Moscow said it was looking at sending rapid reaction forces to intervene as it rallied regional support from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a grouping of post-soviet states.
It said that members would send helicopters, trucks and other supplies to the Kyrgyz security forces to strengthen their capacity to handle the unrest. Russia has already sent at least 150 paratroopers to Kyrgyzstan to protect its Kant airbase.
Stratfor puts the crisis in the context of flat Russia looking for defensible borders while aware that the clock is ticking demographically for Russia, no longer able to flood a conquered region with colonists to hold conquered regions, and soon to face the bleak fact that they may have too few people to hold what they already have.
Worse from Moscow's point of view, Uzbekistan would be unhappy with a Russian intervention to establish a defensible border before the alarm goes off. Stratfor's conclusion:
Russia is attempting to finesse a middle ground by talking the Uzbeks down and offering the compromise of non-Russian troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led military organization, as an alternative to Russian forces. This may resolve the immediate crisis, but neither the Uzbeks nor the challenges they pose are going anywhere. And unlike Russia, Uzbekistan boasts very high demographic growth.
The bottom line is this: Despite all of Russia’s recent gains, Moscow’s strategy requires tools that the Russians no longer have. It requires Moscow delving into the subregional politics of places that could well bleed Russia dry — and this is before any power that wishes Russia ill begins exploring what it and the Uzbeks might achieve together.
We shall see if the cover of CSTO approval will blunt Uzbek reaction.
The crisis could also affect our war in Afghanistan since we have a refueling base in Manas--for now.
More broadly, areas like our new NATO members in the Baltic region--Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; Romania; Ukraine; Georgia, and even Poland have to worry whether Russia is looking at or past them at a defensible border (or just space to trade for time), judging whether they can reach that line of defense before Russian power starts to wane.
And we have to wonder whether the Russians think that we are willing to stop them.
