Obviously, Iran doesn't believe us no matter how many times President Obama or one of his underlings says "all options are on the table" in regard to Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions. Iran clearly doesn't believe that we'd use force to stop them. I actually have more doubt that this is true than the Iranians, I think.
And we don't believe the Iranians:
President Hassan Rouhani dismissed on Tuesday a Western assertion that military force could yet solve a decade-old nuclear dispute if negotiations proved fruitless, pledging that Iran would pursue peaceful atomic research "forever". ...Yeah.
Rouhani's comments appeared largely aimed at a domestic audience rather than signaling any shift away from a thawing in Tehran's ties with the West since he was elected president last June on a platform of easing its international isolation.
Even if you want to believe the mythical existence of Iranian "moderates" who are willing to give up Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions if only they can avoid the dread "hardliners," how can we possibly get to an agreement in that environment?
Really, if the hardliners are unwilling to accept talks that we say are designed to halt Iran's nuclear programs, on what basis do you believe Iran could actually come to an agreement on--and carry it out--halting Iran's nuclear programs short of nuclear weapons capability in the face of that hardliner opposition?
But in fact, in Iranian context, hardliners exist in the sense that there are Iranians so committed to nuclear weapons and so convinced that Allah is on their side that they'd rather openly proclaim their goal and to Hell with America, the Great Satan. And moderates are Iranians who want nukes but are willing to act like Iran doesn't want them until Iran gets them.
So we have articles like this which argue that Iranian missile tests and sending ships to the Atlantic are just efforts to quiet the hardliners while the moderates set about giving up Iranian nukes for some reward.
In America it is the reverse. Moderates are willing to accept a real deal if there are ironclad guarantees that Iran abides by an agreement. Our negotiation hardliners are willing to pretend we have an agreement with Iran until evidence that Iran has nukes is too strong to easily ignore.
And then they'll say, "Oops. My bad. Too late." And they'll explain how they learned to stop worrying and love the Iranian bomb.
But I'm sure if Iran actually nukes Israel, it will be portrayed by our negotiation hardliners as an effort to quiet the hardliners, too.
