A Real Lesson in Getting Distracted

Much is being made about Iran soaking up too much of our resources. This has long been an issue. And we have coped in the past. It is obviously not ideal. But that's reality. Russia really provides a lesson in focusing on one threat while other objectives deteriorate.

A global power must balance its military power globally to deal with many active and potential threats. Even a regional power has that problem: 

This happens fairly regularly. Washington dealt with it in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but perhaps a more instructive example of the dangers of sustained high-intensity warfare is Russia. The expectation of a short campaign in Ukraine became a prolonged drain on troops, munitions, industry and political attention. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh [from Armenia], fundamentally altering the balance of power in its near-abroad, while the fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakened Russia’s position in the Middle East. The war in Ukraine did not cause either setback, but Russia’s prolonged concentration there appears to have reduced Moscow’s ability to prevent them. 

Russia has not coped despite a much more massive ammunition supply and weapons reserves. And Russia's Far East remains at risk. But hey, it will all be worth it once Putin defeats Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself in Ukraine. 

America has coped in the past and is coping now. Again, not ideal. But we are hardly helpless. And we will always have to make tradeoffs. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Will Canada Defend its North?

While Canada has fixated on demonizing America over trade issues, Russia looms over Canada's ill-defended Arctic border.

Sure, Lake Ontario America was humorous. But the Canadians have lost their minds. This is not a good time to joke around. We need to speak softly and refrain from making sudden moves. But this is an excellent point about Canada facing an actual threat:

In Canada, with the second-longest Arctic coastline, the “Our North, Strong and Free” declaration has to be underpinned by effective policy. 

I've long wanted Canada to bolster its Arctic defenses:

Canada has my enduring thanks for fighting and dying at our side in Afghanistan. It was a rare NATO ally who did that even under Article V. So if Canada revives defense spending primarily to safeguard the northern Pacific and Atlantic as well as the Arctic? Great!  

It seems that Canada is theoretically in agreement, We could complement that effort by establishing POLARCOM. 

Maybe we could motivate the Canadians by sailing an Amphibious Readiness Group around Hudson America Bay.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Map from here.

Sure, Blame America for European Defense Deficiencies

Europeans slashed their heavy ground force weapons because they believed Europe was a zone of peace after the Cold War and not because they were prioritizing expeditionary warfare. Also, the Europeans' checks were in the mail and the sun was in their eyes.

I'm calling BS on this: 

NATO allies over two decades reshaped their ground forces in the image of a U.S. Army focused on operations in the Middle East, a decision that explains the loss of combat power in Europe, according to new research. 

Europe’s insufficient arsenal of tanks and heavy artillery is often blamed on tight defense budgets, but a new U.S. Army War College paper argues that the bigger culprit was spending choices centered on lighter expeditionary forces built for Afghanistan.

It sounds like a convenient excuse for Europeans to blame America for Europe's own priorities, as if those countries lack agency. 

It is insane to believe Europeans couldn't send the small contingents they did deploy without getting rid of too many of their tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery back in Europe. Reshaping their ground forces in the Army's image would have allowed that. American troops didn't bring tanks to Afghanistan but retained them in our force structure, just in case.

Europe's lack of tanks--and lack of troops who fight with or without tanks--is on the Europeans.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Hearts, Minds, and Dangling Balls in Urban Warfare

While many urban warfare tactics are universal, you need to fight differently when trying to take an enemy city than you would when trying to rescue/separate a city's population from enemy insurgents. 

American urban warfare experience from the Iraq War counter-insurgency campaign is not fully relevant when dealing with an enemy-held urban area, such as ISIL-controlled Mosul. Gaza went beyond even that:

Gaza differed from this experience in several fundamental respects, as Israel did not fight alongside a host nation, but rather against it. In Mosul, there was a legitimate Iraqi government, which at least part of the population supported, and the Islamic State ruled the territory for only two years. Hamas, by contrast, functioned not as an insurgent movement but as the sole authority of the Gaza Strip for almost two decades. Through its control of political institutions, welfare systems, education, and ideological indoctrination, it transformed both society and terrain into a prepared urban battlespace. Polling data from Gaza and the West Bank, including PCPSR surveys from December 2023, show overwhelming public support for Hamas’ October 7 attack and its earlier attacks on Israeli civilians, even when support for Hamas as a governing movement fluctuated.

Under these conditions, Israel could not plausibly expect to win over the local population. Organized anti-Hamas militias and protests against Hamas’ rule emerged only after its military capabilities had been severely degraded late in the war, and even then remained limited. For most of the conflict, the key structural conditions that underpin the Iraq and Afghanistan paradigms — friendly local government and a persuadable population — simply did not exist.

I touched on this difference over a decade ago:

Winning hearts and minds isn't some wimpy alternative to fighting insurgents. It is how you fight an insurgency when the objective is the people themselves. You want their hearts. You can settle for their minds. And when you are pacifying an enemy population, you need to grab the insurgents by the balls so the people's hearts and minds will follow.

And capturing an enemy city defended by that enemy's regular forces is even more dangerous. Doctrine for one situation is not a template for all situations. 

