I noted a number of military and security moves I'd make to limit the damage of Russia's marching madness.
Let me just expand on a few of them for how we'd defend the newest NATO members close to Russia--Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
For now, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia are still shielded by Ukraine from direct action by Russia.
I called for moving the equipment for one of our Marine Expeditionary Brigades from Norway to one of the Baltic NATO states. I suggest Riga, Latvia. [UPDATE: Earlier, I'd suggested Estonia. But I think that might be too close to St. Petersburg. No need to make the Russians too nervous.]
I also want a couple American heavy brigade equipment sets in Poland, along with a British brigade set if we can get them to move along.
I also want an Army corps headquarters back in Europe, along with making sure we have 4 combat brigades there, including our Stryker brigade and airborne brigade already committed to Europe. I'd make the two additional brigades a heavy brigade and an airmobile brigade.
Let me add in that 10th Special Forces Group should refocus on Europe and prepare for its Cold War-era mission of being a stay-behind force to conduct direct action in the rear area of a Soviet invasion and rallying locals to resist the Soviets.
These special forces troops would practice working with Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian forces as irregulars fighting in the rear of the Russian advance to keep the Russian invaders off balance before and during the NATO counter-attack.
These forces would help with a mission of holding a bridgehead in Latvia to rally Latvian and Estonian forces that must fall back in the face of a Russian invasion, while American, British, French, German, and Polish ground forces take the lead in counter-attacking into Lithuania to fight the main battle there, then relieve the Riga force, and then counter-attack into Estonia.
Other ground forces from NATO forces would rally in Poland to deter and Russian attempt to move through Belarus to threaten the eastern flank of that counter-attack.
NATO air and naval forces would eliminate Russian fleet units in the Baltic Sea to blockade Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg; and enable sea reinforcement (Dutch, Danish, British, and Norwegian ground forces) and sea supply of the Riga force while isolated. Estonia's islands in the Baltic should also be secured or retaken by marine forces from these countries.
Polish reserves and NATO forces moving east would contain the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
Russia is clearly willing to march into a state that can't defend itself on the pretext of defending ethnic Russians threatened by fascists and rapidly declare the war over--what are you going to do about it?
We need to make sure we have an answer to that taunt. A plan to resist the Russians in the Baltic states and then liberate them from Russian conquest would go a long way to deterring an invasion in the first place.
And we don't have to raise this to a level of a new Cold War--Putin's ideology isn't a global threat. Few campus faculty lounges are filled with Putin sympathizers.
Russia is weak (except for nuclear weapons) but aggressive. We can contain them without elevating their status. Don't stroke their ego by making containing them our main focus.
But recognize that Russia is no friend and no partner. I'm getting tired of waiting for the Russian government to demonstrate sanity by wanting to join the West rather than provoking the West and calling us their enemy over and over.
We should quietly but firmly prepare to defend NATO states from Russia. The Baltic states are the priority, now. As the expression goes: be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill every Russian invader you meet in the Baltic States.
UPDATE: The Poles are asking for American troops in Poland and the new NATO states:
The U.S. should increase its military presence in Poland and in other NATO members in central and eastern Europe in light of the Ukraine crisis, Polish Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said on Saturday.
Siemonisk said the US was open to discussing this.
Nothing says we're serious about defending you as heavy brigade combat team equipment sets. These are obviously not an offensive threat without troops, so objectively less threatening as an offensive option.
