Protesters in Kiev are pulling out of a government building to pave the way for government amnesty:
Scores of Ukrainian anti-government protesters ended a two-month-old occupation of city hall in the capital Kiev on Sunday to meet a government amnesty offer.
Demonstrators had swept into the main municipal building in early December as a popular revolt mushroomed against President Viktor Yanukovich's decision to ditch a trade pact with the European Union in favor of cultivating close economic ties with Russia, Ukraine's former Soviet master.
Under an amnesty arrangement aimed at defusing the crisis, Ukrainian authorities have offered to drop all criminal charges against activists who have been provisionally freed as long as municipal buildings are cleared of protesters and some main roads unblocked by Monday.
Russia has been bullying Ukraine into accepting an orbit around Moscow rather than charting their own course within the West, as (imperfectly, I'll admit) represented by the European Union.
Despite my fears that Russia had locked up a victory over Ukraine, Ukrainians are letting their leaders know that they will not willingly accept the yoke that Putin wants to harness them with for the greater glory of Putin.
The Sochi olympics may actually be keeping Russia quiet for the duration of the pageant, but this "Sitzkrieg" may not last:
Thus the tense standoff in Ukraine — between a corrupt government that has come to embody everything reformers don’t want in their country and a reform movement that has yet to coalesce around a leader or leaders who can articulate a feasible path from the unacceptable present to a better future — seems to be coming to a friction point once again. And while fears that Vladimir Putin would use the Olympics as a blind behind which to “restore order” among his “brothers” in Ukraine have abated, February 23, when the Sochi winter games will end, is another date causing grave concern. Diplomats in Kiev, however, are worried that Yanukovych and his own thugs may resort to violence again before that.
With Ukraine poised on a dagger’s edge, a review of what has happened in the twelve weeks since the Maidan movement first burst onto public attention last November 21, and a sketch of the issues now most urgently in need of resolution in the short term if Ukraine’s European future is to have any prospect of long-term success, is in order.
Read the rest, as the expression goes.
Ukrainians should take heart that they are tougher than Georgia, and Russia had more problems defeating weak Georgia than the Russians would like to admit.
While Russia's economic threats are real, long term integration with the West's economy would counter that threat. The problem is covering the gap, of course, between Russian embargoes and Western opportunities.
Western aid would help. Moving West economically faster would help. Making the move West while Russia is in economic difficulty to make sure Russia has incentive to keep Ukraine trade going would help.
But militarily, Russia has not restored their capabilities despite their greater activity on the foreign scene and despite the tale of resurgent Russia their state propaganda would like you to believe. Russia is not, in fact, "back."
The bad news is that Russia might (as it did with Georgia) find taking part of Ukraine--which is within Russian capabilities--is an acceptable victory.
Another part of the bad news is that Russian demographics might make that lesser objective seem like a means of temporarily reverse bad trends that harm Russian economic performance.
So Ukraine has choices to make about whether they will be free or part of Russia, and whether they must have all of their territory or whether they can live without parts of it, in a worst case.
But first they must have leadership willing to resist Russian threats and move West, where most Ukrainians seem to want to live.
And we have to decide at what point do we help those who escaped the Soviet Union's tender embrace resist Putin's futile drive to restore Russia's glory at the expense of people who felt that yoke for centuries and want no part of that future.
Putin has territorial ambitions. Have no doubt about that. And even though reclaiming the Soviet Union's lost territories (and don't forget that three NATO countries--Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania--were part of the Soviet Union) will not recreate the Evil Empire, an Evil Rumpire will be bad enough.
Putin's objective might be impossible to achieve, but the price Europe could pay before the effort fails could finish off what two world wars started.
