Assad's forces are on offense in Idlib province against rebels and terrorists that Turkey backs. This should be interesting:
Last week, Syrian troops surrounded a Turkish observation post outside the village of Surman, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor.
"We will in no way evacuate or abandon the 12 observation points where our soldiers are heroically and with devotion fulfilling their duties to ensure a cease-fire," said Turkey's Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, as quoted by the the state-run Anadolu Agency. “We will continue to remain there.”
Akar also called on Russia to use its influence to stop the Syrian government offensive. He spoke while inspecting troops near Turkey's border with Syria.
So who blinks first and veers away from collision?
Turkey opposes Assad. Russia backs Assad. Erdogan and Putin are also trying to be friends.
In the big picture, Russia would be more than happy to throw Assad under the bus if Erdogan took Turkey out of NATO and gave Russia bases in Turkey and provided clear navy access through the Turkish Straits between the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
Sure, Putin loses a bit of the reputation of standing up for any thug ruler ally no matter what. But the lure of the straits and Incirlik may be too great if given the choice.
But is Erdogan really ready to make such a big leap into the arms of a hereditary enemy and frankly weak patron? If Erdogan is going to ditch America and NATO, he'll go to China. Which is probably still a mistake but less risky than counting on Russia.
And what does Assad do, as elephants collide around him, trying to avoid being crushed as collateral damage to their interests (and don't forget Iran)?
It's nice to see thug rulers with dilemmas.
