Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Delayed Deterrence?

I'll be honest here, I thought that this kind of reaction would have severely restricted our drone strikes all along:

The Central Intelligence Agency has made a series of secret concessions in its drone campaign after military and diplomatic officials complained large strikes were damaging the fragile U.S. relationship with Pakistan.

The covert drones are credited with killing hundreds of suspected militants, and few U.S. officials have publicly criticized the campaign, or its rapid expansion under President Barack Obama. Behind the scenes, however, many key U.S. military and State Department officials demanded more-selective strikes. That pitted them against CIA brass who want a free hand to pursue suspected militants.

I assumed the late-Bush administration drone campaign was all about providing breathing room during the presidential transition to keep the jihadis back on their heels during what was presumably a time of weakness in our defenses. But instead of dwindling to very occasional strikes on high value targets, the Obama administration expanded them. Until now. Although to be fair, maybe we've gone down the organizational chain so successfully that the targets are no longer worth the diplomatic heat, and we can afford to restrict our targets to the higher ranking jihadis.

Speaking of Pakistan:

Indian, and many Western intelligence analysts, believes that most Pakistani officers are anti-American and favorable to Islamic radicals. This despite the fact that many of these same Islamic radicals are trying to destroy the Pakistani government, along with the armed forces. The evidence for this is obvious for anyone who checks out the Pakistani media, and talks to a few Pakistani officers. ... And they have nukes.

So let me get this straight, Pakistan's military is the major player in Pakistan politics, they hate us with Islamist fury, and they have nukes. Yet they haven't been able to deter us from attacking targets in Pakistan?

Huh. Another deterrence fail by a nuclear power, notwithstanding our recent tightening of the rules.

And consider that we weren't deterred. Even if you mirror image the Iranian thinking process, how can you say we can deter them?

You're welcome. Just one more buzz kill for the nice day you were trying to have.