The growing unrest in southern Iraq is spreading and in early July became more anti-corruption than anti-Iran. This switch in target was not encouraged by senior Shia clerics and most of them were slow to give public support to the protestors. Tribal leaders were more in touch with how most Iraqis live and did not encourage protests but also refused government requests that tribal chiefs call for calm. The chiefs point out that the government does nothing for the unemployed tribesmen and if those tribesmen, especially the younger ones, complain, government officials accuse them of working for Iran, Israel. Saudi Arabia or the hated (by Shias) Saddam government. So far the violence has left fifteen dead and over 700 wounded.
This outbreak of violent protests is not unexpected. Similar protests are going on in Iran and for the same reasons. There are differences though because Iraq has not been under any sanctions and is a democracy compared to the religious dictatorship in Iran. Yet it’s been fifteen years since the decades of Iraqi Sunni minority dictatorship was overthrown and democracy gave the Shia Arabs (60 percent of the population) control of the government. This was supposed to make life better for the Shia majority, and the Kurdish minority (20 percent of Iraqis). It hasn’t, mainly because of corruption.
While Shias got more resources after Shias dominated, Shia politician corruption soon clawed back those gains and reduced the Shias to their former levels of poverty.
Iraq has voting. Which is part of democracy. And one day it might be more honest than Chicago voting. But Iraq lacks an essential component of voting that is less appreciated--rule of law. Corruption is what you get when you don't have rule of law. And while Saddam no longer puts Shia opponents through plastic shredders, in the area of providing resources corruption is proving just as bad for the Shia as Saddam. Don't ever think that corruption doesn't kill. It does.
It is so bad that even with the urging of the respected top Shia cleric in Iraq, Sistani, to do something, the corruption rages under new management:
Iraq's top Shi'ite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called on Friday for a government to be formed as soon as possible to tackle corruption and poor basic services.
We need to help Iraqis defeat corruption and build rule of law. The defeat of ISIL in Iraq War 2.0 doesn't end the fight--it just changes it. As ISIL reverts to insurgency and terrorism after losing their territory, the fight for rule of law becomes an even more important weapon to defeat them. Corruption lets terrorists pass checkpoints and makes people more receptive to looking the other way if it benefits them personally.
This is frustrating to me. Even before the original Iraq War, as the fight raged, and in the years that followed through battlefield victory and eventual American withdrawal from Iraq, I called for helping Iraq get rule of law to build democracy.
And I called for this again last year:
It is of course important for the American military to remain in Iraq after the Islamic state caliphate is broken in order to help the Iraqis hunt down ISIL remnants; and to keep an eye on training standards in the Iraqi security forces.
But that is not the only thing that should be on the 30-day review of the fight against ISIL (and jihadis in general, including al Qaeda that is rebuilding).
It is also important to have a surge of FBI and court advisors to help the Iraqis build a law enforcement system with rule of law that does not leave so many holes for the jihadis to enter Iraqi life and kill Iraqis.
And advisors on how to run government agencies as something other than personal enrichment fiefdoms.
This must be a government-wide effort and not just a military effort.
This will be the next Iraq War. We need to win that too.
Win this war and democracy can become a practical rather than aspirational alternative in the Arab world to autocrats or Islamists for a governing system.
Bush 43 won the military campaign in Iraq and left office before he could be judged on the rule of law fight. President Obama failed to win the rule of law war, which led to ISIL rising. To his credit, he launched Iraq War 2.0.
And now Trump has finished Iraq War 2.0 and has the responsibility to win the rule of law war in Iraq. Will he fight this war that so clearly needs to be won to prevent a kinetic Iraq War 3.0?