And yeah, don't get me started on the misinterpretation of "proportionality" of the use of force around civilians that just happens to only hamstring Western armies. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: Photo of American artillery in Aachen during World War II.

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Iran War of 2026 Seeks a Victory Condition

In case you missed it on Substack: Surprise On the Modern Battlefield

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2026 National Defense Strategy Report

In case you missed it on Substack: Russia is a Liability as China's Wartime Ally

The Taliban in Afghanistan have severe problems. Five years after we decided to lose the war, the Taliban’s continuing weakness demonstrates that we screwed the pooch in a winnable war.

So no need for Tomahawk? “France is building long range drones for Ukraine. Details were not revealed, but the same French firm produced an AAROK long-distance drone with a 22 meter wingspan carrying a payload of about three tons.”

Not as prepared as we thought: “Trump administration officials conceded during a private briefing on Capitol Hill this week that Iran’s Shahed-136 drone is proving more disruptive on the battlefield than the Pentagon had anticipated[.]” Sh*t happens.

The Shield of the Americas is intended as a multilateral body for unified action against drugs and foreign threats to security in the Western Hemisphere—the foundation of American global power.

Nimitz heads to sea to train prior to one last mission before decommissioning.

Testing a Minuteman III ICBM with MIRVs.

Switzerland is looking at a European system to supplement their Patriot system, whose missiles are in high demand right now. And fewer F-35s because of costs.

Britain is allowing America to use British bases to support “defensive operations” in the air campaign against Iran.

Two unnamed Gulf countries are upset that America didn’t warn them about the coming war. Really? The build up should have been a clue. And to be fair, the warning would have made it to Tehran. Also, nukes?

Iran’s continued strikes on Gulf countries is renewing calls for cheaper air defenses in the region. Sure, make that a priority before prestige high-tech stuff that isn’t being used, eh?

The joint American-British “Project Flytrap” for multi-echelon offensive counter-drone capabilities.

Mixing quality and quantity of munitions for the Pacific theater.

North Korea tested a long-range cruise missile (with nuclear implications) from its new destroyer.

An Iranian strategist with ties to the mullah regime says Iran has no intention to accept a ceasefire. I’m sure Iran didn’t expect to have to endure more than a brief, limited assault. Maybe they are right that they can outlast us. But they also may not have a choice but to try.

The search for Syria’s post-Assad future. I don’t know what it is. But I’m pretty sure we can’t tame the Islamists.

I reject the idea that Trump’s preferred military strategy is a totally new way to use our military power. It is basically an aerial version of old-fashioned punitive naval expeditions or mobile ground raids into enemy territory to inflict pain. They reduce costs—but have limits, too.

Sounds good: “France is working with partner countries to facilitate increased shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz once the most intense phase of hostilities is over[.]”

I’m assuming an American destroyer is the system: “A ballistic missile launched from Iran was neutralized by NATO defence systems while entering Turkish airspace, Turkey’s Defence Ministry said on Monday.”

The U.S. is unhappy with the scale of Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil supplies. I guess this shows we haven’t decided to punish the mullahs over the hope of overthrowing them.

F**k. A Navy missile seems to have hit that Iranian school rather than an Iranian air defense missile falling back to Earth. Iran didn’t use them as human shields; we didn’t deliberately try to kill children; and this is heartbreaking. Although the evidence as described seems weak.

In regard to escorting civilian shipping through the Persian Gulf, it would help to have Navy in a Box.

The X-76 to reduce reliance on vulnerable airfields. But can dispersing maintenance, rearming, and other logistics match that ability?

American B-1 bombers arrived in Britain to conduct “defensive” missions in the war on Iran from a British base.

Ukraine is “fielding thousands of [UGVs], which perform logistics, engineering, and infantry support tasks. Some even drive explosives into Russian positions as kamikaze robots.” This is important. But I have developed strong doubts about direct-fire combat UGVs.

Is Epic Fury doomed? Bold stand claiming to know what the objective will turn out to be.

Note this is done without the public angst in Europe on the same issue: “The U.S. Defense Department and its Indo-Pacific partners are undertaking several initiatives to ensure the region has a strong industrial base ready to respond to warfighter needs[.]”

Mexico recoils from fighting drug cartels, saying America must contain “the voracious American appetite for illicit drugs, and … illegal arms trafficking.” Decades ago Mexico’s government said the same thing and enjoyed drug money fueling their economy. Now it fears the cartels.

Canadian provinces are getting restive after “Trudeau’s lost decade featured not only stagnant growth but also flatlining living standards and soaring housing prices.” And don’t forget tighter federal control.

Okay, but America has never had the raw military power to deter all enemies. And enemies may not judge our strength by raw military power. Jihadis calculate with different variables. Still, a good reminder that diplomacy is a tool to support national interests.

The limits of machine guns: “Ukraine is producing interceptor drones to destroy Russian Geran attack drones flying high enough to avoid Ukrainian truck-mounted heavy machine-guns that destroy low-flying Shahed 136 drones.”

