For more than seven months there have been no North Korean ballistic missile launches or nuclear weapons tests. At the same time North Korea is simultaneously dismantling some missile facilities while continuing to expand some nuclear facilities. North Korea asks for some economic help but refuses to discuss verification or timetable of verifiable disarmament measures that would also include commensurate economic aid for successful North Korea completion of timetable items. American disarmament experts believe it is possible for North Korea to dismantle (and have verified) its nuclear weapons program within a year but there are no signs North Korea is moving to do that. At the same time the North Korean economy is collapsing after several years of stabilizing and even growing (because of allowing some free market activity).
North Korea appears uncertain as to whether they should really disarm. The habit of doing enough to get aid flowing and then resuming nuclear work quietly seems strong despite the economic problems.
But even if this is indecision, if by dithering North Korea buys time to go fully nuclear with long-range missiles, won't the side arguing against nuclear disarmament essentially win?
Is it possible that American-led pressure with Chinese cooperation can disarm North Korea even if North Korea fully crosses the line to have the ability to strike American cities?
I simply no longer hear or read about estimates about when North Korea could get the ability to hit American cities. Has that date been put off or are we simply not talking about it to allow for that possibility?
Honestly, I thought we were preparing to strike North Korea if they didn't take irreversible steps to openly start disarming. And I thought, base on estimates floating around last year, that we'd have launched a major military campaign by mid-2018--which has passed--if that didn't happen.
What is going on? Is North Korea still progressing toward long-range nuclear missile capability? Do we know they aren't? How sure are we that China is working with us? And is the military option locked and loaded?
Oh, and there is a bonus section on China's economic penetration of the Russian Far East near the Chinese border that might take demographically what Russia seized from China in the 19th century.
