The Hubris of the China Dream

China used to try to keep a low profile during its rise in power. Now it goes out of its way to openly push America and anybody else who resists China's rise. Does China think it is more powerful than it is?

China no longer follows the policy of avoiding provoking America into an arms race and political competition:

Chinese rhetoric and policy have a distinctly Cold War feel. Xi argues that the “East is rising” and the West declining; he has called for a “new long march” — an echo of the Communists’ struggle for survival in the 1930s — against a hostile America. Party officials are making military threats against the U.S. and its allies; wolf-warrior diplomats chastise American officials publicly, in tones reminiscent of Cold War rhetorical clashes.

China is racing to become technologically self-sufficient, in anticipation that the world will again be divided; it is putting ships to sea at a rate unheard of anywhere since World War II. Call it what you like, but China is certainly no longer evading the enmity of the U.S.

China is much more powerful than it ever has been since the Century of Humiliation when Western military superiority and Chinese internal weaknesses made China vulnerable to military defeat and diplomatic and economic demands.

But China may grossly over-estimate their relative power:

China is a danger because their chest is swelling over their regained military stature. And while their actual power will help decide the outcome of a war, their beliefs about their power will help decide whether they start a war.

I liken it to new soldiers just out of boot camp. You enter probably out of shape and a pure civilian. You endure and come out part of the mean green fighting machine, with new muscles and the new skills of killing planted in you. You think you are a bad-ass SEAL Team 6-level killing machine in your still-crisp BDUs (or whatever they are called now).

But you are not a killing machine. You aren't even a cog in the killing machine. You are just the first rough stamping of a cog that will eventually be sanded and polished into a part of the killing machine. I remember our drill sergeants telling us that we need to avoid being full of ourselves when we leave basic training and move on to a new base or go back on the block. We are stronger than when we arrived. Do not mistake that for being stronger than other people, they warned. If we do, we'll get our butts kicked.

China has gotten out of world power basic training. Let's hope they don't throw a punch before they realize how much farther that they need to go to be actually powerful.  

Or maybe I should have said I hope they don't throw a punch before they realize it is counter-productive to throw a punch at all. Otherwise, China throwing a punch before they really are ready might be the thing to hope for.

And China has forgotten America's many allies and China's many enemies, which makes the Middle Kingdom the Surrounded Kingdom.

China has made great strides in increasing Chinese prosperity and power within the system America built and defends. Is China willing to throw away that foundation of success?

I sure wouldn't count on the Chinese foreseeing what lies ahead for them.

UPDATE: Some in the upper reaches of the Chinese Communist Party understand they have internal problems more pressing than territorial expansion:

China is seen as a major military and economic threat to the rest of the world, and especially to its neighbors in East Asia. There is another important aspect of this threat that is less visible outside China. While the Chinese government backs the aggressive strategy, the Chinese people are not cooperating. The population is shrinking and the new middle-class of university grads see China as a military threat as anxiously as Chinese neighbors do. These internal problems impose restraints on this new Chinese aggression policy and the ability to use it. 

I'd rather not fight a war with China even if I knew we'd win.

Peak Russia-China Friendship

The Russian-Chinese "alliance" is an alignment of convenience that is running out of reasons to exist. And Russia has alienated their potential allies in the democratic world.

This observation of a rift opening sounds right to me:

Professor Alexander Lukin’s latest article in the Washington Quarterly notes this change. Back in 2018, his book “China and Russia: The New Rapprochement” discussed the promise of Sino-Russian cooperation. In contrast, Lukin now frankly admits that “any possible changes in U.S. policy will probably prove less of a deterrent to further Russian-Chinese rapprochement than will Russian concerns over China’s growing assertiveness.” He argues that “the peak of Russian-Chinese rapprochement has probably passed.” ...

Lukin’s view may represent a certain shift in the thinking of some Russian elites, who cannot voice their concerns publicly due to the necessity of maintaining the superficial harmony of Sino-Russian relations. If Lukin’s critique is correct, beneath the surface, Russian elites are worried about China.

China needed Russian military technology and Russia is running out of things to hand over that China can't do better, as I noted in this post:

China is using Russia. Have the Chinese mastered jet engine production? If so, the Russians need to worry about the day when China no longer needs to strip post-USSR Russia for high tech parts that China can't make for itself.

Although Russia had reasons to give China much of that technology in the past, now the technology can be turned against Russia.

And China has reasons to target Russia for lost territories on a large scale.

And it isn't just the Far East. The former Soviet Central Asia is at risk, too, where China will build a police base "for" Tajikistan. Is Russia's coming split with China being telegraphed in that region?

The bottom line is that Russia has been appeasing China for over twenty years. And Russia can see that Russia may have just 5 more years before it has to face China.

Could Russia possibly align with the West after its decades of threatening the West?

Russia has alienated the West which was not a military threat to Russia by pointless threats to the West given weight by Russian invasions of Georgia and Ukraine, even though the West was willing to help Russia upgrade their defense industry until 2014; while China stole and then surpassed Russian military technology and production methods.

Lukin has it backassward on causation when he argues Russia is unlikely to change policy despite understanding the threats from China:

Nevertheless, as Lukin argued, the pressure that the United States and the West are putting on Russia is far a more powerful policy motivator than China’s growing strength. Thus, in short term, Russia’s foreign policy is unlikely to change.

The West reacted--putting pressure on Russia--because Russia got loudly aggressive. It isn't the reverse. Yet in the east, Russia may find that China no longer cares if Russia accepts vassal status when Russian territory and natural resources seem ripe for domination and then liberation.

