Well, that’s very interesting. Because the the UK is essentially leaving Europe. So what does that do? Well, it leaves mainland Europe more open to the power of Germany, given that Spain, Italy and Greece have real systemic problems. And then there’s France which can’t get any economic reform done. So that leaves Germany as the most successful of the major powers on mainland Europe and leaving Europe in the hands of Germany – when the next generation of German leaders may not have the wisdom of the Kohls, the Schmidts, the Adenauers and even the Merkels, who had a deep deep knowledge of World War Two and memories of the Cold War – I think that leaves Britain at the mercy of a very disorganised, less united Europe over which Russia and China will be vying for influence.
I would not be surprised if down the road, Germany leans more in the direction of Moscow, because that’s the path of least resistance: take the second Nord stream gas pipeline from Russia, have an informal German-Russian Alliance. This is the fear – I’m not predicting it, it’s just a fear I have. And that would leave Britain relying even more on the United States. Because I think by being a member of the EU, with its Atlantic connection, allowed Britain to punch above its weight. I fear in the future that might not be the case.
Britain isn't leaving Europe. It is leaving the European Union. Britain was a European power long before the EU and it can be again. It has the 5th or 6th largest GDP. It is 21st in population. and has the 6th or 7th largest defense budget (and has nuclear weapons). Britain matters by itself.
Nor do I see Britain as key to blocking Germany. I think British power is diluted and harnessed to the political weight of the majority in the EU. And also, isn't that kind of an odd thing to worry about given Germany's long post-Hitler democracy. Is Germany really that suspect?
And practically speaking given Germany's teetering wreck of a military, what would Germany do the the rest of Europe, bleed on them?
Rather than leaving Britain at the mercy of a disorganized and less united Europe, I think that such a Europe is what Britain should want. Traditionally, Britain has wanted to prevent a single power from controlling Europe to Britain's disadvantage. You know what I think about what the EU would do regarding Russia.
Nor do I think that Britain's departure from the EU makes German outreach to Russia less likely given what Germany has done with Britain in the EU.
And again, I don't think EU membership allows Britain to punch above its weight. I think the EU shackles British power and puts it at the service of a continental proto-imperial power that could revert to its pre-World War II norms and damage freedom and democracy.
Indeed, if the non-German states in Europe fear Germany that much, without Britain in the EU won't that increase support in those European states for a stronger NATO that can constrain Germany? A stronger NATO is certainly good for America.
I just don't see the downside of Britain leaving the EU for Britain, America, or even Europeans themselves, if they value freedom.
Just keep NATO strong and we'll all be better off.
UPDATE: Johnson wins decisively:
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party will win a resounding victory in Britain's election with a parliamentary majority of 86 seats, an exit poll showed on Thursday, empowering him to deliver Brexit on Jan. 31.
It should not have taken what is essentially a second Brexit vote, but this is what happened.
Normally the EU playbook is to insist on votes until they get the "right" outcome. I'm hoping Britain will end that ploy.
