Is Erdogan angling for a Turkish-Iranian confrontation? That would be an indirect way of repairing ties to Israel and Arabs that he has damaged. If it is too hard to become their friend, becoming (again) the enemy of their enemy might be good enough. How and where would the confrontation play out?
Excuse me, but who is waging war against Asian Americans?
China learns to deal with stressed sailors. The path is toward what American (and I assume other Western) navies have long coped with sailor morale.
China: all your student are belong to us! Tip to Instapundit.
The Army really wants new light armor and armed robots. But you already know my view on the Future Burned-Out Hulk light tank. Sure, the Army says the MPF light tank is only intended to fight enemies without anti-tank capabilities. But I wonder why our enemies would be that cooperative? And the armed robots are for now "teleoperated" by remote crews. I explored a version of that concept in this Infantry article.
Hypersonic missile modules for Zumwalt. That would work on modularized auxiliary cruisers, no? And I mentioned an option for a Kiev-like aviation cruiser vessel with air surveillance that can target for the ship's missiles. Zumwalt will be able to do that, too, controlling air and surface drones.
Trump supporters don't mistrust highly educated people because Trump supporters are ignorant. Trump supporters mistrust highly educated people because the highly educated experts who are visible are credentialed idiots who can't be trusted. Watch the cause-and-effect direction when you notice the connection.
I agree that small islands are sometimes very important. And yes, the Japanese need to stand on their tiny ground. But just where is that "Biden grand strategy" the article speaks of? To be fair, that was the editor's title which doesn't make it into the article.
I noticed something that Peacock does that is pretty smart. There is a show on broadcast TV I have watched. But I missed an episode a couple weeks ago and then I did it again. The second time was probably influenced by not wanting to keep watching new episodes while having a gap. Peacock has the series, too. But it delays the new episodes. So now I am locked into watching it on Peacock. Being delayed doesn't bother me. This is not a complaint about Peacock, mind you. I like Peacock's free version. I'm old enough to be used to commercial interruptions.
It's a sad and dangerous day when our government puts political officers into our military. Men and women who volunteer to serve in the military accept fewer rights in order to protect the rights and freedoms of other Americans. But this is an outrageous highly selective application of that reality. Or do you really think that anybody within the Department of Defense will be disciplined for BLM, Antifa, or any other Marxist or "Marxist-adjacent" activities?
Look, the Biden administration said there aren't kids in cages, so just shut up about it. And they will not circle back to that issue. Ever. Because they care so, so much, of course. Actually, I suspect the crisis will be used by illegal immigration advocates to end all border controls rather than restore control of the border.
Biden called an early lid for the day at the beginning of the week. How long before one of these "lids" is for the week? The month? Or even the year? Tip to Instapundit.
The Woke Left. Useful idiots? Or just on the other side. If I recall the rules the Left wrote, if a horrible political entity agrees with you, you are no different than the horrible political entity. Tip to Instapundit.
Why are we giving grief to India over buying Russian weapons? "U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday encouraged India to rethink its planned purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system to avoid U.S. sanctions, according to Reuters." India is not a NATO nation like Turkey, whose participation in NATO's integrated air defense system could compromise the system if a Russian weapon is plugged in. India is not any of that. Let India buy new weapons that can cope with China. And as a side benefit keep Russia from being dependent on China. Don't we want a Russia that eventually feels free to break free from appeasing China? Give India and exemption to anti-Russia sanctions and be happy that Russia has an opening to an anti-Chinese power that might drag Russia along one day.
The Saudis offered a ceasefire to the Houthi. America cheered. The Houthi said the Saudis should shove it. Well of course that was the Houthi reaction. The opening position was a ceasefire. The Houthi want victory and so turned down the ceasefire to wait for an offer closer to Houthi victory. Our opening position should have been that we'll kill every Houthi fighter, destroy every structure, and salt the earth to destroy them. Then maybe the Houthi would have accepted a ceasefire to forestall the worst.
Credentialed idiots govern us. Tip to Instapundit.
The Chinese and Russians sure like their bad boy friends.
Lovely little business you have there. It would be a shame if anything bad happened to it. Lose-lose for the for-now successful business people there.
The Critical Drinker. His YouTube entertainment reviews are gems.
Naval power is more than hulls and tonnage. Is China building the less quantifiable enablers of real naval power? And of course, as I've frequently noted, the author points out that America has powerful naval allies while China does not. But those allies are not a given, I've warned. The author notes that, too.
What does China's latest 5-year plan mean for Russia? It means that Russia had best make good use of those five years.
