghanistan. That doesn't count?

This is plausible: "The Era of Large U.S. Navy Surface Warships Is Over[.]" Unless networked defenses can cope; and unless enemy launchers can be destroyed before they fire. But if not, preaching to the TDR choir in regard to sea control--as opposed to power projection.

China isn't interested in getting stuck in a Russia-China-North Korea alliance: "For Beijing, propping up Pyongyang is less important than mending ties with the United States, maintaining Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific and containing the confrontation on the Korean Peninsula."

One thing that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk province is doing is exposing Russian troop weaknesses. As I've said, that's an advantage of having the initiative. I resist getting my hopes up like some seemingly reasonable analysts are about what effects this small operation can generate. Ukraine needs to do more.

Meanwhile in Syria, battling ISIL: "On August 10th eight American soldiers were injured when an explosive laden drone hit their base. ... Thirteen years of civil war in Syria has created chaos in eastern Syria where Russian, Iranian and American forces have established separate zones they control.

Recall I said I didn't assume Haniyeh was killed with a planted bomb: "It was unclear if the seven kilogram warhead was fired from an Israeli aircraft or launched by Israeli operatives in Tehran."

China stops selling liquid natural gas extraction equipment to Russia: "Most of China’s foreign trade is with the United States and Europe. The western sanctions threat was potentially devastating for China while the loss of its much smaller trade activity with Russia is something China can survive." 

Given that Musk's Starlink provides Ukraine with superior battlefield communications, I assume this is an effort to drive a needless wedge between Musk and Ukraine: "Chechnya President Ramzan Kadyrov invited Tesla CEO Elon Musk to Russia [after his video driving a Cybertruck with a machine gun.]"