Friday, January 10, 2020

Public Tears and Private Smiles

I suspect Assad and Putin are secretly happy to have Soleimani dead. For a short stretch our interests coincided, I think.

This seems like a Russian reaction to our killing of Soleimani:

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Tuesday during a surprise visit to Damascus, his first since the start of the nearly nine-year-old war, the presidency said.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Damascus for a visit during which he met President Assad at the headquarters of the Russian forces," it said in a statement.

Assad lost a big player in organizing the defense of his regime. Russia may have felt the need to reassure Assad that he did not need Iran as long as Russia is there.

Yes, Soleimani was important in saving Assad's murderous regime (and turning it into an Iranian vassal):

Iran's frontman in Syria since 2011, Soleimani helped turn the tide in the now nearly 9-year-old civil war, intervening to save Assad as armed rebels neared the capital, Damascus, and seized key cities. He welded together Shiite militias from across the region to back Syria's military and waged sieges that captured back territory, wreaked destruction and prevented the collapse of Assad's state.

I noted Soleimani's role in pulling Russian into the war.

And honestly, Assad is probably happy Soleimani is dead. Since Assad is past the biggest crisis point of the rebellion and civil war (the multi-war, as I call it) he should want Iran out of Syria. At this point Iran's presence there only threatens to keep Syria a vassal state of Iran.

And Russia wants peace and quiet for their newly revitalized bases in Syria, which Iran's adventurism now threatens. Sure the multi-war was an opportunity for Russia to move into Syria and get their bases. But things change.