The American military has no business inserting itself in politics. Unlike people who didn't like a drone "kill list" with an American's name on it, I had no problem with that. If the American wanted justice the American could surrender and go to court. But fight with our enemies and you deserve a JDAM with your name on it, I say. If the military wants to lose Congressional support and recruits, it should keep openly siding with the left side of the aisle. Those retired senior officers weighing in against Trump were canaries in the coal mine, I guess. Without conservatives backing it, the military will be defunded and social workers will be sent to deal with jihadi terrorists.
The Bill Clinton strategy is back, baby! Republicans should be taking notes. Governor Blackface (or was he Governor Klan Robe?) and his lieutenant governor set the modern standard for riding out the storm. Cuomo is only following it. Still, you'd think all those needless nursing home deaths would prompt the New York state legislature to act. But for the non-lethal accusations, Mr. Franken is kicking himself for resigning his Senate seat, no doubt. I mean, hey, some "problematic" behavior isn't a bar to the highest office in the land. Cuomo keeps hope alive!
The international community continues to try to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Because reasons, I suppose. I say break it up for parts and start over.
To be clear, I have no problem with women in the military. They are an important part of the force. And there is nothing wrong with aiding pregnant female soldiers. The issue is the high-level emphasis on that aspect of the military when the military needs improvements in capabilities to combat China's rising power in East Asia. That was the point of Tucker Carlton's comments, I think. And do you really believe there is no reason to worry about the capabilities issue? Messaging priorities, people. Have them.
This kind of short-range missile firing shouldn't even make the news. North Korea sure knows how to attract attention. It's like a missile selfie. Who cares?
Interesting times: "The United States said Tuesday it’s backing the Philippines in a new
standoff with Beijing in the disputed South China Sea, where Manila has
asked a Chinese fishing flotilla to leave a reef. China ignored the
call, insisting it owns the offshore territory." About 200 Chinese naval militia vessels are parked at Whitsun Reef to carry out the process of absorbing the territory and the waters around it. More on China's subliminal conquest going on there.
So Russia wants to pretend it is a superpower? That's so cute: "China and Russia on Tuesday lashed out at the 'destructive' behaviour of the United States and called for a UN Security Council summit to establish stability between global superpowers." China is just tolerating and using Russia. For five more years, anyway.
Blue Feudalism. But they care! I've stopped caring that the left decided our cities were acceptable collateral damage to win the federal government. The city voters chose the form of their destruction. We'll see if they choose different people to restore them.
CNN's prime time ratings have plunged 45% in five weeks. Like I said, the parasite can't live without its host. Tip to Instapundit.
Two American warships entered the Black Sea to remind Russia that it isn't actually a Russian lake.
The idea that Taiwan is doomed because China is huge and close is refuted by the fact that many large and powerful countries have small and weak neighbors. Work the problem. And no matter what, don't give up the ship. Fight her till she sinks. Remember, Finland endured a massive assault without a 100-mile anti-tank ditch. Finland survived until the unthinkable happened and the Soviet threat evaporated nearly overnight.
Yes. You may recall that I noted that both Trump's decision to pull troops out of Somalia and Biden's decision to require White House approval strikes there would harm our ability to kill jihadis. If The AFRICOM Queen was sailing off the coast, as I wrote about in Military Review, we'd be in a much stronger position.
Oops: "The Suez Canal in Egypt was blocked on Tuesday after a massive container ship ran aground." In imagining a China invasion of Taiwan a long time ago, I wrote: "The Chinese should arrange an accident in the Panama Canal that blocks
the waterway quite solidly for a good two weeks. Perhaps a volatile
cargo will make it too risky to move fast until all the facts are in
about the cargo and what it will take to secure it before refloating the
ship and getting it out of the locks. Our carriers may not be able to
use the canal but smaller warships and supply vessels use it, not to
mention pure civilian traffic that relies on the canal. The disruption
will hinder our movement and provide a warning jolt to our economy." Just saying. And while the ship blocks the Suez Canal, we're cut off from the short route to CENTCOM. That's not good.
Racial identity rules make my head spin. I can almost understand why the woke simply change their views to match whatever hashtag is trending that day.
I've been fairly agnostic on the origins of the COVID-19 virus. Way outside my lanes. But given China's secrecy on the origins of the Xi Jinping Flu virus and China's propaganda that America is the source of the virus, I'm going to go out on a limb and say escape from a Chinese laboratory is the way to bet on the origin of the virus. And if it is true that the virus was engineered to be especially infectious, what are the Chinese up to? If China's rise falters before 2049, is this a Plan B to pull down the rest of the world to engineer China's position on the top regardless of China's trajectory? It seems far-fetched. It feels almost wrong to suggest. And I won't say I think this pandemic virus was deliberately released by China. But the last year has been so improbably that I'm not sure if normal measures of plausibility apply. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
The White House gender transitioning process begins.
