This [caution] changed significantly in recent weeks, signaling what is, in my opinion, the inevitable emergence of Turkish power. ...
Turkey wants to make it clear that the Eastern Mediterranean is a region where Turkish interests have to be considered. This places it at odds with almost every power in the region. For Moscow, the planned Turkish intervention in Libya runs counter to long-standing Russian interests. Although, it’s possible that Turkey and Russia have made a deal for the joint administration of Libya. Turkish claims in the Eastern Mediterranean also run counter to Israeli drilling projects off the coast of Cyprus. Israel has protested vigorously, in concert with Greece. Egypt, a backer of Haftar’s Libyan National Army, is also hostile to the Turkish move and has good relations with Israel and Greece and interests in protecting its resource-rich continental shelf. Thus, it appears that two blocs are emerging in the Mediterranean: Turkey and the Libyan GNA on one side, and Israel, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece and the Libyan LNA on the other.
The annual Strategypage survey of global conflict includes the possibility that Turkey and Egypt could clash in civil war-wracked Libya in support of rival factions. Which is interesting given the history of Egyptian-Ottoman wars, even when Egypt was technically part of the Ottoman Empire.
Heck, you could go back to ancient Egypt when it fought the Hittites I suppose.
Turkey's parliament has authorized sending troops to Libya. Think of the Greek-Cyprus-Israel gas pipeline deal a counter to Turkey's ambitions in the Mediterranean Sea. Is that enough?
But Turkey faces a lot of potential opposition unless it can deftly divide and conquer. What will the Arab League say about that direct military move? Is NATO going to be cool with one its members embarking on such an adventure? What will a lot of players think of it?
And really, has Turkey's military play in Syria been so successful that the Turks want to enter another civil war?
UPDATE: So what are they up to?
Turkey said on Sunday that its troops had begun deploying to support the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) -- which is battling a number of militant groups.
Troops as in advisors or troops as in combat units?
The GNA is a lousy outfit filled with jihadi militias.
UPDATE: Turkey faces opposition:
France, Greece, Egypt and Cyprus on Wednesday declared "null and void" agreements between Ankara and Libya assigning Turkey rights over a vast area of the eastern Mediterranean.
A statement issued by the foreign ministers of the four countries -- who met in Cairo -- said the controversial agreements undermined regional stability.
Their Italian counterpart, who also took part in the meeting, did not sign the statement.
The two agreements denounced by the four Mediterranean states are a military pact and a maritime deal, signed in November by the head of Libya's Government of National Accord Fayez al-Sarraj and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Rebuilding the quasi-empire won't be a cake walk.