True: “Verified combat results that demonstrate Operation Epic Fury has achieved U.S. military and political objectives will determine the length of war, not a calendar with an arbitrary deadline.” The objective is as yet unclear. Which is fine and not a scandal, as we match ends to means.

Russia is building up forces in Kaliningrad and the Baltic region. Kaliningrad is both a threat and opportunity in NATO’s main front in the Baltic region.

The intelligence leak is shameful—and criminal?—and harms our maximalist goal—but not necessary goal.

Calling the war on Iran a “little excursion” is wrong—even if an attempt to calm markets is understandable—when we ask military personnel to risk their lives. But don’t pretend this is new. Remember “time-limited, scope limited military action”?

Sh*t got real: “Finland’s government has proposed scrapping a Cold War-era blanket ban on nuclear weapons on its territory[.]”

Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific: “The U.S. military said it killed six men Sunday in a strike on an alleged drug-smuggling vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean[.]”

About 75% of Americans oppose sending ground troops into Iran. That’s reasonable. Iran is too large and mountainous. Yet I no more want to rule out Army operations there than I do in INDOPACOM against China. Never let an enemy rule out a threat.

Never mind earlier reports that Nimitz has been recalled for one last mission in CENTCOM. She is sailing around South America on her way to her final home port, and is “not certified for national tasking.” My friends and I geeked out about her when she joined the fleet.

A snapshot of where the Navy’s CSGs and ARGs are underway.

Rather than “use them or lose them” as fast as possible, Iran seems to be trying to keep their missile threat intact. This sort of reminds me of Saddam’s attempts to preserve his air force by burying planes in the desert and by flying planes into Iran for the duration of the war (but Iran kept them).

Capturing, securing, and evacuating Iran’s enriched uranium would require a large ground force and not just special forces. I did not think it was a reasonable mission at this point.

Israel and America are striking pro-Iran militias in Iraq; so far those militias are fairly quiet. I’m not hearing complaints from the Iraqi government about the strikes.

War: “The United States military announced Tuesday that its forces had struck and destroyed 16 of Iran’s minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Army is getting a new hand grenade. No explicit mention of whether it is for left- and right-handers. That was an issue for me in Basic Training. Also, the picture disturbs me. I was taught all fingers go on the safety lever.

The Navy began an Arctic exercise that included a nuclear attack sub breaking through the ice.

Army HIMARS have apparently been firing anti-ship weapons at Iranian warships.

Will all Air National Guard units that are losing F-16s to retirement get replacement aircraft?

Learning how to operate artillery in the Arctic under drone threats. Drones need to adapt to operate there, too.

Hmm: “After the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began, the Chinese air force stopped flying around Taiwan—and the reason isn’t at all clear.” If China ends up capturing Pratas Island after what turns out to be a maintenance stand-down, don’t be shocked.

My thoughts on our “failure” to learn from Ukraine’s drone defense experience before taking on Iran.

There is some truth to this observation about sustaining medium-sized wars, but let’s not get misty eyed over the unity of global war against peer enemies. And we do have an option of converting the current medium war against Iran into a limited war.

I’d say refraining from declaring mission accomplished in Venezuela is from the “Well, Duh” files, but winning the first battle is absolutely not winning the war.

Britain needs an army but it probably won’t get it. My dream of the British Army of the Vistula dies.

The French elites spent so much time telling people that their worries and problems were “fascist” that more people became willing to endure that slur to have their worries and problems addressed.

Too many are taking counsel of their fears over dealing with the severe Iranian mullah threat rather than focusing on causing fear in the ranks of the mullahs. What is “reckless” is letting the mullahs get nukes.

The way the EU and Britain have rewarded Gazans for their rape, murder, and kidnapping invasion of Israel, I’d have thought they’d reward West Bank Israeli settlers with their own state, too.

Iran hit several cargo ships near Iran.

Well, yes: “Israeli officials in closed discussions have acknowledged there is no certainty the war against Iran will lead to a collapse of its clerical government[.]” From the start I judged overthrowing and pummeling Iran’s government are parallel objectives.

The U.S. may need to shift air defense units in South Korea to CENTCOM. Since the Cold War, reliance on the Air Force for air supremacy led the Army to get rid of a lot of air defense assets. That must change.

Tragically, an American missile may have hit that Iranian school based on bad intelligence. Damn. On the other hand, how many more school children will be at risk if Iran gets nukes? Or at risk just from terrorism if the regime continues?

Western Hemisphere security: “Ecuador will launch a major offensive against criminal organizations in three western provinces this weekend with logistical support from the United States[.]”

Australia will deploy an E-7 aircraft to CENTCOM and replenish the UAE’s supply of AIM-120 air-to-air missiles.

The crew of a Chinese helicopter behaved like total a-holes too near an Australian helicopter over the Yellow Sea.

Huh: “U.S. Marines and soldiers rehearsed inserting mobile missile launchers capable of long-range precision strike and anti-shipping missions across the Hawaiian Islands last month ahead of Western Pacific deployments.” My speculation.