I would pay good money is women show up to the event in blue dresses.
China wants to wage a civilizational war based on race. China has appointed itself the rulers of the Asians. America needs to respond with an asymmetrical civilizational war against the Chinese Communist Party based on freedom. This would be a nice start. A voluntary alliance of the free will have more appeal and staying power than a sham alliance that masks CCP rule over Asian vassal states and harsh rule over the Chinese themselves.
Perhaps Thomas "China for a day" Friedman really is over his China crush and doesn't like them much any more. I guess aggression and genocide can get tough to defend after a while. But his new status as the man who would warn us to get serous about China still seems to be plagued with a crush on the autocrat "solution" in America to China. And his solutions are basically "implementing policies that result in good things while avoiding policies that result in bad things." It's Gold, I tell you! Can't miss! As I've long said of Friedman, I'm not saying you can't drown in a pool of his wisdom. But you would have to be drunk and face down to do so.
Big if true: "The United States and countries around Europe are closing ranks to respond to 'aggressive and coercive' behavior by China, days after the U.S. and its allies launched coordinated sanctions against Chinese officials accused of rights abuses in the far-western Xinjiang region." The article is short on details, mentioning few countries: "On Monday, the U.S., EU, Britain and Canada imposed asset freezes and travel bans on a group of officials in Xinjiang." But European countries seem rather eager to conclude trade deals with China. Do those sanctions on individuals really make up for enriching the Chinese Communist Party with trade deals? For example, from the very same article: "The [EU and China] sealed a major investment agreement in December giving European businesses about the same level of market access in China as those from the United States." Huh. I bet China will trade some minor sanctions on fully replaceable bureaucrats for major trade deals, eh? My, the media is going to be very generous with this president, isn't it?
May Erdogan enjoy his second-rate air defense equipment and third-rate frenemy. Remember, we have an Erdogan crisis and not an S-400 crisis.
Britain: "British foreign minister Dominic Raab will throw his support behind NATO as 'a strong, united, political bulwark against Moscow's de-stabilising activities', rallying allies to thwart what he said was the threat posed by Russia." Brexit had no effect on European defenses given that NATO--which Britain is a member of--and not the European Union is Europe's primary means of defense.
Mass shootings and perpetrator race. Well that's different than what the media says. Tip to Instapundit.
One of the problems with being out of power is that your side has a tendency to go a little bit nuts. The Democrats went a lot of bit nuts under Trump. It was turn the dial to 11, 24/7 Crazyland. But conservatives do it too. Take the VP Harris not-saluting kerfuffle. Harris is not required to salute troops because she is not in the military chain of command. So not an outrage. And honestly, if she had saluted, I can totally see some on the right complaining that she really wants to be commander-in-chief! How dare she! I'm not outraged.
Coalition air power and Iraqi troops continue to fight ISIL. Good. We let them up off the map between the end of 2011 and mid-2014. Don't do that again. I question this, however: "The U.S. estimates that between 8,000 and 16,000 ISIS fighters remain in both Iraq and Syria, according to a February Defense Department Inspector General report." I suspect that this number included family members and part-time supporters. If more than 10% of those "fighters" are full timers I'd be shocked. Because the mayhem in Iraq and Syria isn't enough to represent 8-16K full-time fighters.
China's population is going to implode: "Today, the country has a population more than four times larger than America’s. By 2100, the U.S. will probably have more people than China." I do believe I mentioned that possibility nearly 10 years ago. Has China's total fertility rate dropped so much that it is now likely?
Oh? "Beijing will have the ability to invade Taiwan sooner than current predictions would suggest, US President Joe Biden’s nominee to lead America’s Indo-Pacific Command said on Tuesday." I think China has long had the ability to invade Taiwan if China's leaders are willing to endure the casualties, take the hit in international relations, and risk war with America.
Well of course NATO is important to contain Russia. But only if the members of NATO spend enough on defense and only if the NATO states are willing to confront Russia. I get the strong impression that the Europeans welcome "improved" trans-Atlantic relations that end American pressure to spend more on defense and actually do things to contain Russia. Will America now be cool with that?
If we are going to comfort ourselves that our trained and experienced crews make up for Chinese numbers of shiny new warships, we'd better be damned sure our crews are trained, experienced--and rested while on duty.
