The Winter War of 2022 Ponders Insurrection

 

Putin insists the war must go on until Ukraine is defeated. He may mobilize civilian reservists to make a bigger effort to finally win. Perhaps the war will go on. But could Putin’s fate be the measure of what the main front in the war is about?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: China's Indirect "Chain of Justice" War to Capture Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: Zumwalt Goes to War

In case you missed it on Substack: Extended Nuclear Deterrence

In case you missed it on Substack: Combined Arms Remains Supreme

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Hiding in Plain Sight

Ukraine has designed aerial suicide drones that mimic flocks of birds to penetrate Russian air defenses. Did I call it, or what?

Well, mimicking birds on radar: 

The latest Ukrainian innovation is mechanical birds capable of destroying ground targets. Ukrainian engineers designed, developed, and fabricated a swarm of biomimetic drones that resemble a flock of migrating birds.

Man, I was all over this method a decade ago when discussing infantry ("slugs") on the future battlefield I described:

Anybody on the battlefield, whether Scouts or Slugs (especially), called being outside of a protected space “on top of the world.” Normally you had to dig underground while unobserved and not move (or emit) a muscle thereafter; move low and slow like random animal life; sit still in the open for no more than 3 minutes; or be encased in heavy armor, active defenses, and stealthiness to avoid being a bright strobing target pip on every Hostile’s screen. [emphasis added]

And here we are in 2026 with weapons mimicking wild life.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Is a Gold-Plated Aerial Drone the Way to Go?

If you send armed drone tiltrotors into battle, aren't armed helicopters controlling them a needless middle man? Heck, isn't the expensive drone tiltrotor an overly expensive means of delivering fire support?

Huh: 

Anduril announced plans to make an autonomous attack tiltrotor that the company hopes the U.S. Army will pair with its helicopters for future missions. 

Nicknamed Thunder, the vertical-takeoff-and-landing rotorcraft is to be autonomous, heavily armed, hybrid-electric powered, and roughly group five-sized. It’s being designed to “be packed into a standard shipping container” for easy transport ...

Company officials say multiple uncrewed tiltrotors could accompany each crewed helicopter on a mission.

Why not cut out the manned helicopter middle man? 

And honestly, do we need the drone tiltrotor for fire support?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Anduril image from the article.

Survive With Dull Routine

Yes, we need active and passive point defense measures to protect our forces from cheap aerial drones. But don't get fixated on meeting new technology with even better technology. Dig in and hide, too. 

Preaching to the TDR choir, he is, about protecting ground forces against aerial drones:

Guns, missiles, electronic warfare, lasers, and interceptor drones matter, but they will not be everywhere, at every echelon, all the time. Passive defense—netting, hardening, overhead cover, concealment, deception, dispersion, and disciplined displacement—has to become normal.

You must deploy passive and active defenses and measures whenever you are in the No-Man's Land and especially when you stop. Or where you can't move at all, of course. Romans dug in every day on the march. That ancient wisdom has not become obsolete because we have new technology.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Image from the article.

Is Secure Projection Our Power Projection Weakness?

Can America secure the lines of communication from bases in the continental United States to the campaign area overseas?

Yes:

China does not need to destroy American combat power to gain an advantage. It simply needs to delay it. Every day that equipment sits in a rail yard, every hour a port is offline, every aircraft waylaid by corrupted logistics data or disrupted communications creates exactly the kind of friction an adversary seeks during the opening days of a conflict.

Power projection is military power multiplied by projection capabilities. 

If China can reduce the second factor, the first factor is reduced where the product is calculated in the theater of war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Air Cavalry or Island Hoppers?

 

I’m skeptical of deep attack helicopter missions behind enemy lines and deep air assault missions, which is part of what the Army wants its new MV-75 to do: 

Air assault raids under hostile fire, forcible entry seizing enemy ground, life saving medical evacuation, island-hopping in the Pacific, logistical support and high-speed force transport .. are just a few of the many operations the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne has planned for its newly arriving MV-75 Cheyenne tiltrotor aircraft.

But I am fully on board the island-hopping in one part of the Pacific. Although this new division's MDTF is seemingly more in need of the M-75 (and something larger, too, for its large truck-fired missiles) for the Taiwan mission, no? 

Or maybe add more compact missile systems to the MDTF. Not every missile needs to move from the Philippines to Taiwan, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the U.S. Army.

The Winter War of 2022 Faces a Performance Review

 

Is Ukraine’s internal drama over military leadership not really about satisfying public dissatisfaction of how the war is going? Despite recent successes, the war nears 4-1/2 years with no end in sight to the sacrifices in lives, resources, and lives derailed to cope with the war. Of course people are getting restless notwithstanding the gratitude for not being conquered by Russia. But what if the public drama obscures the preparations to exploit Ukraine’s recent small but noticeable gains in the ground war that get much less attention than the flashy aerial drone campaigns that could enable expansion of the ground gains in potentially decisive fashion?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to publish this series there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: Two MEFs Abreast

In case you missed it on Substack: What if China Reclaims Its Pacific Coast Territory?

