North Korea Friday renewed threats to launch a "sacred war" against South Korea, indicating cross-border ties will remain icy despite Pyongyang's surprise nuclear deal with Seoul's close ally Washington.
The North's agreement to freeze some nuclear and missile activities in return for massive US food aid has raised cautious hopes of eased tensions under its new young leader Kim Jong-Un.
First, note that the article says that North Korea has agreed to freeze "some" nuclear and missile work. What they do not pledge to freeze may be more vital to them right now.
But more basically, even a North Korea without nuclear weapons is a grave threat to peace. If North Korea recovers (say if China decides to replace the Soviet subsidies that kept the gulag with a UN seat going), even without nuclear weapons they could rebuild a conventional military capable of invading South Korea. Even now, North Korea could bombard Seoul and inflict many casualties and a lot of damage from their existing positions north of the DMZ.
Whatever else we do about North Korea's nuclear programs, it should not have the effect of saving the existing beastly North Korean regime.
UPDATE: North Korea doesn't actually intend to change their policies:
North Korea's willingness to cut a surprise deal with the United States on the future of its nuclear program does not signal any policy shift by the reclusive state's young new leader, a source with links to both Pyongyang and Beijing said. ...
From Pyongyang's perspective, last week's deal was possible because it believed that the United States was the one that returned to the table willing to make concessions.
But the North Koreans do think this represents a change in our policy:
From Pyongyang's perspective, last week's deal was possible because it believed that the United States was the one that returned to the table willing to make concessions.
I fear they might be right about that.
Strategypage also touches on the tentative agreement:
The North Koreans are unwilling to provide the kind of verification the Americans insist on. Apparently the Americans want North Korea to stop peddling their nuclear weapons secrets to other nations. The North Koreans refuse to do this because they need the foreign currency in order to buy goodies to keep their ruling class happy. ...
Everyone (except North Korea) wants to halt work on miniaturizing North Korean nuclear weapons and making them rugged enough to operate in ballistic missile. This is, in many respects, more difficult that building the first nuclear weapon. Apparently the North Koreans are not cooperating in halting this work. North Korea has made it clear that it will not eliminate their nuclear weapons program, just slow it down in return for some food.
So, North Korea won't halt proliferation of their nuclear technology and North Korea won't stop their nuclear weapons program. Yet we will provide nutrition aid for a year. Which has the advantage of getting North Korea through a famine season with the illusion that everything is fine at home and our president through an election season with the illusion that smart diplomacy has made progress on an Axis of Evil nuclear threat.
I'm willing to make concessions if they are meaningless as far as reviving North Korea and simply give North Korea's rulers hope that they might recover. If they think that way, they won't roll the dice and launch a war they will almost certainly lose (but cause lots of casualties and damage before they lose) while their military continues to rot away and their people continue to think the unthinkable about revolt.
The problem is, it is difficult in the short run to tell the difference between stupidity and nuance, eh? Still, given how bad North Korea is, it seems unlikely even real stupidity on our part could save the regime in Pyongyang. Or I hope so, anyway. We'll see.