Because of their bizarre hostility, Russia may find that it will have to face China alone even though America, Japan, and South Korea have reasons to prefer a weak Russia in charge of the Russian Pacific territory. 

The best case for help from the West may be a non-aggression pact in Europe that makes European Russia a safe rear area to support the distant thinly manned Russian front line in Asia.

But I admit there is a chance there is deep diplomacy going on to bring Russia in from the cold. Hopefully no administration forgets that Russia needs American and NATO friendship far more than the reverse.

Weekend Data Dump

Is Macron a danger to Britain and should Britain hope for "regime change"? Well, Macron isn't the first to ramp up a foreign threat to bolster popularity. And recall that France hopes to control the European Union. Britain has long opposed any single power from controlling Europe. Britain escaped the EU. Now Britain must resist France's efforts to control the EU.

Space Force has a kinetic mission if China goes forward with Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems. But are FOBS really a violation of the 1967 treaty banning nuclear weapons in space? My memory of that era is that absent a full orbit that the weapon isn't really based in space. I could be wrong. Relying on paper defenses in this matter is rather risky, if you ask me, regardless.

Constellation-class frigates will have a multi-role 57mm gun as their cannon armament.

Is Turkey preparing an incursion into Kurdish-controlled Syrian territory? If so, the reaction of the American media will be fascinating to see. When Trump declined to fight NATO ally Turkey over the border region, our media (wrongly) proclaimed he was allowing the destruction of the Kurds. It's a complicated war in Syria where Turkey fights Assad in the northwest and aids Assad in the northeast.

Has Biden harmed European democracy by giving Russia an energy weapon and by failing to side with Greece more completely against Erdogan's Turkey? The pipeline? Sure. But at this point a shot across the bow using Greece if we hope to return Turkey to the fold is better. I'd worry even more about American support for the European Union as a threat to European democracy (see the update).

So who funneled money from overseas to McAuliffe? Is buying politicians really a job Americans won't do? Via Instapundit.

Don't mention the war! In Italy, Biden makes a Mussolini allusion in a positive manner. America is back, baby! Via Instapundit.

Nobody trusts the Taliban not to steal humanitarian aid. If our enemies are so happy we lost that war, I say let our enemies enjoy paying for aid. Lack of aid isn't Afghanistan's main problem, anyway. And with Pakistani frontier tribes losing lucrative American logistics targets, will Pakistan suffer blowback?

A Presbyterian church made a climate change hymn. Please. I was way ahead of the curve. Now go and emit no more. And be grateful I haven't been driven to interpretive dance.

Democrats can make up stuff to attack Republicans but Republicans aren't allowed to attack actual Democratic screw ups.

The discovery of the New World by Columbus saved Western civilization: "No era transformed Western Civilization like the Age of Discovery. Before then, Europe was an economic and military weakling that had suffered centuries of defeat from Islamic empires. ... Europe was the Third World of the late medieval era. Chroniclers saw it as living in a long twilight, far removed from its golden age. It had nothing to look forward to but Judgment Day." Indeed. What will revive the West now?

In the past, that Wuhan virology lab managed to isolate a bat-origin coronavirus able to infect humans. Which isn't proof of the current source of the Xi Jinping Flu, of course. But it at least means the Covid-19 lab theory isn't out of bounds. Although I'm sure its still--somehow--racist. Tip to Instapundit.

From Portlandia to Portlandistan. I say they deserve to get what they voted for. I simply refuse to care more about the city than the residents and officials the voters selected care.

I'm worried that an Army commitment to Microsoft enhanced reality technology will result in forced updates during combat.

No! Way! "The origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 remains unclear, but recent revelations reinforce the likelihood that the true source was a lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)." The fact that the Chinese Communist Party won't cooperate should make it clear that it came from the WIV. Tip to Instapundit.

The upper classes can afford to pay for needless "climate change" expenses that they want to impose on the blue collar and middle classes. If "saving the planet" costs ruin those who can't afford to pay this price in order for the upper classes to feel morally superior, so be it.

Is Chinese diplomacy and increased trade with Colombia something America should worry about?

The Three Seas Initiative to stiff-arm Russia on NATO's eastern front?

China changed their mailed fist in Xinjiang by adding a velvet-like glove to continue the repression and extermination of Uighurs and their culture: "Heavily militarized police patrols and sprawling reeducation facilities may be disappearing. But highly securitized prisons, intensive propaganda and indoctrination, ubiquitous surveillance, population control, and coercive labor assignments are there to stay."

If Democrats want to do this to themselves I'm not going to stand in their way. Let your woke inmates run your own asylum. Enjoy what you vote for. What I care about is nutballs trying that near me. If Michigan gets that way I shall surely move rather than endure that level of murder-suicide pact stupidity. 

Related to the increase of a felony value for theft to $950 in California, the change itself is not unreasonable given that the far lower thresholds around the country were often established more than a century ago. Hell, the change doesn't even cover inflation given I looked at the issue in a past life more than 30 years ago and calculated a number a bit more than the $950. The problem is deciding not to arrest or prosecute people because they "only" committed a misdemeanor. We need to pare down the crimes on the books to elevate public safety priority even when only mass misdemeanor shoplifting is going on.

The Navy figured out that USS Connecticut ran into a (formerly) uncharted seamount in the South China Sea. Good to know for future reference.

Oh really? "Russia will react to other countries' attempts to break "strategic parity," President Vladimir Putin said on Monday, referring to the global missile defence system being deployed by the United States and its allies." Putin can pretend the problem for Russia is America and potential missile defenses, but the real problem is China's dramatic expansion of its nuclear missiles.

