Interesting:
Coal had powered the Chinese economic miracle for decades. But as anger grew from a wealthier population over smog that engulfed their cities, President Xi Jinping’s government turned to natural gas, as well as renewables, for cleaner sources of energy. The discovery of big, exploitable reserves inside the shale formations of southwestern China seemed to come at the perfect time.
But the shale is deep and in scattered pockets. Thus far it has proven beyond reach.
We should hope China succeeds.
One, an increase in a fungible vital global resource helps us by making the supply less scarce and so cheaper. That helps America and our allies even if it helps China.
But more important is my view on China's strategic orientation. I want China pointed inland and not out to sea where American interests off and on the coast of east Asia must be defended from Chinese power and ambitions (here quoting from a 2005 post about how Russia essentially pointed China at America with their arms sales):
No, defeating China makes the best of the worst case and deterring China makes the best of the second worst case. We need to shovel the Snow back north. We need to play the Great Game in Asia to achieve our best case--a China pointed away from the south--Taiwan and the United States and our other allies--and pointed toward the north and the interior of Asia.
In that 2016 post about China's plans to build trade routes inland (now OBOR or just Belt and Road, or whatever the latest Chinese buzz term is) I wrote:
So such a Chinese initiative will help America by dividing Chinese military efforts away from a focus on sea and air power; by getting Russia to worry about China instead of mythical threats from NATO (and if China comes to Europe, having a sane Russia cooperate with or even join NATO makes sense rather than being nonsense pretending a North Atlantic Treaty Organization should guarantee Russia's Far East from Chinese threats); by pushing Chinese power into contact with European military power--which America could never count on to help us in the South China Sea--Europe will tie down Chinese power that makes it to Europe's neighborhood; and India will have more incentive to cooperate with America as Chinese power flows around India's northern borders.
Indeed, if China is no longer so reliant on sea lines of communication through the South China Sea because it has significant trade routes inland, perhaps China won't be so willing to go to war with America to gain absolute control over the western Pacific region.
So I don't react with alarm at China's New Silk Road. I react with a guarded sigh of relief. If China is going to rise--and stay there--I'd rather have as many potential foes of China facing China as possible.
So may China extract their shale gas. If it comes to war I want to beat China. But it sure would be nice if it didn't come to war.
