Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Back to the Shores of Tripoli

If Erdogan has ambitions of restoring the Ottoman Empire--in influence if not formal imperial notions--North Africa will have to be part of that.

Here we go:

For a number of years, the Turkish government has tried to strengthen relations with countries that were formerly part of the Ottoman Empire. It’s part of what GPF sees as Turkey’s re-emergence as a regional power. One of the regions in which it has tried to establish a growing presence is North Africa, where the Turkish president has spent much of this week on state visits. It’s important to remember, however, that Ankara still faces a number of barriers to restoring its past glory.

Arabs don't have fond memories of Turkish rule in the past, even if the abstract notion of an all-encompassing caliphate has appeal.

And if Turkey is willing to repel Iran's imperial ambitions at the expense of Arab states, Turkey will find a wedge to overcome memories of Turkish imperial rule.

Without Russia looming over Turkey as the Soviet Union had, Turkey clearly feels it can be a regional power rather than just another hoplite in the NATO  phalanx that stood against the USSR.

And having their own air defenses not integrated with NATO is part of Turkey's new flexibility in seeking allies:

Turkey and Russia have signed an accord for Moscow to supply Ankara with S-400 surface-to-air missiles, CNN Turk and other media reported on Friday, finalizing a deal the two countries have been working on for more than a year.

The S-400 deal, reportedly worth about $2.5 billion, has caused concern in the West because Turkey is a member of NATO and the system cannot be integrated into NATO's military architecture.

That NATO bug is a feature as far as Turkey is concerned. But while Russia is surely happy to deal a blow against NATO, Turkey isn't buying an alliance with Russia.

On the bright side, Russia rebuilding influence in the eastern Mediterranean will run into Turkish ambitions whether or not Turkey remains within NATO.