Clearly the demand for Youngkin-supporting racists exceeds the supply: "Last night three separate lib journos, employed by NBC, Salon, and WUSA in Washington, DC, all pushed out photos of the same obvious plant at a Youngkin rally [wearing a shiny new Confederate flag patch on the back of his jacket.]" Democrats clearly learned not to show their faces lest they be quickly identified.

McAuliffe was never at war with Eastasia.

If the woke adoption of failed communist ideology and practices means they sabotage themselves, that's great. But if the woke impose it on America for much longer, America is hosed.

A once-proud network became a tattletale "Karen". Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The wrath of God--or so it seemed. That kind of coincidence had to be punishment for something.

First they came for the skinny supermodels. But I did not defend them because I was not a skinny supermodel. Nor did I date them. Or even accidentally catch their eye when they got stranded at the same airport lounge I was in. But I say, when the woke demand you hate the supermodels, be that guy!

I imagine Taiwan is one of many countries gaining the advantage of the Biden administration trying to prove that Afghanistan was a one-off on lack of credibility on defense: "Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the U.S. would ensure Taiwan had the ability to defend itself if attacked."

North Korea tells its subjects to lower their expectations for a few years: "North Korea is reportedly telling its people to consume less food in the next three years amid a shortage it has now deemed an emergency." But don't dare hope the government will lower expectations for resources from the subjects.

It's about time: "The Iraqi government plans to sign energy contracts worth tens of billions of dollars with Saudi Arabia, the state newspaper Al-Sabaah reported on Monday, citing Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar." I've wanted the Saudis to support Iraq to drive out Iranian influence ever since the American-led invasion in 2003.

Setting up small airfields in the Pacific on the fly is a good thing. We want more baskets.

Our counter-jihad command in the Middle East as a broader geographic basis now: "To address evolving regional threats and streamline its command and control of special operations activities in the Middle East, Special Operations Command Central restructured its Special Operations Joint Task Force leading the fight against jihadi groups." Well, it isn't too broad since Afghanistan isn't mentioned. Perhaps the formation of the task force which is pre-Afghanistan skedaddle debacle will be corrected.

Following the "science" into a dystopian Hellscape. Well, that was depressing. But what are the odds that we're still that stupid and willing to submit to authority that has credentials, power, and certainty but no real understanding? Tip to Instapundit.

Huh. Youngkin won in Virginia. I feared the Democrats would find enough votes for McAulliffie. Or that the polls were too hopeful. Hence my meme in the October 30 meme post. But apparently the name "Trump" doesn't inspire the same fear and loathing in voters that it has for the media and their Democratic allies. And just a year after Trump lost in 2020.

 

It's kind of moot, but good for Yahoo: "“In recognition of the increasingly challenging business and legal environment in China, Yahoo’s suite of services will no longer be accessible from mainland China as of November 1,” the statement read." Tip to Instapundit.

This is how the Biden administration can lift sanctions on Iran without lifting sanctions on Iran: "Illicit Iranian oil sales to China have soared in recent months as the Biden administration attempts to reenter the 2015 nuclear accord, raising concerns from Iran experts that the United States is turning a blind eye to sanctions violations in a bid to entice Iran back to the bargaining table." Why Democrats love mullah-run Iran so much is beyond me.

I can only conclude that it is pure spite that Microsoft doesn't tie up my computer with updates while I am sleeping at night.

Perhaps Railroad Force and not Space Force should have been the priority: "The U.S. Army has been preparing for a “near peer” (conventional enemy) war for over a decade now and one problem has gotten worse. For a near peer conflict the army needs rail lines from bases to ports as well as an adequate number of rail cars to carry heavy equipment. Currently about half the army rail lines from bases to the commercial mainlines are unusable because of delayed repairs. A five-year program to remedy this is behind schedule." Oh, and wheeled tank transporters, too. 

Democrats are lying with the definitions section of school curriculum. Sure, "critical race theory" isn't being taught to school children. CRT is a higher level way of analyzing the legal system. But children are being taught the conclusions drawn from CRT: That white people are and always will be racists; and that minorities are perpetual victims who can't succeed or even be expected to succeed. How is CRT itself not racist toward everyone?

Problem: "The Navy's 2021 fleet battle problem and the Army's long-range fires concept are examples of creative military operational concepts that can defeat China. What we could use are several score small, cheap ships armed with weapons to suppress Chinese shore-based firepower so the carriers can deliver a coup de grace." Solution?

In the nick of too late after the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle: "When coupled, as necessary, with selective contractor support, small fleets of Embraer EMB 314 Super Tucanos, or A-29s, can have a disproportionate impact in the fight to secure a nation’s security and domestic tranquility." All the smart people were telling me what a mistake it was to arm Afghanistan with an air force.

The Navy's three Zumwalt destroyers will have their useless guns (because ammo would be too expensive--and the original concept was stupid, anyway) replaced with hypersonic missiles. They're nice test beds with secondary combat capabilities.

Farmer hippies and upscale morally superior organic shopper acolytes hardest hit: "A self-driving farm robot that kills 100,000 weeds an hour ... by laser." But seriously, this is good news. Tip to Instapundit.

This scenario of Russia fomenting AstroTurf unrest in a Baltic NATO country and sending in "peacekeeping" troops to conquer the country is only diabolically clever if NATO goes along with the fiction Russia broadcasts. If NATO mobilizes to counterattack and its stealth fighters start blowing up Russian armored vehicles, the Russian ruse breaks down quickly. We have no obligation to pretend to believe Russia's firehose of falsehoods.

