Here we go:
North Korea says it has successfully tested a nuclear weapon that could be loaded on to a long-range missile.
The secretive communist state said its sixth nuclear test was a "perfect success", hours after seismologists had detected an earth tremor.
China, which seeks to dominate their portion of Asia, is basically being slapped in the face:
There is no sign though that China is willing yet to see that firm will go beyond UN sanctions, which recently clamped down on seafood and iron ore exports, in addition to the coal and minerals that are already banned from crossing the border.
It is noteworthy also that this test took place just as the Chinese president was about to welcome a handful of world leaders to the two-day showpiece Brics summit on China's east coast.
Even the state-controlled media will find it hard to ignore the fact that their man has been upstaged - embarrassed too - by its almost universally ostracised ally and neighbour.
And China has to know that if they don't act like the dominant power in Asia as they believe they should be, America will do something about North Korea and demonstrate very clearly that America is the dominant power in Asia.
And I don't believe that further sanctions are considered anything more than something to do while we prepare for a major strike campaign against North Korea's nuclear infrastructure from research and development, to engineering, to launching capacity (missiles, aircraft, runways, and whatever subs they are working on for launching missiles).
The major question I have is how much beyond that target list we go.
Do stealth, drones, and long-range missiles mean we can afford to ignore air defenses? Or must we destroy them?
Do we think a narrow anti-nuclear strike is something North Korea will absorb, believing China will protect them from regime change? Or do we think North Korea will lash out, requiring attacks on artillery north of Seoul, ships and subs in port, aircraft and runways, and command and control?
Would we strike bridges and other transportation choke points to complicate conventional responses?
Would we strike refineries to choke off any conventional offensive?
Heck, does South Korea believe it has to carve out a no-launch zone north of the DMZ to protect Seoul by occupying territory that can be used to bombard Seoul?
Nobody thinks diplomacy can change North Korea's mind about their nuclear path. Maybe at one time the North Koreans viewed their nuclear program as assets to be traded for goodies. But the thought of nukes is now the objective, very clearly.
My gut feeling is that our military has been told to gear up for a major strike campaign sometime in 2018, before we think North Korea can build nuclear missiles that can reach American territory.
And I think we've let the Chinese know that we will support them if they act forcefully to stop the North Koreans on this nuclear path--with trade deals favorable to China to follow.
Will China act before we do? That nuclear test is a signal loud and clear that the countdown has begun. That's my hunch.
UPDATE: I believe President Trump prides himself on not bluffing:
US President Donald Trump on Sunday denounced North Korea's detonation of what it claimed was a hydrogen bomb able to fit atop a missile, saying the time for "appeasement" was over and threatening drastic economic sanctions.
We will need time to prepare, gather, and train for a major strike. Our Secretary of Defense has no doubt we have a military option, as much as he has said it would be a horrible option:
[Secretary Mattis] says US "not looking to the total annihilation" of North Korea, but "we have many options to do so."
I do believe not totally annihilating North Korea could fit within that gray zone of military action that China would not try to stop.
UPDATE: We need time to prepare for a task of this magnitude because our military is still in the process of "rebalancing" from the emphasis on counter-insurgency. And money is needed, too, after a tighter belt the last 5 years or so.
That spending issue may seem odd given the still-large defense budget, but money that has to go to personnel, infrastructure, and procurement is often locked in; so training, maintenance, and stockpiles of spare parts and ammunition take the brunt of what seems like marginal cuts.
So any unit tasked with taking on North Korea needs to focus on conventional warfare and we likely have to stockpile ammunition and spare parts. That takes time.
