The Times They Are a Changing

On the North Korean nuclear question, I've long noted that America is willing to go along with South Korean worries about a conventional assault on Seoul as long as America can't be targeted by North Korean nukes. South Korea no longer has a veto.

That's all fine but America may not agree:

South Korea's foreign minister said on Thursday the standoff over North Korea's nuclear programme must be resolved diplomatically, and she was certain Washington would consult her government first if a military option were to be considered.

"The nuclear issue has to be solved through negotiations and diplomatic endeavours. This idea of a military solution is unacceptable," Kang Kyung-wha said at a news briefing on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Honestly, I've been impressed that this type of statement has been rather muted for the last year given the obvious divergence of our worries. South Korea has seemed pretty solid despite the threats to Seoul.

The thing is, America finds the idea of a nuclear threat from North Korea unacceptable. I am certain Washington will consult South Korea first prior to striking North Korea so our ally can prepare to defend Seoul, but consulting is not the same as asking permission.

And Japan seems more willing to hit North Korea alongside America if it diminishes the chance of also being the second country in history to be nuked.

So the changing situation may mean that America plans with Japan to strike North Korea while merely consulting with South Korea to give them a chance to cope with the North Korean response.

Or will China act against North Korea to make any type of American consultation moot?

My gut feeling is that our military has been told to gear up for a major strike campaign sometime in 2018, before we think North Korea can build nuclear missiles that can reach American territory.

And I think we've let the Chinese know that we will support them if they act forcefully to stop the North Koreans on this nuclear path--with trade deals favorable to China to follow.

So what do American consultations with China look like these days?

NOTE: A few saw this Saturday morning when my attempt to schedule this for today failed. Sometimes clicking on a date doesn't work and this time I didn't wait to make sure the date selected held before hitting publish. I also added a bit to the post in the interim.