All along, I've assumed that African states don't want to legitimize a coup; African states don't want jihadis on the loose; African leaders don't want secession to succeed; France and the West don't want al Qaeda on the loose; and that the coup leaders were sincere in staging a coup in order to fight the northern rebels more resolutely. Let me add explicitly that France wants to retain their leading role in the region.
So these attitudes are a problem notwithstanding the interim Mali government's determination to strike north and defeat the secessionists:
But despite his brave words, there are no immediate signs that Mali's army, weakened by last month's putsch, is readying any significant offensive against the rebels whose ranks were swelled by arms and Tuareg soldiers who had served slain Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
The 15-state ECOWAS grouping of West African countries, which pressured the Bamako coup leaders to give up power, is preparing an intervention force of up to 3,000 troops. But it has said its mandate is to prevent any further rebel advances rather than win back the lost territory.
Former colonial power France has offered logistical support but ruled out sending troops.
So, Mali's army is too weakened by the defeat in the north and the coup to attack. ECOWAS may send 2-3,000 troops that won't attack and even if they wanted to I don't know if the many small units that would make up a 15-nation force could manage to attack. And France says they won't send troops.
Now perhaps I'm making a huge leap of logic, but I'm thinking that if none of the potential forces that could attack north to fight the Tuaregs have the ability or desire to attack north that nobody will attack north.
And that failure to attack north means that an African border will be redrawn by secession; jihadis--including al Qaeda--will be on the loose; and France will lose influence by failing to guide events. The coup was essentially reversed (with the former president losing the tail end of his last term in office), so they've got that.
So somebody has to change their mind. Maybe everyone changes their mind about deciding they can live with all the things they think they can't live with, but I doubt it. I'm guessing the French change their mind about dispatching troops to spearhead an attack. But maybe not until after the election, and while they send arms to the Mali government as if that is the whole plan.
