In Helsinki, Finland, where he was attending a summit with United States President Donald Trump, on July 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that restoring peace and harmony to Syria could become an effective example of Russo-U.S. cooperation. And he added that both states have all the “requisite elements” for that cooperation thanks, at least in part, to their military coordination in Syria (The Kremlin, July 16). These comments suggest not only that, during their meeting, the two heads of state did, in fact, discuss at length Syria and Iran’s role there, but that also, at least for Putin, a deal seems attainable. As such, his remarks seemingly provide at least partial confirmation of a flood of rumors from the Israeli and U.S. press that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have offered a deal to Putin, and that the United States itself expressed interest in it. The purported deal would see Russia restrict Iran’s presence in Syria—or even evict Iran from Syria—to forestall an Israeli-Iranian war that Moscow surely does not want. In return, the other parties would guarantee Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power, and Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia would be reduced, allowing U.S. forces to evacuate Syria, as per President Trump’s stated desire (Haaretz, July 11).
Our failure to prepare for the defeat of ISIL in Syria by building up a better class of rebels (non-jihadi) in Syria, as I wanted to do early on, pretty much rules out overthrowing the Assad regime at this point--unless the situation is radically changed. And I long said the Syrian Kurds will not march on Damascus.
I don't like all the details of that theoretical deal. Although it might not be within American and Russian abilities to pull off--although I do think Assad would eventually like the Iranian forces and proxies out of Syria.
One the outline presented, if we pull out of eastern Syria, do we abandon our local allies to the tender mercies of Assad? Is that how we repay allies for helping us defeat ISIL? Is that how we encourage future allies?
And there is no way we should link Ukraine with Syria. Russia should not get a bonus in holding their ill-gotten gains in Ukraine because of their intervention on behalf of the monster Assad.
If we have a deal with Russia over Syria, we could divide Syria at the DCL (Deconfliction Line), leaving the Syrian Kurds and eastern Arabs de facto independent and able to prevent jihadis from rebuilding a sanctuary or proto-state that could threaten Iraq again; Assad remains in power; Russia keeps their bases in western Syria; Turkey evacuates Syrian territory; and Iran and Hezbollah are kicked out of Syria.
And Israel pledges to leave Syrian territory alone as long as Assad doesn't allow Syrian territory to be used as a staging ground to attack Israel--leaving Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon as legitimate targets for Israel.
This type of deal would be fine for our interests. Not ideal. But certainly adequate.
