Sunday, July 22, 2018

Weekend Data Dump

India's carrier plans continue to languish. Although I'm not terribly sure that big carriers are appropriate for India which would need to fight a sea control campaign against China rather than a power projection mission against weaker states. Those are different missions. Those Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles aren't just for America, remember.

There are Germans who want to spend more on defense. My frustration with Germany shouldn't lead you to the opinion that no Germans are ready to defend NATO and the West. But the German Left is opposed and even describes it in terms of not "caving" to Trump's demands, neglecting that it is actually an Obama demand first made in 2014 and repeated (quietly, and so easily ignored) until he left office.

Nice try parasites, we already snubbed you guys in 1776. Britain is a good friend of America that I value. But while they are free to bow and curtsy to their royals, I don't share that trait, thank you very much.

Nigerian troops are pretty awful if a base of over 700 troops is overrun. Hundreds who fled a Boko Haram attack were still missing as of this story, when but 60 or so had returned following the battle. no word on casualties.

The Navy amphibious warfare carrier Essex set sail with a full aviation element emphasizing F-35Bs. It really isn't a light carrier. But the Navy is seeing how well it can function as one. Normally the air element would have mostly helicopters with a handful of fighters. But while the story doesn't mention it, I think the ship can hold 20 F-35Bs plus a small number of other craft. Ideally, V-22s in a tanker role would be with the air component.

The birthplace of the Syrian revolt in the south has fallen as pro-Syrian forces continue the offensive to clear out rebels near the Israeli and Jordanian borders.  Will rebels revert to insurgent tactics after their territorial hold is destroyed?

Prime Minister May is being pushed to a harder Brexit. Which isn't bad if it doesn't derail Brexit. I swear, the Russians must be kicking themselves for trying to hold an empire with troops and secret police rather than smothering cheese regulations.

Afghan and local tribes are openly turning against the Pakistani-backed Taliban/drug gang alliance that wreaks havoc in Afghanistan. Whether that matters in the face of the corruption, guns, and brutality of that alliance is the question.

Vietnam, lying on China's border, is in no mood to be pushed around by China. But they need friends to really resist China's demands for compliance with Chinese demands.

The British unveil their plans for a 6th generation fighter plane.

While Israeli conquest of the Golan Heights was justified given past Syrian military actions, I don't think America should recognize its annexation by Israel. Do we really want to set this kind of standard for Russia in Europe and China in Asia? If Syria wants to make a deal that sells the Golan Heights to Israel to get help rebuilding Syria after the multi-war is finally over, that's another thing altogether.

This is an interesting article on the legal authority of tweets--and it starts in Norway. I did write almost a year ago that I didn't understand how a presidential tweet about a military issue isn't an order to the military.Which means the preparation of tweets has to be taken as seriously as any other communication by a government official. I suspect that Trump's tweets are the first and last example of freely written and unvetted communications by a president that had defined this presidency. It will have been an interesting period of seeing first-person presidential opinions in real time.

Michigan ANG A-10 in Latvia:

Let's review standard liberal opinion on the Russian threat a mere 7 months before Democrats went full Jack (D.) Ripper, worrying about our precious bodily fluids social media integrity.

DARPA wants to redesign how electronics are developed, to speed up development.

Russians went after Republicans, too, in 2016.

Wow, Iran isn't even pretending that Assad runs Syria: "Syrian rebels and Iranian-backed negotiators have reached a deal to evacuate thousands of people from two rebel-besieged Shi'ite villages in northwest Syria in return for the release of hundreds of detainees in state prisons, opposition sources said."

Japan and the European Union signed a free trade pact. Because of fears of Trump, it is said. Okay. Trump says he wants no tariffs. But if that scary prospect got them to make a deal, fine. So I have no problem with the EU working with Japan. But say, why is the EU playing such hard ball with Britain during Brexit negotiations over trade while making a deal with Japan?

Well, sure. But Erdogan's Turkey should stop doing a lot of things if it wants to be a trusted NATO ally and member of the West. What are the odds of that? Oh, and clarification of an issue. The F-35 that Turkey has is in Arizona where Turkish pilots will learn to fly it. It isn't scheduled to go to Turkey until next year at the earliest. Unless Turkey shapes up, it should never make it--or have an unfortunate accident that makes it a total loss. Oops.

I suppose we will see how deep jihadis have to dig to have the protection of Allah.

China carried out military drills that they pointedly said were directed at Taiwan. I think my Taiwan invasion scenario holds up well. Ominously, the Chinese seem to imply they'd operate against Japan's Senkaku Islands as part of a Taiwan operation.

While I think Germany's refusal to spend on defense or do more than watch other allies do the defending "undermines" NATO far more than the president's recent statement about Montenegro, I do have to say of the latter, oh good grief.

I worry that North Korea has won the negotiations game by entering into talks that can be strung out long enough for North Korea to go nuclear. If an alternative to talks is a military strike, this delay could make that option too late. If we think we can deter a nuclear-armed North Korea, prevent proliferation, and avoid horrible errors in North Korean launch procedures, that doesn't matter. I'm worried the delay matters.

