France may ship arms to Syria's rebels:
French President Francois Hollande suggested for the first time on Thursday that Paris could arm Syrian rebels in a "controlled framework," given that they were now caught between the Syrian government on one side and radical Islamists on the other.
Noting that Russia was supplying arms to the Syrian government, Hollande, speaking in Mali, said France could provide arms to rebels, "but we will do it in a broader context with a number of countries and in a framework that can be controlled because we cannot accept that weapons could fall into the hands of jihadists that we have fought against here."
Could we take a lesson from the French about nuance and not commit the strategic sin of believing that once talks begin that shooting must halt? Assad doesn't believe that, why should we?
UPDATE: Please recall the truism in rebellions that if the government isn't winning, it is losing. Whether or not this is true, during the Iraq War, I disputed that we were in stalemate (or losing) and so fell under this rule.
But when the Syrian deputy premier says that Assad isn't winning the war, you have to conclude at the very least that Assad isn't winning the war:
Syria's deputy premier, meanwhile, said Damascus believes the conflict has reached a stalemate and would call for a ceasefire if long-delayed peace talks in Geneva were to take place.
"Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side," Qadri Jamil told Britain's Guardian newspaper.
If it really is a stalemate, we have to make sure that Assad's side is the side that breaks first. His security forces are demoralized and shaken by the long struggle and heavy losses. Rebels at least have the option of fading away when the going gets rough and returning when they can. Government forces must man the barricades every day.
Importing thousands of fired-up Shia Foreign Legion gunmen paid by Iran is helping shore up resistance, as are the better trained and equally fanatic imported Hezbollah fighters (from Lebanon), but they can't replace the need for a large decently trained, equipped, and motivated security force.
Assad is not winning this war. Putin and Iran are desperate to get Assad some breathing space to recover from the hammering his military has been taking. Don't give Assad that breathing space.
