Thursday, February 27, 2014

The Southern Military District is Already Mobilized

Russia has mobilized forces in the western military district. But because they did not issue a similar order for their southern district which also borders Ukraine and which includes the Black Sea Fleet, you think Ukraine is safe? Think again.

Ah, you say, the southern Russian military district was not put on alert. So that means there is no military threat to Ukraine. This is all psychological pressure:

Still, while the exercises include most units from Russia's Western Military District and some from the Central Military District that spreads across the Urals and part of Siberia, it does not involve troops from the Southern Military District, such as the Black Sea Fleet and areas in southern Russia that neighbor Ukraine.

This seemed to signal that Moscow does not want to go too far. By flexing its military muscles Russia clearly wants to show the West it must seriously consider its interests in Ukraine, while avoiding inflaming tensions further.

Don't be reassured so fast.

You remember that Winter Olympics thing in Sochi that just wrapped up?

Yeah, that's in the southern military district.

So Russia has had that district mobilized for their Ring of Steel protecting the games for quite some time now.

Hey, you remember that, right?

With about 100,000 police, security agents and army troops flooding Sochi, Russia has pledged to ensure "the safest Olympics in history." But terror fears fueled by recent suicide bombings have left athletes, spectators and officials worldwide jittery about potential threats. ...

Air defense missiles, drones, high-speed patrol boats and sophisticated sonars capable of spotting submarines — the array of high-tech gear deployed makes Sochi look like it's preparing for an enemy invasion from both air and sea.

Prepare for an invasion. Prepare to invade. It gets hazy, no?

And the Russians are still fighting in Chechnya and surrounding areas in an ongoing war.

So what would a snap mobilization even mean in that context?

Have a nice, reassured day.