I'm hoping our Marines learned from this: "US Marines were driven into submission by their British counterparts during a training exercise held deep in the California desert last week, according to a report in Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper." And I hope this speaks well of the British ability to call down Zeus' lightning bolts in support of allies. Hmmm. The Marines may have learned don't let the Brits talk to the media first.

WTF? "Officials in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa have called on residents to register their weapons and get ready to protect their neighbourhoods amid fears that rebels could advance on the city." A year ago Ethiopia went in and scattered the local Tigray forces, declaring victory. And now the Tigray regional forces--gathering allies on the way--threaten the capital? I really wonder if Egypt is supporting the Tigray forces to get a better deal on Ethiopia's GERD Nile River dam.

Shut up, they said:

 

More such training for the Taiwanese, please.

I was expecting a package and I heard a muffled thump at my door. Wondering if that was my delivery, for just a fraction of a second I started to check the online status. But then I regained lucidity and walked to the door and opened it. Yes indeed, package delivered. I fear for our species.

What are the Russians doing with their arm deep up Belarus' nether regions? "Poland's foreign ministry said Wednesday that it summoned a Belarusian diplomat over an 'intrusion' into Polish territory of 'uniformed individuals armed with long guns.'"

Egypt begins the move to their new capital city. They can't outrun the government corruption that  hobbles the country.

Inflation isn't as transitory as we'd been assured. Let's go, Brandon. And the Congress he rode in on. Tip to Instapundit.

'Murica.

I suppose it is good news that Minneapolis voters rejected a proposal to get rid of their police department. And this is a nationwide development. But remember that the Democrats managed to surrender to criminals with a police department.

Iran remains the main problem in the way of ending the fighting in Yemen.

I assume America's woke left is taking notes: "Over the past few weeks, the Chinese government has unveiled a series of plans that are seen to further consolidate the CCP’s control over the media. In early October, China’s National Development and Reform Commission released its 'Negative Market Access List (2021 Edition),' which includes a new prohibition on 'illegal news and media-related businesses.'"

Will a German leftist-dominated coalition "maintain NATO commitments?" "The parties pledge to improve the German military’s equipment in the preliminary document, but worryingly, they fail to reiterate Germany’s NATO commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defense. That commitment is critical. Here’s why." Sure, Germany should meet that paper commitment made in 2014. But even Merkel wasn't going to meet the spending commitment in reality! How on Earth do you expect the leftists to do that? By 2024? Good Lord, the Germans say they can't be trusted with an effective military!

Chinese trucks.

How long does this have to go on before its just a gulag? Tip to Instapundit.

Well, yes. I thought that was already baked in to the new Marine organization to directly help the Navy achieve sea control.

So the FBI is in the business of hiding evidence to aid a prosecution? Tar. Feathers. I won't hold my breath for the ACLU to object. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh. For all the Democratic hyperventilating tantrums and accusations over the last year, it turns out Georgia Republicans are really bad at suppressing voter turnout. "Jim Eagle," indeed.

I remember when "soccer moms" were a coveted Democratic Party voting demographic. Now the Democrats say they are "Klan moms".

USS Mount Whitney goes on a listening tour in the Black Sea. Remember, it isn't only a command and control ship--it sucks up electronic emissions quite well. 

Hey, were those Tiki Torch-wielding Democratic Party operatives at the Youngkin rally really volunteers for their reputational suicide mission? Or did they get conscripted into the job? Why hasn't anybody in the media tracked them down to shove a camera and microphone into their face to ask questions? Do they just get to slink away into that darkness--where democracy dies, I'm told--until they do it again somewhere else?

The Danes have detained a Russian "ocean research" ship. Research. Espionage. Whatever. Let's see where the Russians were doing their research, eh? Good on you, Denmark.

Sure, that's good,but Iran's rulers just need to stock up in between generous Democratic administrations: "Iran should consider any nuclear deal inked by the Biden administration as dead on arrival when Republicans retake control of Congress, the party's foreign policy leaders told the Washington Free Beacon." The mullahs don't care if their people suffer if their regime and their nuclear program survive intermittent Republican rule. Tip to Instapundit.

Did Maine just announce a siege of Massachusetts? Via Instapundit.

I do believe I've long mentioned that uniformly defining deaths is key to comparing Xi Jinping responses: "Italy’s Institute of Health now counts only those who died from COVID-19 has having died from COVID-19, reducing COVID-19 deaths in the hard-hit country from over 130,000 to fewer than 4,000." I don't know if Italy's definition is accurate, but it sure shows what a difference the definitions make, eh?

But Belarus totally gets to keep their national postage stamps: "The presidents of Russia and Belarus signed an array of measures Thursday to deepen the integration of the two countries but stop short of a full merger." The dangerous Anschluss continues.

Colluding with the Russians for the 2016 election. Via Instapundit.

The Left looks at the world through Racist-colored glasses. Fortunately, Leftists are wise in the ways of Science! and have a way to tell if you are a Nazi. And honestly, before that Youngkin rally Tiki Torch fraud, that was just a parody rather than a transcript of a Democratic action plan in action.

Mali's corruption, instability, and lack of local priority for dealing with those issues makes taming the jihadi problem there extremely difficult. Perhaps it is time to mark off northern Mali, declare the Lexington Rule in effect there, and just fund local mercenaries willing to hunt jihadia backed by persistent armed drone coverage to kill jihadis. Until the Mali government gets serious about dealing with their own problems or until neighboring states take over part of that marked off territory to govern it.

