The South Korean president has vowed that North Korea gets no more "signals" that result in dead South Koreans:
"We do not want a military competition with North Korea. We have to compete over how to make the people live happily," Lee said.
"However, there will be a strong response that does not tolerate any provocation."
Please. The North Koreans care nothing for their people's happiness and are so far behind in that competition that they'd never even think of trading their military competition for a happiness competition. Other than simply ordering their people to be happy, the North Koreans have no idea how to compete that way.
So it will remain a military competition.
I'd expect that South Korea--with a lot of American support--would lead an alpha strike on whatever North Korean units shoot at South Korea or at whatever base launched the units that shoot at South Korea. We've already stated that North Korea got their last free shot.
I expected such an attack after the North Koreans bombarded a South Korean island in November 2010.
An air response puts the fight in the area that our side is most dominant. If North Korea tries to escalate to ground fighting, they risk the complete destruction of their government.
President Obama tried to buy space with North Korea with his aid offer. North Korea spurned that generous offer by trying to launch a long-range missile. I wouldn't be surprised if North Korea's anticipated nuclear test is not the end of the provocations that North Korea plans. Perhaps they believe the upcoming election here means we won't dare respond to a North Korean attack that North Korea may believe is their only way to get aid flowing or allow the South Koreans to respond.
But South Korea will respond in force. Then we find out if the North Koreans believe meekly backing down or escalating is more dangerous to their crumbling state. They're gambling with their mortgage payment on the line, now. I just don't think they know how to do anything else but roll the dice and hope they can recover their losses.
Heck, by this point, North Korea's rulers may only be happy when they gamble.