American troops in the field can find and strike targets much faster than bureaucrats back home can develop and field new weapons. That has always been the case, but I get the point.

Virginia boats have become the backbone of America’s submarine fleet. And collectively they will replace our four SSGNs and their Tomahawk arsenals.

“Alaska will kill you.” Indeed. How about POLARCOM?

Israel hit an Iranian nuclear facility.

Iran demands reparations to end war. A bold strategy Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.

China is mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Indonesia has blue water naval ambitions.

The dangers of a weak Iran? LOL. I’ll take my chances with that outcome given the problems with a confident and well-armed mullah-run Iran. Add in nukes …

Yeah, the West fought Islamist “over there” for nearly two decades, only to welcome Islamists "over here" (and subsidize them).

Cuba says it wants to talk to America. Thug states always want to talk to save themselves. Too often, we fall for it.

Every time I see a Tai Chi commercial on YouTube I want to throw a brick through the screen.

Strategic warfare: “Ukrainian forces conducted a Storm Shadow cruise missile strike against a critical Russian microchip manufacturing plant in Bryansk City on March 10.”

An American refueling aircraft crashed inside Iraq, apparently after a refueling mishap with another plane. The other plane safely landed. All six KC-135 crew died in the crash. F**k.

In the Red Sea, Ford “experienced a non-combat fire Thursday that was successfully doused, the U.S. Navy announced.” Damage control is vital.

While this could be seen as a failure to anticipate, it may have been a matter of not wanting to telegraph the start of the war: “The U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but it will happen.” We’ll see if it includes Marines (or Army airmobile troops).

I don’t understand the professed confusion about America’s war objective against Iran. It has been clear to me from day one. But it is unclear which objective will be achieved.

Hmm: “Israel renewed its strikes on Beirut on Thursday, as it threatened to expand operations and seize territory in Lebanon if Hezbollah did not stop its attacks.” I’ve been skeptical that long-term success is possible without a ground effort.

This deal would be a form of an American security guarantee: “Ukraine is awaiting White House approval for a major drone production agreement proposed by Kyiv last year[.]” I imagine we have a greater sense of urgency now.

Romania granted America permission to use bases there for operations against Iran. Also, ahem.

Meanwhile in SOUTHCOM.

LOL. As if.

If Iran was pummeling America as hard as America (and Israel) is pummeling Iran, you’d laugh at anyone claiming time is on America’s side.

The Navy has revived its interest in railguns. Good.

Why in the world would we use SEAL Team 6 to capture Iran’s Kharg Island oil export facility when we can shut it down with air strikes, rockets, or sea mines—or seizing any tanker that departs there with a full load?

The American shift from expensive long-range missiles to much cheaper and more plentiful short-rang precision bombs after knocking down Iran’s air defense door demonstrates one way to cut the exquisite weapon Gordian Knot dilemma.

If you think Iran can endure being pummeled by America as long as they have to, explain why you think a nuclear-armed, mullah-run Iran could be deterred from using nukes against even another nuclear power.

Europeans can’t consider Iran somebody else’s war? Of course they can. All they have to do is firmly believe someone else will be the nuclear weapons target and someone else will then deal with Iran.

America needs resilience in the vast supply chain of raw materials and critical components that build and sustain our war machine.

I recall we sent elements of our OPFOR to Iraq for a similar purpose: “Russia recently sent five of its military instructors to Ukraine for three months to gather information and gain experience in the latest combat methods.”

Make it so: “While the United States Navy has long used modular construction techniques for its submarines, it now wants to expand this to include construction of its new class of FF(X) Frigates.” We need that technique.

The European Union plans to destroy democracy in order to save it. Well of course it does. “Democracy Shield”, indeed. Shielding the EU from democracy, eh?

Yes: “Ten days ago, the Trump administration decided to win a 47-year-long war waged by Ayatollah Iran against America and -- at various times -- two dozen other nations.” I don’t know if we get final victory in this campaign. But I’m reasonably sure we’d lose without it.

If China invades Taiwan’s Pratas Island, expect it to be surrounded by a Chinese fishing fleet militia. Hell, could PLA troops PVA concerned individuals on the fishing vessels simply take the weakly held island? But I imagine the CCP would want their modern military filmed in victory.

I’ve argued the War on Terror now requires quieter but persistent mowing the grass overseas. Bizarrely, we brought the war on Islamist terror here. Tip to Instapundit.

People not familiar with the military manufactured a steak and lobster scandal where none exists: “Our relationship and understanding of our military and military families is broken.” To our troops, enjoy the steak and lobster. You earn it every day. Tip to Instapundit.

I heard that China sold Iran advanced anti-ship missiles and that our Navy shot down all of them. Huzzah! But I’m not finding the purported Reuters story. I found a February story about talks to sell them. But nothing about actual sale and use. Filed as low-confidence RUMINT for now.

So … they’re doing what Trump wants: “Canada to Expand Military Presence in Arctic, Following Trump Threats[.]” Mission accomplished!

The U.S. temporarily eased oil sanctions on Russia to ease price pressures from the Iran War of 2026. This buys time for Russia’s economy.