So these pirates are getting busy again: "France, Britain and Denmark are sending seagoing patrol ships to provide more protection for international shipping operating in the West African Gulf of Guinea, especially near the Niger River Delta. The piracy problem in the in the Gulf of Guinea has been getting worse for several years and, as of September 2021, international ship owners’ associations declared the Gulf or Guinea a HRA (High Risk Area) which covers about 3.2 million square kilometers (910,000 square miles)."

This bears repeating:

The only explanation for the Democrats' unhealthy love of Iran's mullahs is that they love being hurt: "A state-organized rally marking the 42nd anniversary of the takeover of the 'den of espionage,' a turning point in US-Iran relations that set off a decadeslong cycle of escalation between the two sides, took place Nov. 4 in an area outside the former US Embassy premises in Tehran."

Russia has claimed NATO is a threat for so long that NATO is finally reacting to the Russian threats: "Free of long-standing treaty constraints and with a new heavy focus on long-range precision fires, the US Army has officially reactivated its European Theater Fires Command as the service prepares to introduce new far-reaching fires capabilities." Bravo, Putin. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings.

Oh Holy Hell. Scratch Connecticut, one of the three best subs we have, that are focused on intelligence and special forces. Is my hope that our submarine service would be a pillar to hold the line until our surface fleet can get its act together just whistling past the graveyard?

ICBM silo construction in north-central China.  Wow. A far cry from the aerial imagery with fuzzy smudges from the Cuban Missile Crisis. It is interesting that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal with land-based ICBMs, the most vulnerable of the peacetime deterrent. It speaks of China's inability to perfect SSBNs and their failure (so far) to turn the South China Sea into a SSBN bastion for a more secure sea-based nuclear deterrent. The Chinese also probably--rightly--don't worry that America would launch a counter-force strike on the ICBMs. And perhaps the Russians can't reliably carry out one. Heck, maybe the Chinese think the Russians love them. Well, no. Are the ICBMs the interim force until China perfects and protects SSBNs? Or [checking pucker factor], does China see these as a first strike weapon?

Remember when Putin hid the fact that Russia invaded Crimea in 2014? No more: "Speaking in Sevastopol, home to the Russian Black Sea fleet, Putin said the city and Crimea 'are now forever with Russia'." Well, the Russians quietly admitted that long ago.

Dead voters in Michigan? It's a Festivus Miracle!

Perhaps liberals should focus more on virus control than gun control. Via Instapundit.

The Left believes you must be crazy to be even slightly to the right of a woke Leftist. In unrelated news, I want every woke petition signer from our law schools to be in an online database. Because I don't want such an easily rattled attorned arguing my case. Via Instapundit.

The 2021 Department of Defense annual report on Chinese military power is out.

Huh: "The Democrats made up the entire Trump Russia hoax with the help of their friends at the FBI, CIA, Obama White House, Hillary Clinton campaign and … Russia."

What is the fucking point of the German outreach?! "Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi on Friday said Japan will step up military cooperation with Germany in the Indo-Pacific region as he welcomed a port call by the first German warship to visit Japan in about 20 years." Maybe the Germans could focus on controlling the Goddamn Baltic Sea so the Russians can't fight for control. Maybe that's more important? The Germans don't do enough on defense and what little they do is wasted on frivolous gestures.

That's a war-fighting force as a warning to Russia: "The Army’s new V Corps, responsible for overseeing units operating up and down NATO’s eastern flank in Europe, was declared 'fully operationally capable' Wednesday during a ceremony at its main headquarters at Fort Knox, Ky."

I really don't think it is a smart idea to reward Pakistan for engineering a Taliban victory by helping Pakistan manage the blowback of the jihadi Taliban winning in Afghanistan. We should demand concessions from Pakistan to launch strikes against jihadis in Afghanistan--which are futile from over-the-horizon, anyway. Let the dog that caught the car figure out what to do with it. And let the Chinese pay for their new ally's problems.

The Germans will participate in a major exercise for aerial reinforcements arriving in Germany to defend Europe: "Dubbed Gerhartz’s 'brainchild' by Loh, Air Defender 2023 will consist of a two-week exercise based in the European theater. The German air force wants to use all available national military airfields in the exercise, to exercise its role as a 'strategic hub for collective defense,' Gerhartz said. Some partner-nations’ airspaces and airfields will also be used." It would be nice if the Germans contributed more to NATO defense than its airfields, but I'm desperate for something good to say about Germany on defense issues these days. So, bravo!

Would Prince Harry please take his wife home to avoid damaging the special relationship between America and Britain? Tip to Instapundit.

Vaccine mandates are killing New York City fire protection: "Most alarming was an internal document indicating that on Nov. 3, there were only 55 percent of firetrucks available. The normal number, according to him, should be about 90 percent." Let's hope terrorists don't decide now is the time to strike in order to maximize casualties.

Sadly correct.I've also read that a study shows Democrats went way more left than Republicans went right.

They're always in the last place you look: "Democratic New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney, who is projected to lose his bid for reelection against a little-known truck driver, is talking about "recently found" ballots to support his refusal to concede the race." Tip to Instapundit.

Lock a lot of people up: "Special counsel John Durham’s indictment of Igor Danchenko, the principal source for the bogus Steele dossier used by the FBI as a basis for the Trump-Russia investigation, further illustrates that Durham has his sights set on the Clinton campaign. ... The dossier was generated by the Clinton campaign." Justice, however delayed it has been, must not be denied if we are to avoid banana republic status. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine does a better job of designing tanks than the Russians. But Ukraine puts less capable tanks into the field for the Donbas fighting. Clearly, Ukraine doesn't fear a Russian full-scale invasion. Also, I was way off speculating that Turkey might send their new tank design to Ukraine. I guess I was misled about Ukraine capabilities by the tanks they do build. Note that America buys Ukrainian tanks to examine them and China did the same thing because Russia wouldn't sell them the latest Russian technology. For some reason.

