Syria is annexed to Iran. … The ruler of Damascus bet his destiny and sold his Arabism for the sake of his existence.
This is what I noted about Syria in my Iraq situation report:
I once thought they could be flipped. No more. They are tied to Iran and have decided this alliance will preserve their regime. Perhaps. Or it will deliver their ruin. Their status is fragile.
And though in theory I have no problem trying to pry Syria from Iran, I think Syria has chosen sides quite clearly. So there isn't much to talk about.
Unless we are getting serious signals that, like the Italians in 1943 regarding the Germans, the Syrians in 2006 want out of Iran's embrace but don't know how to escape.
And one question. Why doesn't anybody call Syria a poodle of Iran? Just wondering.
UPDATE: This says Syria may be more like Italy in 1943 than I suspected:
Recent visits by Syrian President Bashar Assad to U.S.-allied Yemen and the United Arab Emirates are prompting speculation that Syria is seeking to leave the Iranian orbit and pursue closer ties with the West.
Still, it could just be a pretext to try to get the Golan back. And anything Gary Sick is quoted on causes me to be suspicious.
But is this related to this theory?
The Reform Party of Syria, the good guys in that sad corner of the world, reported a few minutes ago that a wave of arrests is going on in the country's major cities. It seems a large number of military officers have been rounded up, along with the usual vivilian suspects. RPS stresses that the targets do not seem to be Islamists (read: Muslim Brotherhood).
Who is Assad rounding up? And why? Would the men rounded up oppose whatever Assad is planning to do? Or is this just the usual goings on in the "stability" of a thug state?
But if we can flip Syria, that is good. But no bribery should be involved. We have the Libyan standard agreement as the template: come over and live. Period.
But whatever is going on, remember that our enemies have vulnerabilities. Too often our people see them as all-powerful monolithic entities against whom resistance is futile.
