In light of Putin’s desire to develop deeper ties with Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the ASEAN states, both in response to Russia’s continuing isolation from the West and to diversify away from China, Moscow’s willingness to join Beijing in bullying its neighbors appears quite short-sighted indeed. In fact, this decision underscores that Russia’s role in East Asia is not entirely “normal,” and is becoming less so as Beijing is ever more in the driver’s seat. Not only do these cases demonstrate Russia’s eagerness to act as China’s sidekick, they also show that Putin is willing to take actions, at least in Asia, on China’s behalf, even when they harm Russia’s own bottom line.
That's long been clear. And I think Russia's hostility to a non-threatening NATO is intended to conceal Russian appeasement of China behind a veil of pointless hostility toward the West:
Russia complains loudly about American and NATO plots against Mother Russia when in fact NATO in Europe has mostly disarmed while America was happy to not think about Russia much.
From our point of view, this makes no sense. Can't Russia see that the West is no threat while China is the threat? Why not work with us?
Well, from the Russian point of view, Russia is acting very logical.
Russian power collapsed in 1991, leaving their Far East vulnerable to China whose power soon began to rise even as Russia's power continued to erode.
Was it logical for Russia to openly treat China as a threat and cozy up to the West that was disarming and never going to help Russia defend the Amur River line?
Not really, when you think about it. Yes, in the end, Russia will have to recognize that China is a threat and not NATO. But we're far from whenever "the end" is and until then Russia can't afford to anger China.
So Russia sells weapons designed to point China's modernizing military out to see against America, Taiwan, and Japan rather than against Russia.
This isn't just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.
Which, as it was before World War II, a reasonable reaction to a stronger power that has gotten a bad name from World War II as a means to delude yourself into thinking you've stopped an aggressor with pieces of paper.
As I've written, appeasement properly done can make sense if it allows you to avoid war with a stronger power and then use that time to build up your strength to reverse that imbalance.
In many ways, that is what Russia is doing. They have been appeasing China until they can rebuild their strength.
I'm pretty sure Russia hoped that by now they would no longer have to appease China. Russia has to snatch the pebble from China's hand.
But that isn't working out, as Russia has helped to build a NATO focused on the Russian threat while still being too weak to hold of China in the east.
So Russia continues to bend the knee to China by sending forces against countries that Russia should want to trade with.
I've mentioned that Putin is effing up royally, haven't I? Without American help, Russia can't snatch the pebble from China's hand.