This article answers a question of mine. I'd read that NATO won't admit new members with territorial disputes with other countries. Which is a bit odd when you consider Greece and Turkey. But never mind. I could not find that in NATO's charter. But this is the answer: "According to the Study on NATO Enlargement, candidates interested in joining the alliance must resolve all international and territorial disputes prior to membership." I guess, the older disputes were grandfathered in.

Okay, this was a serious LOL moment:

Can Ethiopia survive? "Abiy’s fundamental challenge is that the centrifugal forces in Ethiopia have grown stronger than the centripetal ones. In addition to Tigray, a number of other long-running insurgencies and cycles of interethnic violence have persisted and, in some cases, intensified." Well, Ethiopia is a small empire holding a lot of different ethnic groups together. The article doesn't suggest major Egyptian support for Tigray forces. Is Egypt just lucky in its Nile River GERD dispute with Ethiopia?

There is no way that masks are 80% effective in the real world, as the CDC director stated. And I'm pro-mask. I had a supply of N95s before the Xi Jinping Flu erupted. But effectiveness depends on mask type, threat level, time in the threat environment, and user skill. I'm not sure what a single measure of effectiveness even means given the variety of circumstances. A mask worn properly for a quick trip into stores will help. But I doubt wearing a mask every day in a Covid-19 ward will protect you in the long run. Of course, I'm basically done wearing masks given my vaccination status.

The Army has a new tank round that replaces four other ammunition types--but the APFSDS needed to kill the best enemy tanks is not one of the replaced rounds.

Understandable: "Ukraine and Romania want Western allies to step up their military presence in the Black Sea as they accuse Russia of militarizing the region, according to letters obtained by Defense News." If we can give the Russian fleet the Black Sea Turkey Shoot treatment but without distracting from the more vulnerable Baltic front, I'm good with that.

I've long said Russia's "hybrid warfare" is simply Russia denying it has invaded a country while the West goes along with that fiction. The habit lingers on: "The conversation comes as tension between Moscow and the West sunk to post-Cold War lows after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, its support for a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine and other irritants." No mention that a Russian invasion captured Crimea prior to annexation. No acknowledgement that the "separatists" are a Russian AstroTurf force subordinate to Russia and reliant on Russian support and combat forces to be where they are now. Just ... stop.

I guess the Biden administration isn't going to punish the Saudis too much: "'The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles and related equipment for an estimated cost of $650 million,' the State Department said in a statement Thursday."

Democratic Party operatives with bylines. They wonder why so many Americans don't trust them but do despise them. Let them learn to code.

After the bloodbath of the Syrian multi-war, the Arab cannon fodder is getting tired of dying for Iran: "Iran is trying to organize a Shia militia in Syria like Hezbollah in Lebanon. The recruiting effort is disappointing because few Syrian Shia want to have anything to do with Syrian Hezbollah, Iran or serving in any military force. The Syrian Shia have been fighting for a decade and have made it clear that they want no more of it for a while, perhaps a long while. Meanwhile the original Hezbollah in Lebanon finds itself with less local support and growing threats of another civil war if Hezbollah does not disband and abandon efforts to intimidate and control the national government."

United States Space Force was certainly thrust into a hornet's nest. 

Huh. I'm going to guess that zero dollars in the so-called infrastructure bill that Congress just passed will go to hardening our electrical generation and transmission network. Which has long been a weakness. 

Somebody using drones tried to assassinate the Iraqi prime minister: "Troops deployed around Baghdad on Sunday following the failed assassination attempt with armed drones that targeted the residence of Iraq’s prime minister." More than 40 years ago the Baathist dictatorship in Iraq wouldn't let their bomber pilots practice ground attack to prevent this. Now anybody can make their own air force. In this case the usual Iranian proxy suspects, most likely. The war in Iraq goes on. Iran is the main enemy now.

Somebody needs to get that "doctor" of education out of the ER, stat: "B.C. doctor clinically diagnoses patient as suffering from 'climate change'[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

Let's go, Brandon: "Joe Biden is weighing shutting down another oil pipeline, which would all but guarantee further increased fuel prices in the affected region." The affected region includes Michigan and Ontario. Canadians may be saying "Let's go, Brandon" just as enthusiastically. Tip to Instapundit. 

Republicans are feeling good about November 2022 elections. But that's a year away. Just 10 months ago the images of the Capitol Building riot filled me with dread for 2022. But I quickly realized it was less than the horrible images suggested at the time. And voters apparently shrug when Democrats shriek it was an insurrection. Well, no. It was a shout of frustration and a brief riot. No firearms. No plan for seizing power. So things change. And who knows what will change by 2022? And if you say Biden's inept administration is the difference between January 2021 and November 2021, Biden could easily by gone by next year.

Feeling threatened, thousands rally for the Ethiopian government in the face of a Tigray-led offensive. But huh? "Some demonstrators denounced the United States ..." What the Hell did we do wrong? Look at your own government, eh?

The Marines want a model of long-service veterans and older recruits instead of high turnover recruitment. That will certainly increase competence and ability to operate with initiative in small groups. But don't expect that Marine Corps to replace losses. The Army is on its own and will no longer have the Marines as the most significant expeditionary ground force to fight at its side, as it has been since the Korean War.

