Bloody, Costly Victory

If the evacuation of this small rebel group in the Ghouta pocket is the template for the remainder (and if this repeat deal continues it is a trend), Assad's side will have won a major victory. Can these factions shift to insurgency after losing territorial control? Can Assad hold what he takes?

Strategypage writes that with the Ghouta victory, Turkey's defeat of Kurds in the northwest, and America's defeat of ISIL in the east, Assad has sort-of won. [Note that the post keeps referring to Kurds in "northwest" Syria but except when speaking of the Afrin region, they clearly mean "northeast."]

Yet the east is run by Kurds and Arabs with American-led coalition support, with some ISIL still running loose. There are rebels in the south still holding ground but fairly quiet. There are pockets of rebels in the west as well, but none seem terribly powerful. And although Turkey has hammered the Kurds in the northwest, is Turkey really a friend of Assad? Turkey is holding the ground up there and it doesn't seem as if Assad's authority will be restored there.

He is clearly winning for the moment, but if he has sort of won the situation is like the "post-Syria Assad" I discussed where Assad holds only part of Syria. Sadly, we got here in addition to the death toll and destruction rather than as an alternative to the death toll and destruction. But is this a transition stage to Assad's defeat?

Even if America, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia don't seek to overthrow Assad in his core Syria, will Assad be able to unify the splintered Syria he does control and regain authority that Iran now weilds?

Will Assad's supporters continue to back Assad for presiding over this death and destruction to get the nominal win when the threat of jihadi victory in Damascus no longer keeps his supporters in line?

Total casualties in the Syrian civil war are north of 500,000 dead since the first protests in 2011 shifted to rebellion, civil war, and foreign intervention (the global jihadi movement, Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Iran, Russia, and America). For all the brutality, most deaths have been combatants and civilian casualties are "only" 100,000. This is more than the Iraq War total pre-2011 civilian death toll, but different in nature. In Iraq the civilians deaths were mostly caused by the terrorist enemies while in Syria most were killed by the Assad government which deliberately attacked civilians to drive millions of potential rebel supporters out of the country.

I won't say Assad has won. He is winning. And winning more clearly now. But I don't assume that can't change in some unexpected way, I don't assume Syria (or even just the core Syria Assad's side controls now) will be politically united again any time soon, I don't assume Assad can regain control from Iran and escape Lebanon's fate where Iran-controlled Hezbollah prevents the formal government from being in charge, and I don't assume Assad personally survives the win.

On the other hand, Assad reached this point despite teetering on the edge of defeat early in the fighting. It was so bad for Assad that President Obama felt safe to jump in front of the parade to declare Assad had to step down, confident that a mere statement would allow America to share in the glory of Assad's defeat.

I just thank God we didn't intervene early in the fighting by helping the then non-jihadi rebellion and further militarize the conflict.

UPDATE: Casualties might be north of 500,000, but they may not have yet reached that milestone.