China may not be interested in war to achieve their objectives. But their objectives could lead to war anyway.
A good analysis of China's strategic position:
China must maintain economic growth to maintain stability. It cannot take actions that would make this difficult. Nor can it tolerate the possibility of U.S. naval action that would cripple the Chinese economy. China’s current economic situation is satisfactory. Certainly, a war would not improve it. It is running a risk of U.S. action that would also cripple it. The key Chinese solution is to seek an accommodation with the United States on outstanding economic issues, being aware of the fact that the U.S. has no appetite for war and will initiate only under significant pressure from China. China must weaken the anti-China alliance by making it clear that it has no intention of waging war and that it will align its economy with others. In other words, China must decline combat and make economic and political peace – without appearing that it is doing so under duress.
Yes, in theory a war risks China's economy and therefore domestic stability. I can't argue against it. I've said I wouldn't trade positions with China.
But accidents and miscalculations happen when elbows are being thrown. I'm just not confident in the ability to send and read signals in a hot crisis.
Further, even if Xi doesn't want war, who can order the PLA into combat? Do those people understand China's poor strategic position or the real military balance?
And all bets are off on war if China endures domestic instability and sees a war as a distraction and means to rally the people. As I wrote in this old post:
Even if this logic is true, what if China faces an economic depression? Might not an invasion of Taiwan rally nationalistic support in the face of lack of economic progress? China's rulers wouldn't be the first to seek foreign conquest to still domestic unrest.
Stuff happens.