Curiouser and curiouser.

And Now For Something Completely Different

Meme with me if you want to live.

 

 

Say Their Name

If the Russian government won't worry about China, we should remind the Russians of why they should worry every chance we get.

When you're right, you're right!

China's and Russia's rivalries with the US and its partners have helped foster cooperation, but they have their own historical disputes, which, along with China's ascendancy, should worry Moscow, according to Burns, who was senior director for Russia on the National Security Council in the 1990s.

"My numbers may be a little bit off, but I think there are 6 or 7 million Russians living east of the Ural Mountains in that vast expanse, and there are 300 or 400 million Chinese living below them," Burns told lawmakers on Wednesday. "The Russians are going to have to worry, long-term, about economic domination of Russia by China."

"The Russians ought to be worried about a Chinese nuclear-weapons buildup in the western part of China, about the hypersonic missile test" earlier this year, "and the fact that China is completely unconstrained," Burns added.

About those "historical disputes," that would be huge swathes of the Russian Far East conquered from China. That is the most glaring example of the "century of humiliation" still haunting the Chinese Communist Party. 

Do the Russians really think they are too special to be prominent in China's pantheon of predators from the Century of Humiliation? 

China is using Russia. Have the Chinese mastered jet engine production? If so, the Russians need to worry about the day when China no longer needs to strip post-USSR Russia for high tech parts that China can't make for itself.

That day might be less than five years away.

The Moslem States Looming Over the Arab Middle East

Arab states in the Middle East can't be sleeping as well at night as they look around and see rival Moslem powers ringing the Middle East vying for the loyalties of Arab Moslems.

 

Turkey is one non-Arab power.

No doubt that Turkey is the strongest single power in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Even Israel can't match Turkey's ability to sustain a long war. But what of it? Turkey can't isolate any of its potential targets. Greece is in NATO. And Egypt has powerful Arab allies like Saudi Arabia. 

Is Turkey going to throw its weight around so much that NATO ejects Turkey? NATO has a Plan B if Turkey goes Full Erdogan. And then Turkey would have to face its historic enemy Russia alone in Syria and the Black Sea.

Is Turkey going to go to war against the Arab world? Maybe Turkey uses its power to expand influence in Africa--where it is the dominant power in Somalia (good luck with that)--and leaves the Middle East alone. Turkey is not unopposed. Maybe if Turkey was less aggressive, opposition couldn't form so easily. 

Also, has Turkey's air force recovered from the purges? 

Turkey is rising in power but it has historic enemies and former colonial subjects around it, and has alienated NATO and Israel.

Pakistan is another non-Arab Moslem power. It has nukes and troubles.

Yeah, this will work out well for Pakistan: 

Pakistan continues to deny that it had anything to do with the August Taliban victory in Afghanistan and the formation of the IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan). ... Unofficially, Pakistan let it be known since 2002 that if Taliban regained control of Afghanistan, they would do as they were told by their Pakistani patrons. That is not happening and Pakistani military commanders are unsure how to handle this and are openly feuding with each other and the Pakistani government about how to fix the very real mess they have unofficially created.

Good luck with that. Say, here's some blowback: 

Thousands of supporters of a banned radical Islamist party Saturday departed the eastern Pakistan city of Lahore, clashing for a second straight day with police who lobbed tear gas into the crowd, a party spokesman and witnesses said.

Four dead so far.

Pakistan with its nukes was once a source of support for Saudi Arabia. It is the only Moslem state with nukes. Yet Pakistan has alienated America and the West with its nukes and persistent support for jihadis. And despite Chinese interest in Pakistan, India looms over Pakistan. While Pakistan may be too troubled to be a threat to Arab states it is also not in the position to be much of a supporter.

And we have Iran, which has been a power to be reckoned with in the region for a long time and which actively courts Shia Arabs to bolster its attacks on the Saudis as the keepers of Mecca and Medina in the name of the Moslem world. 

Oddly, a number of Westerners love Iran and are downright eager to get out of the way of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. For example, this fantasy about a nuclear-armed Iran is simply too good to be true:

Critics of the theocracy in Tehran tend to cast that outcome as a nightmare scenario. In fact, going nuclear could lead to the undoing of the Islamic Republic. Getting the bomb would likely backfire on the regime, in part by sparking a much-needed reset of U.S. policy that would allow Washington to finally focus on the Islamist state itself and not just its nuclear apparatus. A nuclear arsenal would not offer the regime the security it so desperately craves; to the contrary, soon after testing a nuclear weapon, the theocracy would find itself more vulnerable than ever.

Articles like that are an excuse to let Iran go nuclear. The magical global consensus to oppose the nuclear-armed mullah regime will never be formed and never be effective when our enemies prop up Iran and weaker powers succumb to Iranian nuclear-backed pressure. 

Foreign Affairs rarely informs on international affairs as much as it reflects what the elites believe. I remember being terribly disappointed decades ago when I discovered how banal its articles are. At least I have a bunch of their coffee cups for my lesson.  

But I digress.

Add in Iranian efforts in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and elsewhere to use Arabs as cannon fodder to achieve Iranian objectives and you have yet another "alien" threat.

And add in America's retreat from the Middle East punctuated by the sudden and needless defeat in Afghanistan and you have a situation where Arab states in the heart of the Moslem world are almost under siege with outside help less assured.

Is Saudi Arabia working the problem? What's with the local efforts to heal the intra-Sunni rift in the Middle East? Is this about Shia Iran? Is Erdogan abandoning neo-Ottoman ambitions or just trying to soften the image of that drive by a non-Arab power to reclaim influence in Arab countries? 