We had a CIA director who voted for a communist for president??!! Thanks Obama! I don't know how I missed that. He started in the CIA in 1980. So the Carter administration gets some blame, too, I guess.

Russian relations with Greece are rocky with accusations of Russia trying to stoke tensions between Greece and Macedonia. To think it wasn't many years ago that I thought Russia might try to "flip" Greece amidst their financial crisis within the European Union. If that was ever a thought in Moscow, Erdogan of Turkey made Turkey a bigger prize for Russia to pursue.

This is about right on policy, no? "After the summit: No new cold war, but no warming of ties either[.]" Never mind the blather in the article, as a matter of policy we don't want to over-focus on Russia when it is a regional military power (with lots of nukes--God knows how many actually work, of course ...) and when China is rising as a threatening power; but we do want to deter Russia which has the military edge in the short run against eastern NATO countries.

I strongly disapprove of the president's performance in the Helsinki press conference, contrary to most Republicans, especially in light of the tweet blaming America for bad US-Russian relations. But I don't think it will have lasting--if any--effects. And on Russian policy the president is fine so far. Oh, and why do Republicans doubt Russia interfered in our election--as Russia and the Soviet Union before it have done for decades? But then I should ask why so many Democrats think Russia engineered Trump's victory. Russia did not do that and I don't think they were trying to get Trump elected.

You know, I recently read somebody I have respected defend Europe's defense effort by saying that Europe spends more on defending Europe than America spends on defending Europe. Defending Europe is just a small part of our military's responsibility! Europe devotes very little of their defense effort to being able to fight outside of Europe. Seriously, have we reached peak stupid yet? The entire premise of the article is based on the speculation, "what if Trump is trying to break up NATO"(!). Yes, that would be a major thing, yet there is no evidence of that spectacular speculative premise. Get a grip people.

If you just took combat units and ignored logistics--a limiter that helps European NATO states--I think the best 3 armies in NATO are the United States Army, the United States Army National Guard, and the United States Marine Corps.

An example of why India's military procurement bureaucracy couldn't pour water out of a boot if the instructions were written on the heel.

Technology, Arab allies, a friendlier American administration, and a bloodied Hezbollah make Israel's ability to hit Iran's nuclear infrastructure superior to what it was at the beginning of the decade. I thought thinking outside of the box could have enabled an Israeli strike. It might not have worked but it might have been worth the shot if the alternative was a 100% chance of Iran going nuclear.

Macedonia is on the track to join NATO, which would be the 30th member state. I like adding European states to NATO to prevent them from being potential bridgeheads for potential enemies and to make sure there are no "no go" air space and land transportation routes behind NATO's borders.

An American stripper is being celebrated as some feminist icon here; while in Iran fully clothed dancers are being rounded up. Because there, dancing is indeed a crime. It is safer to protest patriarchy here where it doesn't actually exist. May the Iranians finally be freed of their oppression against all people.

This article notes Chinese activity in Africa in the context of "waning" American interest. Waning? Certainly we have more pressing and vital interests in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. But when AFRICOM is busier than ever helping Africans resist jihadis and when America continues its AIDS fight, how is it possible to say our interest is waning?

Is this collusion or nuance? I'm so confused.

I'd been told that Canadians care so much more than Americans. Policy is hard.

Putin said NATO should not get closer to Ukraine and Georgia, threatening vague consequences. I find it outrageous that we should be forbidden to have good relations--and that Ukraine and Georgia must not have closer relations with NATO or anyone else they want--because Russia says so. No nation is doomed to Russian domination, and people who blame America for poor relations with Russia effectively go along with that outrageous demand. Perhaps Russia should try to not be total bastards. Maybe then neighbors won't be so eager to distance themselves from Russia.

Rebel control of territory in western Syria is crumbling, symbolized by the evacuation by Israel of 800 "White Helmet" rescue team members and their families to Jordan. Will resistance to Assad in the west continue lower down the escalation ladder as an insurgency (and given most of the surviving rebels, with terrorism)?

The violence in South Sudan is pretty damning of the longstanding complaint that European colonial boundaries caused Africa's problems. Carving South Sudan out of Sudan didn't make South Sudan a peaceful place on the road to democracy and rule of law. Of course, the Organization of African Unity officially considers borders beyond revision by force despite the complaints.

In response to a Gaza sniper who killed an Israeli soldier, Israel unleashed a destructive wave of attacks on Hamas infrastructure. Hamas responded by agreeing to a ceasefire, thus proving that the Israeli response was "proportional." As I've often said, "As long as civilians aren't needlessly risked, my view is that if an enemy still resists, you haven't exceeded proportionality."

Meanwhile, 300 Nicaraguan protesters have been killed in the last three months and the world doesn't care--because somehow Palestinians were elected Queen of the Victims Prom.