But if Assad realizes these minimalist aims—survival and the restoration of Syria’s territory—his victory will be a Pyrrhic one. He will sit atop a hollow state with weak institutions, beset with war profiteers, and subservient to external powers.
I've not been impressed with Assad's win. But it is a win given that defeat would have left Assad obviously dead or exiled:
Assad reigns over the destroyed remnants of Syria but does not rule, because his position behind the big desk relies on Iranian cash, advisors, special forces, the Shia foreign legion Iran recruited, and Iran's Hezbollah shock troops; as well as Russian air power, special forces, intelligence, diplomatic support, weapons, and logistics.
But Assad does sit behind the big desk. Despite President Obama telling him he had to step down.
So any type of win is an improvement over defeat. Surely he'll take the challenge of recovering from this victory than a defeat. Yet part of Assad's victory was his calculated destruction of Syria.
And his shattered military power is increasingly independent of Assad like fiefdoms that pledge loyalty.
So have no doubt, Assad has challenges even after the battlefield victory:
Will Assad's supporters continue to back Assad for presiding over this death and destruction to get the nominal win when the threat of jihadi victory in Damascus no longer keeps his supporters in line? ...
I won't say Assad has won. He is winning. And winning more clearly now. But I don't assume that can't change in some unexpected way, I don't assume Syria (or even just the core Syria Assad's side controls now) will be politically united again any time soon, I don't assume Assad can regain control from Iran and escape Lebanon's fate where Iran-controlled Hezbollah prevents the formal government from being in charge, and I don't assume Assad personally survives the win.
On the other hand, Assad reached this point despite teetering on the edge of defeat early in the fighting. It was so bad for Assad that President Obama felt safe to jump in front of the parade to declare Assad had to step down, confident that a mere statement would allow America to share in the glory of Assad's defeat.
Assad won the war by surviving. But Syria has lost. And Assad could yet fall in the bloody "peace" he is yet to win.