It amuses me that some say the war against Iran is really about China. As if Iran isn’t bad enough now and wouldn’t be a catastrophe with nukes. Also, effects aren’t neatly siloed.

Iran: “The US-Israeli combined force continued to target Iranian internal security infrastructure on March 13 in order to degrade the regime’s repressive capabilities.” Netanyahu said they are setting “optimal conditions” for regime overthrow. Which fits with my initial view.

It’s fascinating that some claimed the 2014 Russian invasion of the Donbas that continued for years was a brilliant “frozen conflict”; but when the campaign against Iran nears two weeks The Atlantic can speak of U.S. problems “the longer the Iran war drags on.” Via Instaundit.

CENTCOM hit 90+ military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. As a reinforced Marine battalion on USS Tripoli heads for CENTCOM, Trump says we could destroy the island’s oil facilities. Will we take it (without damage??) to coerce Iran into letting oil traffic sail? My view.

A capability useful in the western Pacific: “US forces used ATACMS to sink Iranian warships during Operation Epic Fury, the top US general said.”

An argument for regime change? “the Strait of Hormuz will re-open only with the consent of the Iranian government. No amount of U.S. naval power can either force passage or safeguard transit.” But the claim is wrong. Depending on the price we and allies are willing to pay.

You can market it as a disguised retreat: ““This is a good time to declare victory and get out,” David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto tsar, said on the All-In podcast he co-hosts.” But that has always been a real victory option depending on facts on the ground.

An unhealthy obsession by “Not-Americans” up north led their commander to sacrifice the fingers and toes of their troops, proving that Canadian troops are not immune to Arctic conditions. What part of “the Arctic wants to kill you and break your stuff” is unclear? Via Instapundit.

Beginning of the end or end of the beginning for Cuba’s commies? Or the pause that refreshes them, I suppose. Tip to Instapundit.

America helps Ukrainian troops own the night (and fog).

Meanwhile on the Subcontinent (and adjacent Afghanistan).

CRS report to Congress on Epic Fury. Good but brief background information.

Trump on the war with Iran: ““Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, in the first hour it was over, but we won.” I suspect this is letting Israel know the clock is ticking on their regime-change plan.

As I said: The false choice between defeating Iran and deterring China. Via Instapundit.

Huh: “Protesters took to the streets in a violent night of unrest in Cuba as demonstrators chanted ‘Down with Communism’ and attacked Communist party offices[.]” Via Instapundit.

Ukraine’s suicide drone with AI target identification and terminal guidance. This was predictable.

Xi seems serious: “Xi seems unwilling to halt the purges at the cost of military effectiveness. These are Xi’s priorities and after things settle down, planning to take Taiwan can proceed again.” Hopefully the purges are just spitting in the ocean.

Pressure: “A Swedish court on Sunday ordered the detention of the Russian captain of a ship that was suspected to be sailing under a false flag in the Baltic Sea[.]”

Iran continues to bombard Israel.

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: A Land Mission in the Persian Gulf

In case you missed it on Substack: Europe is a Crucial Staging Area

In case you missed it on Substack: Blood, Mud, and New Technology

In case you missed it on Substack: Strengthening Both Pillars of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance

The shockingly bloody 1859 Battle of Solferino led to the Red Cross and “the Geneva Convention of 1864, the first international treaty to establish legal protections for wounded soldiers and medical personnel.” Sadly, proliferating NGOs have become the logistics arm of war factions.

This last week Team USA defeated the Canadian men’s and women’s hockey teams to win gold medals; and Canada discovered its per capita GDP is less than Alabama’s, our poorest state. I think we can kiss that F-35 sale to Canada goodbye. You’re welcome, Sweden.

Securing the Western Hemisphere: “A major Mexican resort town was under siege on Sunday as drug cartels lashed out after the leader of the brutal Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed in a military raid, authorities said.” Alert “Blackjack” Pershing.

The Axis of El Vil crumbles: “Cuban security advisers and doctors have been leaving Venezuela as Interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government faces intense pressure from Washington[.]”

Russia provided Venezuela a lot of weapons. It would be hilarious if one form of American aid was sending S-300 SAMs and “dozens of Su-30 jet fighters, hundreds of armored vehicles including T-90 tanks and scores of artillery systems, mainly multiple rocket launchers” to Ukraine.

American relations with African states wouldn’t suffer from “history” so much if we didn’t fixate on our slavery—that we ended at high human cost—to the exclusion of African slaves sent to the Islamic world in larger numbers (with no surviving ancestors) and the Africans who sold the slaves.

This ignores a great difference: “Trump’s performance on the other current challenge by a major U.S. adversary–Russia’s invasion of Ukraine–does not provide comfort to the government and people of Taiwan.” Taiwan is our main defense line. Ukraine is well forward of our main line of resistance.

The Mexican-American War. My view is that is was impressive militarily; in line with contemporary norms that Mexico shared; and that Mexico’s inherited and largely sparsely populated imperial territory inherited from Spanish imperialism denies them sainthood.

