It is my firm conviction that the continuing rise of China will have huge consequences for Taiwan, almost all of which will be bad. Not only will China be much more powerful than it is today, but it will also remain deeply committed to making Taiwan part of China. Moreover, China will try to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere, which means it will seek to reduce, if not eliminate, the American military presence in Asia. The United States, of course, will resist mightily, and go to great lengths to contain China’s growing power. The ensuing security competition will not be good for Taiwan, no matter how it turns out in the end. Time is not on Taiwan’s side.
It's an old piece reprinted. But it reflects a common view of giving up to the inevitable, making it a "pragmatic realistic" option to just abandon Taiwan to the inevitable.
As long as Taiwan arms up and presents China with a target who will fight and make China pay a price, China can be deterred from invading.
Cuba was not doomed to be invaded and conquered by America.
Finland was not doomed to be invaded and conquered by Russia or the Soviet Union.
Pakistan is not doomed to be invaded and conquered by India.
Vietnam is not doomed to be invaded and conquered by China.
Gaza is not doomed to be invaded and conquered by Israel.
A severe power disparity does not mean that the more powerful will attack even if the potential attacker really wants the target. Nothing takes place in a binary vacuum. Other interests are at play. Domestic audiences that might cheer a short and glorious war will turn on you for a quagmire.
And even China, which says Taiwan is a core interest that it would go to war over, might lose interest in that objective given time and changing circumstances.
Heck, even if China remains focused on taking Taiwan no matter the cost, Taiwan might find that it must up the ante by going nuclear, inviting foreign forces to Taiwan, or even fomenting a democratic revolution in China as the only way to survive the growing imbalance of military power.
But in the meantime, Taiwan needs to arm up and be a hard target at every level of a fight.
