Ukraine is torn between hopes of joining the free and prosperous west and the fear of angering Putin's Russia. Will Ukraine sign agreements at the end of this month in Vilnius that will launch Ukraine west?
With less than two weeks to go, the main potential achievement of that summit -- the signing of an Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU that has been more than five years in the works -- remains very much up in the air.
For months, the government of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych seemed to be building momentum in its European-integration drive. It passed key reform legislation and indicated openness to releasing from prison former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whom the EU views as a victim of selective justice.
But pressure from Moscow -- which wants Kyiv instead to join its customs union -- has grown as the proposed signing become increasingly imminent. Yanukovych has held at least three secretive meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the last two weeks, and in their wake the Ukrainian leader's enthusiasm for Euro-integration seems to be waning.
I would never say it is now or never--"never" is a long time. But if Ukraine doesn't move toward western Europe now, who knows when that chance will resume? Will Ukraine really have a better chance of joining the west if Russian threats to cut heating fuel and limit Ukraine's exports to Russia keep Ukraine in Moscow's orbit where Russia can further entangle Ukraine's economy with Russia's?
Remember, joining NATO is out of the question because of Russia's maneuvering to retain their naval bases in Ukraine. NATO forbids member states from having non-NATO military bases on their territory. So the awful EU is actually Ukraine's best hope of avoiding being embraced by the far worse Russia.
Does Ukraine really want to follow the path of Belarus which increasingly is being integrated into Russia's economy and military planning?