In case you missed it on Substack: The Proto-Asian NATO

In case you missed it on Substack: The Thin Blue and Yellow Line

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Speed is Life

The past masters of armored warfare who once held the land-speed record in the Middle East have waged slow, methodical, firepower based attritional warfare against Hamas and Hezbollah. That doesn't seem ideal to me.

Iran is not stronger as a result, as the author states. But yes, Israel’s careful, slow-paced ground campaigns were a problem: 

This approach has saved many soldiers' lives, but carries with it serious strategic drawbacks. A slower military pace permits the enemy to retreat and maintain itself as a military organization, and extends the length of the conflict. 

A slow, methodical campaign did not save soldiers’ lives. Nor was the slow campaign more compassionate for civilians. Especially not when the enemy deliberately uses human shields.

My view about Hezbollah was that an Israeli ground campaign should have been fast and deep. In the end during the current war, did Israel just screw the pooch at an amazingly fast aerial pace?

Well, Hamas is still in a really bad position. We'll see. And Hezbollah's fate seems up in the air depending on how strong Lebanon is relative to the weakened Hezbollah. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Operation Cobra from a site that doesn't seem to want to load from the search page.

Sustaining a War

America is finally making progress on improving its defense industrial base (DIB) to sustain a prolonged war. 

Good: 

As recent conflicts consume weapons at a ferocious rate, America’s defense industrial base is becoming more prepared to sustain a major war, according to a new report. 

“The trends are moving in the right direction,” Jerry McGinn, who co-authored the study for the Center for Strategic and International Analysis think tank, told Defense News.

It’s only been four years since Russia alerted us to our DIB shortcomings. Yet our success is just a trend and not a final success.

Also, sustaining "a major war" isn't enough. I want the standard to be supplying three major wars so we can help allies without emptying our magazines.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: AP photo from the article.

Modularized Navy Payloads

As the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) gets smaller in the Navy's rear view mirror, the capability that might have salvaged the class finally arrives--containerized payloads.

I always believed that this concept held promise for the failed LCS:

The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Navy are launching a competition to expedite the development of containerized payloads on manned and unmanned surface vessels — for missions as varied as surveillance to electronic attack. ...

“If it fits in a container, I want it and I should be able to fight anywhere in the world with it across many, many platforms. At speed. At scale,” [Chief of Naval Operatoins] Caudle said on April 20 at the Sea Air Space exposition, according to a transcript of his remarks. 

But the containerized systems were not developed in time and under budget. And the LCS ship had too many other problems to be saved by even working containerized systems. 

But now the payloads are coming on line. Too late for LCS, but perhaps in time for small, numerous, networked warships--whether manned or unmanned.

And don't forget modularized auxiliary cruisers.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Great Nicobar Dilemma

If China manages to resolve its Malacca Dilemma for maintaining sea lines of communication through the Indian Ocean, there is another dilemma.

The Malacca Dilemma has a partner: 

India’s Great Nicobar project has been in the news for the last few weeks. The project blends port development, civilian infrastructure, and military strategy. ...

The Strait of Malacca is a lifeline for East Asia’s energy and economic flows. The Chinese strategists have long debated the ‘Malacca Dilemma’. Beijing has made efforts such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) to reduce dependence on the Malacca and access the Indian Ocean via alternative routes. The Great Nicobar project solidifies India’s strategic position near the entrance of the Malacca Strait. 

I’ve noted the importance of this island chain for a long time.

Although China might have a military option that India would be hard pressed to fully cope with. Still, India has a defensive geographic advantage for a full-scale war.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from the article.

Worth the Bones of a Single Chinese Sailor?

China and Japan both claim the same islands in the East China Sea. Japan has the advantage of administering them. But China is persistent.

Throwing elbows near Taiwan: 

China and Japan reported conflicting accounts on Tuesday of a ‌confrontation near the disputed Senkaku Islands ‌involving their coast guards and a Japanese fishing vessel. 

The ​waters around the islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands, are claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo. Both sides have faced off in ‌the waters over ⁠the years, deploying patrol boats and urging the other to leave the ⁠area. 

Which beats trading missiles. What will Japan do if the Chinese land heavily armed "police"?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets a Visit From the Ghost of Battleship Potemkin

 

The war goes on with domestic support for fighting seemingly uncertain in both countries. What happens when sailors decide to save their lives even as the rich save their wealth from Putin’s war? What if that understandable motivation can be elevated by claiming to save Russia from losing their survivable nuclear deterrent?

Head on over to Substack for the essay. I decided to put the essay there. But you can always get the link here on TDR.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

The Weekend Data Dump is a compilation of short entries about the previous week’s defense and national security news that I found interesting. I couldn’t possibly comment on everything in my news flow or delve into everything that interests me. So most news that interests me doesn’t make the cut for a post. The rest go in the data dump. Enjoy!