An American-Israeli strike on Iran must include targeting defensive and offensive missiles. The other targets will tell us if we are trying to destroy or weaken the mullah-run government. Will we emphasize Iranian internal security assets or hit economic and power projection targets?

Will Trump choose a deal with Xi that sacrifices Taiwan? Trump’s ambivalence about defending Taiwan is part of a long line of ambiguity—America doesn’t want to give Taiwan the power to provoke China and drag America into a war.

More on the cartel-related violence in Mexico.

This is true: “The A-10 Thunderbolt II (‘Warthog’) Isn’t Just an Airplane — It’s a Promise Kept to Ground Troops”. It was always about trust and not the plane, which in fairness is very old. I’d settle for F-35 dedicated close air support squadrons.

Russian aircraft nose around former Russian territory: “Five Russian aircraft were intercepted by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) while flying near the Alaskan coast Thursday.”

Amidst trans-Atlantic kerfuffles, that’s boring (other than to the sailor): “Denmark’s military said its arctic command forces evacuated a crew member of a U.S. submarine off the coast of Greenland for urgent medical treatment.”

Will Russia pay for North Korean military help by sharing nuclear weapons technology? Maybe. But it is something China should worry about, too.

Let’s end that talk about America siding with Russia, okay? “A new Army National Guard unit took over the training of Ukrainian forces in Bavaria this week[.]”

Drug boat goes boom.

It’s a dangerous region: “A major war is imminent in East Africa.” I’ve been worried.

Sure, side with the communist tyranny: “Canada announced Monday that it is working on an aid package for Cuba as it faces blackouts and severe fuel shortages worsened by a U.S oil embargo.”

American special forces are training for Arctic warfare. Good.

I thought this was old news: “Russia's SVR foreign intelligence agency has taken over mercenary group Wagner's influence operations in Africa[.]”

Coincidence? “Iran was rocked by fresh protests across its universities over the weekend as fears rise of US military intervention against the Tehran regime.”

If the CCP implements policies to encourage it, will the people trust the CCP enough to spend rainy day savings? “As China’s rate of economic growth slows, the country’s leaders have become increasingly concerned that the economy remains overly dependent on investment- and export-driven growth.”

Sh*t got real: “U.S. State Department on Monday ordered all non-emergency personnel and their families to evacuate from the American Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon.” Tip to Instapundit.

Expanding the fleet better not require increasing personnel: “The American navy, like most other navies, is suffering from a shortage of new personnel, causing a problem with providing ships with enough sailors.”

Russia is touchy about their Barents Sea SSBN bastion. Indeed. Tip to OPFOR Journal.

How can the Navy bolster sailor retention by shortening their second cruise when first-cruise sailors are part of the crew?

The Coast Guard is mostly coping with the Homeland Security funding cutoff from the political funding battle.

2027: “The Air Force and Northrop Grumman have struck a $4.5 billion deal to speed up production of B-21 bombers by 25 percent.”

C-130 variant: “The Pentagon has secured $194 million to build the first of a fleet of new ski planes that will support troops flying over the Arctic and Antarctic.”

America and Japan exercised to set up outposts on Japan’s Ryukyu Islands prior to any war. A2/AD isn’t a monopoly of China’s.

South Korea complained to America about the recent U.S.-China aerial standoff over the Yellow Sea?

Delivering blood with drones [video].

Canada and Denmark both use MQ-9B drones, which may provide a basis for cooperation in Arctic ISR.

The Army wants its 600-mile range Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) anti-ship variant faster. Also, moving ground targets.

Designed to thwart submarines, “the ADC MK6 generates acoustic signatures that confuse and divert incoming torpedoes, adding a critical layer of undersea protection.” Is there a weakness to exploit?

Is a Compact of Free Association between America and an independent Greenland really superior to just working with NATO ally Denmark and its Greenland possession to define increased American usage of the island?

As the crisis over Iran’s mullah regime grows, “nobody cares about the EU. Because it has simply become insignificant.” That’s good for America—and for Europeans who value freedom. European countries should want to be significant actors.

Is Peru on track to align with America and reject China?

Is optimism over Lebanon disarming the Hezbollah state-within-a-state justified?

Can Mexico treat the disease rather than the symptoms? “The Mexican state will continue to offer up big-name cartel figures ad infinitum, but their elimination alone changes little. What would be transformative is bringing to account the politicians who enable, protect and promote cartels.”

Congress recommends policies to end the persecution of Christians in Nigeria. The broader problem is—as a kindergarten teacher might say—that Islam doesn’t play well with other children.

Does “Europe” want to be Western? Well, "Western civilization” predates the spread of democracy and freedom. But if you mean a free West, “Europe” as defined as the EU absolutely does not. But many Europeans who the EU fanboys fear and despise do.

Smuggling Starlink terminals into Iran had something to do with this: “Students at Iran's Sharif University of Technology launched a new wave of anti-regime protests over the weekend, calling for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and clashing with government security forces[.]”

