There is good news from the Biden administration on defending the Iraq War gains.
Good:
The new administration’s goals for the war in Iraq, at least as briefly outlined last Tuesday to the United Nations Security Council, are likely to prolong U.S. involvement indefinitely.
“Among its top priorities, the United States will seek to help Iraq assert its sovereignty in the face of enemies, at home and abroad, by preventing an ISIS resurgence and working toward Iraq’s stability,” Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Richard Mills told his fellow diplomats. That means facilitating free and fair elections, Mills continued, plus fighting Iran-linked militias and terrorist groups like the Islamic State, as well as funneling money toward economic development, humanitarian improvements, and the elimination of corruption. “The United States will remain a steady, reliable partner for Iraq, and for the Iraqi people,” he concluded, “today and in the future.”
That’s an understatement. With goals as expansive and flexible as these, the United States will have a military presence and roster of associated nation-building projects in Iraq not only through the end of the Biden administration but for decades to come.
"Forever" as the title says is silly. We'll perhaps stay as long as we've stayed in Italy, Germany, and Japan after defeating them. As I wrote in a data dump last month:
We have Iraqi and Afghan governments who kill jihadis every day. Our troop strength in both countries is about 2,500 with few direct ground combat roles. Quagmires? I think not. Is South Korea a quagmire? Is Japan a quagmire? Europe? Defending wins isn't a "quagmire." It's defending America by supporting allies we created by force of arms.
Our time in Iraq lasting as long as they have so far in Europe and Japan doesn't mean large-scale combat.
But defending the win is an ongoing process. Will the Biden administration stay the course in the face of Iranian aggression and the siren song of Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0?
UPDATE: Yes:
“I think there's two major threats to the country of Iraq right now: One is the PMF” — the military abbreviation for the militia groups — “and two is the economy,” said Lt. Gen. Paul Calvert, the commander of the U.S.-led mission in Iraq and Syria. “Both left unattended is going to erode all the gains that have been made, in my mind.”
Arguably needed in mid-2014 to fight ISIL following the collapse of so many of Iraq's security forces, the militias are a threat now.
I worry most about the militias aligned with Iran, but they aren't the totality of the militia problem.