HOP ON OVER AND READ IT! On the bright side, you can comment on Substack!

In case you missed it on Substack: The Mobile Brigade Combat Team

In case you missed it on Substack: Ukraine's "Assault" Units

In case you missed it on Substack: NATO 3.0

In case you missed it on Substack: Combined Arms Returns to War

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items (or not-so-short) on my Substack "Notes" section.

Phase IX of the Iraq War Rages

Iran's nefarious influence inside Iraq could be weakened and broken if we don't lose focus.

The regional war that Iran proxy Hamas started in 2023 that expanded into the Iran War of 2026 has weakened Iran's influence in Iraq, giving America and Iraq an opportunity to suppress that dangerous influence even more: 

The regional war has presented Iraq’s prime minister, al-Zaidi, with the strongest opportunity yet to reassert state authority over the PMF, an objective that had eluded every prime minister since the founding of the current Shiite-dominated political system in 2003. Unlike his predecessors, al-Zaidi enjoys a rare convergence of interests in which many militia leaders have become invested in Iraq’s political and economic stability, while facing unprecedented pressure from Washington to dismantle Iranian-backed armed groups. His political standing has been strengthened by explicit U.S. backing for his premiership, which was widely understood to be contingent on meaningful progress toward disarming the militias. These favorable conditions have already produced tangible steps toward integrating or demobilizing several major factions, suggesting that Baghdad may finally have an opportunity to weaken one of the principal pillars of Iranian influence in Iraq.

I've droned on quite a bit over the years about what I called Phase IX of the Iraq War that turned to defeating Iran's dangerous influence in Iraq. Lose this phase and prior victories would be undone. Defeating the Popular Mobilization Force militias that Iran sponsored after ISIL rose up inside Iraq has been a key means to weakening Iran. Success will deepen American-Iraqi ties:

Iraq and the U.S. have an opportunity to build a practical partnership centered on economic development, energy security and regional stability.

Although notwithstanding Iran's continued influence, I still consider the Iraq War to have been a fragile if unrecognized success. So far. We must weaken Iran while we can and secure Iraq. ISW has more on this struggle's latest incentive to Iraq to break the militias. Fingers crossed about what the new Iraqi prime minister can achieve after his meetings in Washington, D.C.

Defeating Iran cuts a Gordian Knot that makes many problems easier to resolve.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: The initial link is firewalled. I had access because it arrived by email to interest me in subscribing.

Space Warriors Versus Space Worriers

I think I threw up a little bit in my mouth when I read that Senators are worried Space Force doesn't have enough lawyers. We don't have friggin' space lasers yet. But we're right on that issue of space JAGs.

I find this depressing:

As Space Force leaders push for more orbital warfighting capabilities and even potential moon operations, senators want to make sure they have enough space-focused military lawyers for future conflicts.

How many of our enemies fight us with this kind of legal anvil weighing down their military operations. Sadly, we assume victory and believe the only question is how cleanly we can fight the war. 

We want our troops to fight with honor. But fighting under a microscope is no way to win wars against determined and capable enemies. 

Mind you, for administrative stuff, sure we need military lawyers for this new domain. But when you say they are needed for "future conflicts" my hull breach alarm starts ringing loudly. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Poland Seeks American Support

Poland wants America rather than Europeans as the main pillar of external help to bolster their impressive armament campaign.

Poland wants powerful friends to hold of Russia's imperial ambitions in the west:

Some European states are responding to the Trump administration by seeking “strategic autonomy.” Poland, however, is trying to make itself a more appealing ally to Washington. 

Some European states are trying to stoke a crisis over America for their own European Union imperial ambitions. 

Hell, one European leader in particular wants such a crisis to get the crown. 

I think Polish worries are a byproduct of the self-serving worries of European states less than eager to arm up when America has carried the spending burden for so long. An American armored brigade would settle the Poles down. Which makes sense as the U.S. Army settles on Poland as its center of gravity in Europe.

America wants allies who step up in their own defense. America will help such allies. Poland has done that.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Polish Ministry of National Defence photo.

Follow the Oil

Iran may use their Houthi proxy to interfere with Red Sea traffic, some of which is bypassing Hormuz. Iran has spent a lot of years trying to build a proxy in that region capable of doing this.

Iran looks farther away:

Having choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is now signaling it could play its most dangerous card yet: using Yemen's Houthi allies to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries ‌at risk. 

I quibble with the claim that Iran has choked off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. I say their threat could be defeated but nobody wants to expend the effort to do so, preferring to wait until the crisis ends ... somehow. If oil shortages really hit, the effort would be made. 

But yes, Iran has a Plan B for the Gulf State Plan B of bypassing Hormuz. A capability Iran has long pursued. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo from the article.