"There is a rumor that Vagner is a so-called meat-grinder project," one of the [Russian mercenary unit] commanders said. "What is to be done with those who fought in Donbas? With the idiots from the first wave who are real ideologues? These are scary people who could catalyze society. They can cause trouble like yeast in bread. But in Syria, you can help the interests of the country and get rid of some yeast at the same time. That's what some people are saying. And probably there is something to it."
That's pretty brutal. Not that I don't think former KGB Putin could do it. But what about Ukraine veterans would make them so dangerous? Surely they aren't a threat to overthrow the government or to be criminals or terrorists, right?
Or is it something as simple as Putin not wanting them to speak about Russia's role in Ukraine's Donbas war?
Of course, maybe these particular veterans are as dangerous as believed. Or maybe Russian rulers believe that is the case.
Not that this is unheard of. China did send former Nationalist soldiers to die in the Korean War, according to something I read long ago, to kill off potential internal threats while killing foreign enemies. Two birds with one stone.
I've also speculated that at least one reason for Saddam to invade Kuwait in 1990 was to keep the army busy in a war so it wouldn't be a threat to him. I figured Saddam couldn't afford to discharge all the soldiers needed to fight Iran in the recently ended Iran-Iraq War not only because Iran might renew the war but also because the Iraqi veterans could be a threat to Saddam. Yet Saddam couldn't afford to keep them in uniform without capturing the bank (Kuwait) after Arab subsidies to fight Iran dwindled (Kuwait had sold oil in Iraq's name from a border field).
And I've also wondered if North Korea might start a war it knows it will lose on the assumption that South Korea and America would kill off large parts of a dangerous standing army it can't afford to reduce lest military-age men be out of the government's control, while not going for the kill to overthrow the regime.
A dangerous belief if it is widespread among Russians is the sentiment expressed by one mercenary that America may be able to build missiles but that American troops can't fight on the ground:
"If we have to fight with America, we will win," he said. "They don't know how to fight. As Putin said, you can invent all sorts of missiles, but you can't invent people like we have. Our people -- they know how to sacrifice themselves."
Given that American troops since 9/11 have been battling and killing jihadis up close and personal in infantry combat (backed by those missiles, of course), that is wrong. The Germans and Japanese believed that to be true, too, before attacking or declaring war on America in World War II, and got stomped for their delusions.
Also, as Patton said (well, as George C. Scott portraying Patton said), nobody won a war by dying for their country. They won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country.
Also note the mercenary impression that the Syrian troops are really wary of risking their lives given the heavy casualties they've endured so far in the war (somebody has to live to carry on a family line, basically).
As an aside, since the Russian invasion of Crimea I've said that Russia will be stopped by body bags going back to Russia. Russia is no longer the country that will endure 30 million dead to win a war.
But if the body bags don't go home, will Russian opinion that doesn't want to sacrifice for the Donbas or Syria be affected?
And I seriously wonder if Putin's government could simply simulate dead soldiers/mercenaries online with Facebook, Twitter, email, and texts to keep friends and families ignorant of the death, slowly cutting back on contact until Russians at home simply think their friend is in a new life out of sight and out of mind.
An interesting article worth the read.