The president's first press conference was just sad for Biden and shameful for the media that went along with the charade. It was Weekend at Bernie's Biden's territory. But it is more than "just" that. Biden is not in charge. Somebody is. And by using Biden as the pretend decider, the American people are denied the ability to hold someone accountable for the actions of the federal government. Biden can hardly be held responsible. That is obvious. But who do we hold responsible? Who is making decisions?
China is building large amphibious warfare ships. While these ships would of course be useful in a Taiwan invasion to lift Marines to the island, I think their primary purpose is power projection far beyond Taiwan. If China wants to engage in disaster relief, the ships would also be useful.
The media is handling the transition of fact checking from Trump to Biden in stride: "Biden skews figures on border, taxes, more[.]" Trump "lied" of course. Biden "skews figures."
No! Way! I guess the people aren't supposed to know some things that are inconvenient to know. Tip to Instapundit.
As the Biden administration contents itself with speaking loudly but carrying a small stick in regard to China, the states may have to wield their own sticks. Why we tolerate Confucius Institute propaganda and espionage hubs is beyond me.
Yemen is another state that has fragmented beyond repair. Only the UN state-based system is maintaining the fiction of a single country.
The North Koreans upped their missile test sabre rattling with more substantial weapons.
WTF? Making sure elections are decided by legally cast votes is "Un-American," "sick," and "despicable?" One, this is insane and dangerous. Two, The Democrats' own proposal to federalize election law to undermine voting integrity is the real threat to honest voting. And three, I'm so old that I remember when Democrats expressed outrage at questioning somebody's Patriotism.
Money for nothing, get your nukes for free.
China is building more land on Subi Reef in the South China Sea.
America's special forces are shifting emphasis from counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism to great power competition scenarios. So they want better intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets. I assume their ISR assets to search and call down firepower aren't able to operate in a high-threat environment.
China is doing its underseas homework to operate west of the Malacca and Sunda Straits.
Democracy dies in Speaker Pelosi's office.
I'm honestly not freaked out that Biden had a guide to the reporters with their photographs.
Are depleted uranium salts dangerous? "A German company has found dangerous nuclear material stored in an oil facility in southern Lebanon, officials said Friday." I have to believe that if Hezbollah knew that was around that Hezbollah would have packed it in some of their rockets aimed at Israel. It would cause terror from setting off radiation detectors, if nothing else.
Taiwan says it is "mass producing" long-range missiles. I assume this is in line with past efforts to be able to strike Chinese ports and airfields should China try to invade Taiwan.
Iran is continuing the undeclared naval war with Israel by attacking an Israeli-owned cargo ship with a missile. Iran denies it is involved. This echoes the Iran-Iraq War "tanker war" and related American-led defensive military efforts to counter Iran's attacks on non-combatant shipping.
Did 20 Chinese warplanes really violate Taiwan's air space in one incident? Or was this a Chinese penetration of Taiwan's air defense identification zone?
This seems significant: "A unit of six North Korean border soldiers has defected to China, according to reports, in a sign of the increasingly high level of discontent in the reclusive country." So an entire squad defected? And the secret police sent to the border to watch the border guards let this slide or didn't detect the plot? A whole lot of officials have a whole lot of explaining to do. Also, China accepted their defection? That's a big deal, too. Although I think it is more accurate to say the unit escaped into China rather than defected to China. Good luck to them. They'll need it.
I commend the Biden administration for sticking with a U.S.-Taiwan coast guard agreement despite China's anger.
The Chinese are having problems with building carriers. Technology, aircraft, crews, and support vessels are all speed bumps. I'm not sure if this is reason to celebrate or not.
Saying the filibuster is a tool of racism because racist legislators once used it to stall civil rights is nonsense. It's like saying hammers are racist tools because racists once used them to build slave quarters. Do we ban hammers? For God's sake people, try not to be destructive morons when formulating arguments.
China is getting old before it gets rich. Does this mean that its leaders will invade Taiwan soon? Is this the right response to the demographic problem? Do China's rulers think that owning Taiwan is so important that it is worth the risk of adding new problems to their demographic slide? Will the Chinese with few children think perhaps tens of thousands of dead troops is worth paying for Taiwan?
Iran doesn't seem eager for a reset with America: "Iran and China on Saturday signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement addressing economic issues amid crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran, state TV reported." And so much for Iran wanting to be the leader of the Islamic world in place of Saudi Arabia. I guess as far as the mullahs are concerned the Uighurs can just rot in Hell. Well, to be fair, just for 25 years.
Morons seem to be ascendant in formulating arguments these days. This is going to be a long year.
Only $32K? That seems like a totally inadequate honor for Thunberg. How dare they insult Greta with such a puny statue?! I smell an arms race among universities and foundations as boards of control worry about a Saint Greta statue gap. How soon before Harvard proposes a $100K statue?