Via Instapundit, some random guy inadvertently took control of 7,000 Chinese-made robot vacuum cleaners. Suddenly my F-35 pucker factor skyrockets. I know ALIS was replaced. But the plane is very networked.

If we don’t deal with Iran now, the next time will be harder: “Iran is close to a deal with China ‌to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles[.]”

The Ukrainians and Russians are exploiting UGVs for logistics and rescue missions. That does seem promising. But I am not impressed with UGVs as a replacement for armored combat vehicles.

Ukraine has become a “steel porcupine.” Sorry, that’s not nearly good enough.

Docking? Why? “The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is set to dock in Haifa as part of US reinforcements in the Middle East, amid rising tensions with Iran.” I wondered if Ford was bringing something vital. Is it delivering something?

Soviet UFO fans inadvertently alerted America to Soviet attempts to bypass American missile radars by sending nukes over the South Pole.

Sure: “Russia is betting on its submarines and experimental nuclear weapons to make up for the smaller military force that it fields compared to NATO, a top Norwegian military official told Business Insider.” Sea nukes defended by subs. It’s Russia’s only hope.

Survival of the fittest Ukrainian brigades in combat. Help from family and friends is interesting, as I addressed in this post about digital camp followers.

“Battleships” and ship class evolution.

What’s going on in France? Tip to Instapundit.

Fascinating that Russia’s KIA seems to be about four to eight times greater than Ukraine’s. Ukraine eventually explicitly organized its defenses to kill Russian troops as the priority over holding (or liberating) territory.

Also—and you don’t see me slapping my forehead—Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza that sidelines the United Nations has the feature of escaping a Chinese or Russian (of French?) Security Council veto. Well played, sir.

Did the Pentagon warn Trump that military action against Iran will make the U.S. military’s magazines too empty to fight China? If I may be so bold, if that warning was given, it is also true that America doesn’t have enough to fight China even if we don’t attack Iran.

In space, nobody can hear you experiment: “China's reusable space plane is circling Earth once again.”

Simply surviving in the Arctic is a skill to learn even before you test your skills and equipment in EOD in that environment.

A pilot in an experimental aircraft turned over control to an AI to evade a simulated missile attack. And AI for the F-35. Is the future going to be C/Fe rather than C or Fe?

I can see low-threat fronts being held by 12 troops on a 5-10 km. front, but I suspect the infantry shortage is real but exaggerated by the examples given. I’ve also read that on Ukraine’s 1200 km. front they have built 2200 platoon strongpoints to hold the line.

Rising sun: “Japan plans to deploy upgraded air defense missiles on its westernmost island — within sight of Taiwan — by 2031[.]”

Israel decided not to let their officers’ cars spy on them for China.

South Korea’s bunker-busting precision ballistic missile will have to do for coping with North Korea. Until South Korea puts nuclear warheads on them.

The Marines are buying a mobile light mortar system. I had to find an article about the Army looking at it to see it is an 81mm weapon. Before (and after) small drones, mortars allowed infantry to reach out and touch someone.

There’s some validity to this: “From China’s perspective, sustained Iran-U.S. tension – short of full-scale war – can be strategically advantageous.” But don’t let it stray into Looking for Mister Good War paralysis in the face of a massive threat.

The importance of Taiwan’s integrated air defense system.

Excellent overview of trade policy and tariffs for national security purposes since 1945. No less true even if Congress must put that presidential weapon on a broader legislative foundation.

Threat: “Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces units held an exercise on February 24 at the Madinah ol Munawarah Operational Base near the Strait of Hormuz[.]” Shield?

Toss in the fact that the mullahs have been waging war on us for nearly fifty years and this sums it up: “In his speech, Trump pointed to Tehran's support for militant groups, its killing of protesters and the country's missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.”

The threats of Russia, China, and jihadis couldn’t get Canadians to enlist or spend more on defense. But the threat of Trump did the trick? Whatever. LOL.

Egad. If NASA can’t restore its culture of innovation that works that led to landing on the Moon, perhaps it should just be the minor league team for the private space companies. Tip to Instapundit.

Self-criticism is good. Self-hate is not: “Sracic said that the West has been engaged in years of self-criticism. ‘Instead of focusing on our achievements, we have been obsessed with our sins,’ he noted. ‘This has undermined our confidence and our unity.’” Tip to Instapundit.

Not sure what happened, but if American civilians in a boat decided to shoot it out with a Cuban patrol boat a mile from Cuba’s coast, that was fatally stupid. But we’ll see.

I reject the military punishing Senator Kelly as a retired officer still subject to the UCMJ for his “unlawful orders” video. But the video was hyper-partisan. To avoid conflict of duties, retired officers serving in Congress or other partisan national office should resign their commission and forfeit their pension.

Troops of the Army’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division (armored) practice to integrate small FPV drones into armored combat.

Friends in need recognized our help: “Six pilots and crew from a New York National Guard helicopter unit made a pair of flights into an active firefight in 2023 to rescue a team of French special forces soldiers who had been ambushed by Islamic State fighters.”

