The Right Moment?

America is arming the Lebanese army so that it could take on Hezbollah which functions as a state-within-the state and which controls southern Lebanon where it prepares for war on Israeli civilians with a massive rocket arsenal. But the Lebanese army still requires somebody else to take down Hezbollah to fill the vacuum and try to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding.

Strategypage writes:

At the end of 2017 the U.S. agreed to provide Lebanon with another $120 million in military aid. This includes six MD530G helicopters, six Scan Eagle UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle) and assorted special communications and related equipment for ground troops to call in air strikes effectively.

Since 2006 the United States has provided over $1.5 billion in military aid (weapons, equipment, construction and training) to Lebanon. This was all in an attempt to restore peace in southern Lebanon and weaken the Iran backed Shia Hezbollah organization. The main goal of the U.S. aid was to revive the Lebanese army. ...

The Lebanese accepted the initial American offer, but there was considerable political blowback, and military threats, from Hezbollah. The Lebanese Army did not roll over, but they did not move on Hezbollah either. A frustrated United States stopped the aid effort at times, but then resumed because many in the Lebanese Army wanted to confront Hezbollah but cautioned that they had to wait for the right moment. That moment may be approaching because since 2011 Hezbollah has been increasingly sucked into the Syrian civil war. This is at the behest of Iran, who has financed, armed and trained Hezbollah since the 1980s.

I've written that I think the Israelis learned their lesson after screwing the pooch in their 2006 war that tried to rely on air power to stop Hezbollah and punish Lebanon into controlling Hezbollah. The next war, I think, will involve a large Israeli ground offensive that pushes all the way to Baalbek in what will be a large raid to really tear up Hezbollah infrastructure and kill as many of Hezbollah's army as they can before pulling out.

Since Iran sent Hezbollah to war in Syria on Assad's behalf, I figured the best timing for the Israeli strike would be when the war is winding down so that Hezbollah has experienced maximum damage there but before it can return to Lebanon and recover from the war.

Also, I've noted while discussing this possibility that Lebanon would have the opportunity to fill the vacuum after Israel withdraws. If the Saudis pull good chunks of the Arab world to back the Israelis in this anti-Iran operation--and Israel focuses on Hezbollah alone--Hezbollah might be destroyed as an Iranian proxy force.