This is ominous:
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday Turkish forces would sweep Kurdish fighters from the Syrian border and could push all the way east to the frontier with Iraq -- a move which risks a possible confrontation with U.S. forces allied to the Kurds.
While you can't rule out stupidity or premature delusions of grandeur, Turkey isn't capable of standing on its own as a regional power yet. So moving east of the Euphrates River to hit the focus of America's efforts in Syria--the Kurds with some Arabs to broaden the coalition beyond the Kurds--would be a major break with America.
And as much as America needs to keep the Kurds happy-ish, I doubt America would do more than try to limit the collateral damage (that's dead people) and duration of the Turkish ground operation so far confined to the west.
But Turkish statements that they might push east make it look like a compromise if they stop after gaining a buffer in the west.
And since the Turkish operation really is anti-Assad and Russia backs Assad, Turkey can't totally anger the counter-weight to long-time enemy Russia.
I can't help but think that there is some acting going on here when everyone knows the Turkish operation will be limited to the west.
Just a hunch and I could be wrong, of course. Just in case I'll repeat that I would quietly withdraw our nuclear bombs stored in Turkey so Erdogan doesn't get the idea he could get an instant nuclear deterrent by sending in special forces to take our nukes. Yes, there are probably safeguards to prevent use. But Erdogan could claim to have bypassed them. And given time he might. Or maybe just getting the nuclear material is enough of a head start on nukes for him.
As I think about it, it would be funny if our bombs in Turkey are actually inert and just a placebo stockpile.
UPDATE: This might be the olive branch that restricts Turkish operations to west of the Euphrates:
The United States has told Turkey it will not provide any more weapons to the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, the Turkish presidency said on Saturday, as Turkey's offensive against the U.S.-backed YPG in Syria entered its eighth day.
We probably gave them enough anyway. And the unstated "we can add to their arsenal if needed" if Turkey goes too far is likely understood. We have recognized that Turkey has legitimate security concerns. Does Turkey also recognize American security concerns?
UPDATE: More, including a discussion of why the Kurds under assault in northwest Syria are outside of the American defense umbrella.