From the Arab point of view it might take one non-Arab power off the siege lines that has enough problems and opportunities elsewhere to keep Turkey busy. 

Pakistan is at least farther away and the least of the problems.

As for Iran? Well, a Turkey eased out of the threat column automatically becomes a source of anti-Iran power to push Iranian power and influence out of Arab states. And perhaps Turkey eases its opposition to Israel, which is a growing source of power to resist Iran and prevent it from going nuclear.

The Israelis are not (mostly) Arab but the Jews are at least fellow Semites. And Israel is not a threat to the loyalties of Arab Moslems. The logic of dealing with the siege should mean more Arab states expand the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel.

Unless the Arab states want to simply live under the domination of Turks, Persians, and Pakistanis, the Arab Middle East needs to conduct a lot of diplomacy to break the siege. 

I hope it works because the alternative is the proliferation of nuclear weapons to deter the looming threats. Good luck hoping MAD--as dangerous as it is--can be a source of uneasy stability in that patchwork of hostilities and religious passions.

Taliban Paradise Lost

The Taliban had enough fighters to defeat the demoralized Afghan security forces. Do the Taliban have enough loyal fighters to hold Afghanistan?

 

I think there were just 70,000 Taliban for the offensive that took Kabul. Are there more in victory or fewer in disillusionment available to hold and pacify the population?

The veteran Taliban fighter once strove for martyrdom on the Afghan battlefield of what he considered an Islamic revolution.

But the Taliban insurgency’s lightning victory in August has yet to bring a long-promised paradise, says Rahmatullah. Instead, he fears, it’s revealing internal divisions, even resentment.

“We struggled and fought in extreme poverty. Now our leaders are ruling and have luxury cars and lots of facilities, but the majority of mujahideen don’t have salaries and their families are worse off,” says the fighter, who uses one name.

“Some of the lower echelons of the mujahideen are now wondering, ‘What was the benefit of our struggle, and why did we fight?’”

Our once-allies who lost to the Taliban are likely still organizing. It takes time to regroup and learn to fight like insurgents instead of as armies and police. 

Normally you impose sanctions or blockades on enemies to put them into the mess the Taliban are in already. Can we restrain impulses to send money to the Taliban, which will be used to pay off their fighters to keep them happy?

We can absolutely circle back and resume the fight after we get our people stranded in Afghanistan out.

The Original Victims Studies Major

Russia believes it has the right and need to reconquer Ukraine eventually. Their sense of victimhood is astounding.

That's the only way to explain Putin's extraordinary statement:

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the Western-backed military development of Ukraine posed a serious threat to Russia, two days after the U.S. defense secretary staged a show of support for Kyiv and encouraged its aspiration to join NATO.

Putin told a group of journalists and Russia experts that Tuesday's visit to Ukraine by Lloyd Austin, in which he said no third country had the right to veto its hoped-for NATO membership, had effectively paved the way for Kyiv to join. [emphasis added]

Well. I guess Russia might not have a persistent sense of victimhood. But the only other explanation is that Russia is so weak that Putin fears the Ukrainian hordes will march to the gates of Moscow and crush Holy Mother Russia.

But Putin doesn't fear a Ukrainian invasion. He can accept only enemies or vassals on Russia's border.

NATO is not fooled by Russia's ridiculous proclamation of victim status:

NATO defence ministers have agreed upon a new master plan to defend against any potential Russian attack on multiple fronts, reaffirming the alliance’s core goal of deterring Moscow despite a growing focus on China.

The confidential strategy aims to prepare for any simultaneous attack in the Baltic and Black Sea regions that could include nuclear weapons, hacking of computer networks and assaults from space.

Remember, no amount of buffer territory is enough to ease Russian paranoia and aggression.

UPDATE: It would sure be nice if the Russians stopped being aggressive bastards:

New commercial satellite photos taken on Monday confirm recent reports that Russia is once again massing troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine after a major buildup this spring.  

I hope we can see the logistics behind this to know whether or not this is aggressive bluster or aggressive preparations for military action.

More here but nothing to answer my question.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

The War in Iraq continues

Is Iraq on a good path through a real battle against Iranian influence and corruption?

Iraq has some good trends going for it:

Deaths from Islamic terrorism or political violence continue at historically low levels. That is another change most Iraqis agree on and support. ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and pro-Iran radicals are encountering more resistance and less popular support than in the past. Now pro-Iran groups are sliding into the same status. The many Sunni factions are once again more united than in the past and willing to deal with Kurds or the Sadr coalition to improve the economic and political situation in Iraq. The Sunni coalition is also useful for reassuring the Sunni Arab oil states that investing in Iraq is the wise thing to do. After all, Iran is broke, and 80 percent of Iraqis are Arabs, and the Kurdish minorities in both are not friends of the Turks or Iranians. 

It is good that both Sunni jihadis and now pro-Iran Shias are losing support. The war goes in in this newest phase of the Iraq War.

Well, those are good trends if Moqtada al Sadr isn't the threat to Iraqi rule of law and democracy that I fear he is:

Iraq's parliamentary election went smoothly. But I worry a lot about this development: "Although it is too early to know the exact numbers of seats for each party, it is very clear that Muqtada al-Sadr has made a remarkable victory with almost 80 seats." I worry that the three-time insurrectionist will wreck Iraqi rule of law and progress. I've long said we'll rue the day we didn't kill that man.

I hope optimism is justified and that Sadr has had a change of heart rather than just trying a different approach. Is getting votes just his new strategy for absolute power in Iraq after three insurrections failed?