America screwed sanctions tighter in the aftermath of the Soleimani Crisis:
The United States piled new sanctions on Iran's already crippled economy Friday and defended the killing of a top Iranian leader, saying he had been planning an "imminent" attack on US embassies.
Iran's provocations of attacking American forces in Iraq didn't compel America to retreat. But we didn't use Iran's escalation as an excuse to hammer Iran militarily. We added weight to our main effort in the sanctions war.
Let's look back to the First Gulf War between Iran and Iraq when denying Iran oil revenue:
More damaging to Iran's economy [than the Tanker War between Iran and Iraq] was the rapid decline of oil prices. While Iraq could borrow money to make up for lower oil prices, Iran relied on oil revenue for weapons and munitions. Iran's President Khamenei recognized this insurmountable fact of life stating "the price war is no less important to us than the military war." Indeed, in a July 1986 address to 8,000 Iranian commanders, Iran's rulers broke disturbing news that Iran's crumbling economy required a military victory by March 1987.
The Fao success [in 1986] may have reinvigorated Iranian morale but economic reality could be put off only so long. As Iran's war machine was starved of funds, Iran faced a daunting task of ending the war victoriously. Despite the Fao victory and the still potent ground force poised to strike Iraq again, time was running out for Iran.
With that financial defeat looming over them, Iran planned major offensive efforts to finally win their war against Iraq. The effort culminated in the major Karbala V offensive in 1987. It was big and bloody and took Iranian forces to the gates of Basra. But Iraq did not break:
On January 8, 1987, Karbala Five signaled its beginning when waves of Iranians rushed the Iraqi lines northwest of Khorramshahr. As Rafsanjani predicted, the Iraqis stood their ground and fought. Final victory was not, however, the result. In standing to fight, the Iraqis gunned down the Iranians who stubbornly attacked in the face of crippling losses as they slowly shoved the Iraqis back. By January 22, 1987, the Iranians had advanced to within ten kilometers of Basra, the objective on which Iran pinned her hopes of victory. By the fourth week of the offensive, Iran's attack force was spent and the Iranians dug in to hold their exposed positions at the outskirts of Basra. Iraq's counter-attack called upon all the available reserves and smashed the Iranians to end the offensive for good. Perhaps 20,000 Iranians died in the battle. Iraq's casualties were about half of Iran's. Iraq's performance is notable in that Iraq withstood and won the kind of brutal bloodletting that supposedly only Iran could endure. Observers at the time saw only that Iran had launched yet another in a seemingly endless series of big offensives. They speculated about how many more of these attacks Iraq could endure. Actually, Iran broke at Karbala Five. It would be many months before observers began to wonder what was wrong with Iran when no further attacks were begun, yet it was true that the "Islamic Revolution bled to death in Karbala V."
I fully expect Iran to launch a modern Karbala V-style offensive. I don't know what form it will take or where it might be. Although an attempted uprising by pro-Iran forces in Iraq (as happened in early 2004) seems the logical place to me while the Iranians still have proxies there (I hope we are trying to break them up).
Or the Iranian mullahs might turn to their old favorite to hate--the Jews--and order their Arab proxies in Hezbollah to open up a rocket barrage on Israel to fight and die for Iran.
Or maybe Iran will try to hit our Navy and bases in the Gulf region.
Or heck, maybe Iran when confronted with the choice of going big or going home decides to reject mullah-nutball rule from either major internal changes by the ruling class to save themselves--or a revolution. Who knows? Perhaps Iran's accidental shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner when Iran launched ballistic missiles at two bases in Iraq have constrained Iran's choices at least for a while.
Wherever Iran strikes if that is the choice they make, the key will be to hold the line and defeat them despite whatever initial losses the target endures. Iran broke after their big effort in 1987, even though it wasn't evident at the time.
Let's break the mullahs again if they go big.
