Monday, September 09, 2013

Aim Higher

Is a new 45,000-man strike corps in northeast India an answer to China's growing ability to project land power out of Tibet and into China?

This article says yes, in part, and goes on to bring up other factors; but then fails to bring up the major shortcoming of India's armed forces, in my opinion.

A new army unit is only one tool in India’s arsenal. Hence, India should also invest money and resources in other areas.

New Delhi should augment the Indian Navy, since this force is what will help India choke China’s lines of supply passing through the Indian Ocean in case of any eventuality. China depends heavily on these routes for energy imports from the Middle East and raw materials from Africa. The gap between the Indian Navy and the PLA Navy is closing fast, with China deploying its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.

India should pursue other options, [including diplomatic initiatives with Southeast Asian states and Afghanistan to counter China].

An army corps is certainly necessary in the rough terrain that is involved. But while it is surely useful to blunt a Chinese offensive, as the article notes, I don't think land warfare can be decisive across this mutual border.

A strike corps--which I believe means it would be more ready to be used quickly--is useful to settle small border incidents in India's favor before China can grab territory, dig in, await a ponderous Indian mobilization, and appeal to the world for diplomacy while hinting that escalation to nuclear war would be a shame over small bits of land.

Then India would be put in the position of threatening world peace over disputed territory. So the capability to quickly defend, counter-attack, pre-empt, or advance into China to gain territory as a bargaining chip is very useful to keep China from nibbling away at Indian territory over years and decades.

While the diplomatic and naval measures are surely necessary, I find it hard to believe that the author didn't even mention the sad state of India's air force compared to China's growing capabilities.

Indeed, I think air power is India's most pressing need when it comes to China. I think India's fighter competition is the most important defense decision India will make this decade. How is it possible to not even mention air power as an after thought? And you think I'm landpower-centric?

My response to China's growing power would be building up the air force as priority one, expanding naval capabilities, and repositioning army units (with upgrades) from the Pakistan front to the China front. As I noted some time ago, really decisive operations on the land border is nearly impossible:

Shifting ground offensive resources away from Pakistan would be better for restoring Indian control of the northeast should China attack and for having an offensive option versus China's ally Burma.

Money should be redirected toward air power as the priority and to naval forces as the next higher priority.

Air power needs to be able to defeat any Chinese efforts to attack India while giving India the capabilities to attack Chinese air fields and the rail line into Tibet.

Naval power in the short run needs to be able to smash any Chinese effort to operate in the Indian Ocean. They have that now. This gives India the power to interrupt China's sea line of supply to Africa and the Middle East.

In the long run, India needs to be able to project power into the South China Sea to make sure India can pose a threat to interrupt China's trade.

For that, India also needs a diplomatic offensive to gain the friendship of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia,Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Alliance with America, Japan, South Korea, and Australia wouldn't hurt, of course.

India is so superior to Pakistan that India can afford to shift a good chunk of their best army troops to face China rather than building new units.

India's navy is losing ground but India has the advantage of being able to shut down China's sea lines of communication to the Middle East and Africa well to the west of China's ability to project air or naval power.

And India has more diplomatic options with Burma (Myanmar) now than when I wrote that post four years ago, of course.

But in the air, India is outclassed right now and even a spiffy new mountain strike corps will find itself savaged from the air while China's forces move and resupply without worry of major Indian interdiction efforts or ground support.

India needs a far better air force and I'm amazed that this article didn't even mention air power.