The HAVOC conventional hypersonic missile can be launched from ground, air, sea, and space launchers. The story implies the military will get this. Also, thus far China and Russia work on nuclear hypersonics while Congress bars such work here—for now.

A CRS report to Congress on Yemen and Red Sea security.

Sh*t got real: “Several countries have begun withdrawing dependents of diplomatic personnel and non-essential staff from some locations in the Middle East, or advising citizens to avoid travel to Iran[.]”

A reminder that defeating an enemy in the Arctic first requires our troops to defeat the Arctic itself long enough to fight the enemy.

I resent the claim that America redefined its alliances by requiring allies to do enough for their defense to earn our help. One, it is practical. A weak ally may not survive long enough for us to help it. And two, haven’t weak allies already redefined the alliance into one where we fight and they don’t?

The U.S. deployed F-16s and a Burke-class destroyer to Diego Garcia. Just in case the Iranians have long-range suicide drones. I assume the F-16s have counter-drone rocket pods. I think an A-Whacks plane would be better.

Is using a UAV to spoof other aircraft a Chinese test to disguise drones during an attack on Taiwan? Maybe. But if Taiwan sees hundreds (or thousands) of innocent airliners heading to Taiwan, they’ll suspect something is off.

Is war going to return to Ethiopia’s Tigray province?

Is China’s future a nightmare and not a dream? “Behind the Chinese illusion of strength lies a Soviet-style system sustained by subsidy, suppression, and the ongoing exhaustion of its own foundations[.]” The essay says China is following the USSR’s economic development path. Could be right.

We assume Xi’s military purges are about corruption: “In China, corruption in military procurement is an ancient and destructive tradition.” I start from the assumption that the PLA’s primary mission is to preserve CCP control of China.

Keeping the ships moving.

The Pentagon-Anthropic dispute.

The 45th U.S-Thailand Cobra Gold exercise once again kicks off—with 30 countries participating.

Space Force: “Officials insist there are no plans to deploy troops in orbit, but commercial infrastructure and cislunar ambitions are reshaping the debate[.]” I patiently await SMOD.

Star Orbital Wars.

On the bright side, we can shoot down small drones along our border.

The Army ordered a lot of Switchblade suicide anti-tank drones.

Sounds good to me: “The Royal Navy’s First Sea Lord Gen. Sir Gwyn Jenkins plans to hold a Navy summit in April as he calls on his service to take the lead in uniting Northern European navies against Russia’s growing threat in the Arctic and Atlantic.”

Remember when Pakistan backed the Taliban against America in Afghanistan? “Pakistan declared “open war” Friday on Afghanistan, after the two South Asian neighbors traded overnight attacks in a sharp escalation of their long-running dispute.”

AI is not a military planning breakthrough. Maybe stop calling it Artificial Intelligence. Call it Artificial FUBAR.

Is Cuba’s communist government shaky enough to fall?

We’ve had liberty so long that too many have forgotten to value it: “The real problem is the decline of the idea of liberty itself, as a governing principle, and of its advocates and defenders.” This is what Vance was talking about.

Apparently, China’s new carrier cannot launch and recover aircraft at the same time, meaning its sortie generation is just 60% of a Nimitz class.

Sh*t got real as America orders non-emergency staff and families in theIsrael embassy to evacuate.

Will Europeans replace the enablers that America’s military brings to the table to knit European NATO capabilities together?

Suspicious Russian real estate purchases in Finland. I assume this is a problem throughout the West. We really should all closely scrutinize such deals.

Here we go: “The US and Israel have launched an attack on Iran.” It appears one purpose is to give Iranians the chance to overthrow the mullah regime. But without tying our objective to their success. Targets hit may tell us if we think the mullah regime will fall.

Despite Ukraine’s modifications to the Abrams tanks it has received to counter drone attacks, Ukraine has failed to operate them in a combined arms team—the ultimate means of protection and lethality.

Shield: “Israel is to call up around 70,000 reservists, most of them air defence specialists and home guard troops, a military spokesman said on Saturday.”

Exactly! “The development of sophisticated anti-missile and counter-drone platforms could reintroduce maneuver warfare to Ukraine—and modern war planning more generally.”

Kharg Island has been a big target question for me. Destroying the oil export hub would hurt the mullahs. But it would also hurt a new government if the mullahs fall. Apparently we narrowly hit a power plant, meaning the hub is down but more easily restored.

Reading views of people I respect on the Iran strikes (or any other issue) doesn’t offend me. I view their differing views as challenges to my analysis and not a personal attack. Or they’re just wrong, of course—but not evil. I annoy people across the spectrum, so it is really a survival strategy.

I hope the Pentagon is alert to the potential threat worldwide from Iran using missiles or masses of small drones fired from standard shipping containers hidden on civilian ships.

Going to note that hurting Iran will reduce Iran’s ability to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition to hurt Ukraine.

The West’s real rare earths problem is not sources of the plentiful resources—it is processing that China dominates.

A kindergarten teacher would say Islam doesn’t play well with other religions: “Nigerian Christians are being slaughtered. Call it genocide.”

Chinese biolabs in America seem like a big effing deal to me.