Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Buildup in CENTCOM

We might send another carrier battle group to be in position near Iran:

Speaking on condition of anonymity because the idea has not been approved, the official said one proposal is to send a second aircraft carrier to the region amid increasing tensions with Iran, blamed for encouraging sectarian violence in neighboring Iraq as well as allegedly pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

This would certainly be helpful if we fight Iran.

It would also be helpful if we fight al Qaeda in Somalia.

One problem we have in achieving surprise is the near impossibility of moving significant forces without attracting the attention of other countries or the media. So if we can't hide the movement, we have to hide the purpose.

So in theory, ships moving to watch Iran could easily shift to the Horn region to join an Expeditionary Strike Group with an embarked reinforced Marine battalion (a Marine Expeditionary Unit). Special forces, Rangers, and aircraft could move in rather discreetly.

Similarly, units surging into Iraq don't have to be for the purpose of some nebulous mission against Sadr or Sunni terrorists.

I'm not saying that we are planning to hit Iran anytime in the next half-year. But if we want significant land forces to support a revolt against the mullahs, the only way to get them to the region is for the public purpose of fighting in Iraq.

If we were determined to deal with Iran. Which I can't say I'm terribly confident we are planning to do.

Something to think about, anyway.