Sunday, January 12, 2014

[INSERT FISH NAME HERE] War

Britain and Iceland had Cod Wars. Let's see how China's fishing claims in the South China Sea work out.

The Philippines denies China has the right to regulate fishing in the international waters of the South China Sea:

MalacaƱang on Saturday assured protection of local fishermen who will go fishing in the West Philippine Sea amid China's new regulations.

In an interview over dzRB Radyo ng Bayan, deputy presidential spokesperson Abigail Valte said that Filipino fishermen can continue fishing in the country's 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EZZ) as well as on high seas.

"You know, as the DFA (Department of Foreign Affairs) said, you have the right to fish, all states, in the high seas. Kasama po sa atin iyan. No one under customary international law, not a single state can subject the high seas to its sovereignty," she said.

The West Philippine Sea is what Filipinos call their portion of the South China Sea within their exclusive economic zone.

This will get sticky. Expect to see Chinese fishing vessels acting aggressively as a sort of sea-going militia to battle actual Filipino fishermen trying to fish.

Only when (and if) this doesn't work would the Chinese send in coast guard vessels.

So the Philippines has to defend their fishing vessels with coast guard vessels using minimal force designed to avoid loss of life. Do this and China is the one that would have to escalate use of force and for all the world look like the bullies they are trying to be.

That's been my advice all along. The Philippines (and other states) can't defeat China in a major battle over islands--or fishing rights.

The point of resistance is to compel China to have to resort to a fairly major use of force to win a clash. Raise the profile and duration of a clash, and China can lose the propaganda battle by looking like they are beating up on a small power doing nothing violent.

And China risks escalation to war if a clash goes on and the costs mount.

Obviously, Filipino fishing boats and coast guard vessels should broadcast live on video all their encounters with Chinese vessels and ships.

The Philippines can win this type of fight. Iceland--which lacked a military--bested Britain in their mid-1970s Cod War, after all.

Although as formal NATO allies the British had reasons to avoid escalating that China won't have.