I'm a "work the problem" sort of person in the face of setbacks. So my brain tells me that the Democrats can be stopped or diluted by using available levers of power and preparing to make the case for conservative policies in the next election. But emotionally the success of the Democrats in gaining control of the federal government--even if barely--makes me worry that their apparent willingness to destroy norms and institutions--and possibly democracy itself--for the sake of power is a threat the country hasn't seen before. I suspect my brain has the better narrative. But I'm not sure. And this reinforces my belief that trying to control the huge federal state is a mistake. The emphasis should be on shrinking the scope of the federal state so it isn't such a high stakes contest to control it. We'd be far less polarized if that could be achieved.
Trump took the threat of cyber-attacks on our election seriously: "In the run up to the 2020 presidential election, U.S. Cyber Command conducted over two dozen missions to block foreign adversaries’ efforts to undermine voting integrity, the commander told senators Thursday." Contrast this to Obama who in 2016 famously told Putin to "cut it out."
This is sadly humorous: "The United States and other Western countries are waging a psychological war on Russia to try to undermine President Vladimir Putin and state institutions, an adviser to Russia’s defence minister said." As if. Until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, the US and the West barely even thought about Russia let alone plotted against the Russians. And even today we have bigger problems than Russia to worry about. I swear, Russia resents being ignored more than anything else. The Russians simply miss being the "Big Bad." And they'll ef around to get the West to pay attention to them.
Yes: "The Trump administration’s movement of most U.S. troops out of Somalia to other countries in Africa 'probably' had 'significant downsides,' a Pentagon official said Thursday." I agree. I said that repeatedly. And the Biden administration decision to run all Somalia strike missions through the White House added to the downsides. Definitely.
I'm not on board much of this author's analysis, but he is spot on that military power is not synonymous with influence. I've argued that reducing our military power in the Middle East in recent years is not the same as reducing our influence.
Children aren't vulnerable to dying from the Xi Jinping Flu. But they sure are vulnerable to suicide from the extended lockdowns imposed on them. This policy has long outlived its usefulness. It is madness. Will there be any accountability for this epidemic? Tip to Instapundit.
The jihadi situation really is getting out of hand in Mozambique. The ability to attack a city for five days without drawing down significant government force is horrifying. I wonder if the British might step into this to assist local forces with their new global military posture? America is already committed to training there, as I noted last week.
Pay no attention to the woman behind the curtain!
In addition to chemical and biological weapons, North Korea wants nuclear weapons. But is this true? "As of January 2020, North Korea had 30 to 40 nuclear warheads and could produce enough fissile material for six or seven bombs a year, according to an estimate by the Arms Control Association." Does North Korea have up to 40 actual warheads mounted on missiles? Does North Korea even have warheads waiting for working missiles, as opposed to devices that can be exploded on the ground with thousands of scientists and technicians setting it off? Or is the warhead count simply a theoretical count based on estimates of how much nuclear material North Korea has processed into bomb-form by now?
A root cause of America's pandemic death toll (we have the 13th highest per capita) that must not be named. Although somehow the Bad Orange Man is probably responsible for that, too. Tip to Instapundit.
RIP Baltimore. Cabals of insane people are running many of our cities. When do people who must endure their policy madness say enough is enough?
Question: A disturbing number of analysts say we're supposed to understand Russia's aggressiveness and paranoia because the Russians fear invasion from the west. So why don't we support the Poles in occupying Moscow and Berlin? You know, if history justifies aggression ...
Another "known wolf." Because better dead than rude. Still, it's not like the FBI hasn't been busy. Tip to Instapundit.
I often tell myself that I don't feel old, even though I know I am basically old. Maybe there's something to that. Tip to Instapundit.
Somebody got a good hit with the clue bat: "Technology, rather than freeing the Chinese people, is ensnaring them in an Orwellian web of controls, where every word and movement is monitored by the state for any inkling of dissent. Xi’s government has locked up untold numbers of Uighurs in the western region of Xinjiang in what is the 21st-century equivalent of Siberian gulags — and thinks nothing of it. China also broke a treaty with the United Kingdom to get its hands on democracy activists in Hong Kong, many of whom are already behind bars." And China wants to normalize this brutal rule. I can't help but think that the Chinese are encouraging the propaganda that anti-Asian hate crime [NOTE: with the false implication that any increases are due to white people] is surging here is part of that normalization effort. It is a more clever version of their "hug a Chinese person" BS when the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic started a year ago. Or our own woke awful people could be doing it on their own, I suppose. Tip to Instapundit.
