I don't mind preparing for future wars. But advocates seem to forget that you fight the war you have and not the war you wish you had. I fear the siren song of a glorious filtered image of future war distracts from preparing for the ugly war of the near future.
Is this really what we should be focused on?
On the battlefields of Ukraine, the future of war is quickly becoming its present. Thousands of drones fill the skies. These drones and their operators are using artificial intelligence systems to avoid obstacles and identify potential targets. AI models are also helping Ukraine predict where to strike. Thanks to these systems, Ukrainian soldiers are taking out tanks and downing planes with devastating effectiveness. Russian units find themselves under constant observation, and their communications lines are prone to enemy disruption—as are Ukraine’s. Both states are racing to develop even more advanced technologies that can counter relentless attacks and overcome their adversary’s defenses. ...
Future wars will no longer be about who can mass the most people or field the best jets, ships, and tanks. Instead, they will be dominated by increasingly autonomous weapons systems and powerful algorithms.
You know, I recently ran across an artist's imagination of future warfare drawn in 2000 in a defense publication. Hell, you could almost look forward to that artistry of warfare!
Despite drones and AI, soldiers in the mud are still gripping their Cold War-era rifles in shattered buildings and trenches, praying for help from armored vehicles and artillery that still look like Cold War weapons.
And pray tell, if that glorious future is achieved, what happens when you can't keep pace with the destruction of your autonomous weapons systems wielded by powerful algorithms, but your enemy can? Because if you run out of the Buck Rogers stuff, you're back to using any jets, ships, and tanks you can get your hands on. Both sides in the Winter War of 2022 may want to develop more advanced technologies. But they must settle for for mid- to late-20th century gear to keep fighting.
That's definitely a lesson of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The future of war is easy to imagine. But I'm not seeing the future arriving in Ukraine any time soon. The reality of what we face next week or next year is a lot less shiny and gee whizzy.
UPDATE: Fewer babies is the mother of invention:
This means industrialized nations will not be able to recruit as many soldiers in an emergency as they were earlier. Noting how combat developed in Ukraine, it was obvious that heavier use of drones would reduce the need for troops in combat. Drones not only find and kill soldiers, but they also seek out and destroy enemy drones. Western nations see future wars requiring fewer troops to fight each other and the heavier use of drones to do the fighting. The side that can produce more drones and has a larger stockpile of them at the start of a war has an advantage.
Mass still matters. Whether human or autonomous. Technically, that initial article doesn't reject autonomous mass. But the high-tech focus always seems to develop that way.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.