The real force we need to sustain in Afghanistan is the military contractor contingent that keeps the Afghan combat forces in the fight.
Private military contractors are crucial to keeping the Afghan security forces in the fight:
In early 2021 the U.S. Department of Defense reported that there were 18,000 contractors in Afghanistan, about seven for each remaining American soldier. Demand for foreign military contractors has always been strong in Afghanistan and the current number is seen as inadequate. That’s because many of the contractors are needed to support Afghan forces, which are chronically short of locals who can supply such logistical and technical support for the security forces.
Technically they are "mercenaries" but that is a pejorative. There is more on Afghanistan and the background in general. I tend to speak of Russian "military contractors" rather than "mercenaries," too. Although I use the latter term as a description sometimes without the judgment angle.
Using military contractors is a revived practice in the post-Cold War world, as I used to write about in TDR more, which are collected here (for only 99 cents!).
I worry that if American troops go, other foreign troops will go. And if all the foreign troops are gone nobody will want to pay for the contractors. And then Afghanistan or parts of it serve as a haven for terrorists who will one day strike hard again.
As an aside, the military contractor issue always made it more difficult to use math to see if we had enough troops in the Iraqi and Afghan campaigns to win. Generally, you wanted 2% of the population in security forces to separate insurgents from the people. That separation could be to protect the people if the people were friendly to the government. Or to deny insurgents access to civilians for support, if the people were hostile to the government
In the past with more troops carrying out support functions, it was easier to count troop density in the fight. In the 21st century fights those contractors outnumbered our troops but did jobs that troops used to do. But weren't counted in determining troop density requirements. I tried to factor them in for the Iraqi campaign when news stories mentioned them but it wasn't easy. And I don't think I realized the full extent of their usage at the time. I still judged that we had enough troops to win, with a couple exceptions in time. I may have been wrong in those exceptions if you toss in the military contractors in their full numbers.
Anyway. Contractors aren't going away and their usage is spreading.
UPDATE: We need to stay:
Afghanistan’s military forces need U.S. assistance to successfully counter the Taliban, the top general for U.S. Special Operations Command told Congress on Thursday, amid debate over whether American forces should remain in the country beyond May 1.
If America pulls our troops out, NATO pulls its troops out. If all foreign troops leave, the contractors won't stay. Or won't stay long as Western will to pay for them wanes after leaving.
